Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Equity Bottom-Up

DFI Retail Group Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>DFI Retail’s strategic shift from portfolio investor to focused operator has unlocked over US$900 million, with US$600 million returned to shareholders via a US¢44.3 per share special dividend announced yesterday.</li>
<li>Underlying profit rose 39% in 1HFY2025, driven by lower financing costs and strong performance in the Health &amp; Beauty segment.</li>
<li>On its investor call, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dfi-retail-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7427:1" rel="noopener">DFI Retail Group Holdings (DFI SP)</a> acknowledged sector headwinds and outlined plans for cost control, margin focus, and digital monetisation to offset weak revenue growth.</li>
</ul>


DFI Retail’s strategic shift from portfolio investor to focused operator has unlocked over US$900 million, with US$600 million returned to shareholders via a US¢44.3 per share special dividend announced yesterday.
Underlying profit rose 39% in 1HFY2025, driven by lower financing costs and strong performance in the Health &amp; Beauty segment.
On its investor call, DFI Retail Group Holdings (DFI SP) acknowledged sector headwinds and outlined plans for cost control, margin focus, and digital monetisation to offset weak revenue growth.


DFI Retail (DFI SP): Up 90% in a Year + Special Dividend. Cash Out or Hold Tight?

<ul>
<li>The upcoming Johor Bahru-Singapore Rapid Transit System and the ease of cross-border movements could impact Singapore’s retail sector as more consumers may choose to spend across the border.</li>
<li>DFI Retail CEO cited this as rationale for exiting Singapore based grocery retail business under Cold Storage and Giant's brands. Sheng Siong group said it will carefully monitor this development.</li>
<li>Singapore retail prices for branded consumer discretionary and staples are between 30%-50% higher than in Malaysia. With greater ease of commute and shipping, this price differential may not be sustainable.</li>
</ul>


The upcoming Johor Bahru-Singapore Rapid Transit System and the ease of cross-border movements could impact Singapore’s retail sector as more consumers may choose to spend across the border.
DFI Retail CEO cited this as rationale for exiting Singapore based grocery retail business under Cold Storage and Giant's brands. Sheng Siong group said it will carefully monitor this development.
Singapore retail prices for branded consumer discretionary and staples are between 30%-50% higher than in Malaysia. With greater ease of commute and shipping, this price differential may not be sustainable.


Singapore Retail Sector: Will It Be Impacted by Improved Connectivity with Malaysia?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>'s current implied stub value is around its highest-ever level.</li>
<li>The simple ratio of JCNC/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> is around its highest level outside the 2008 GFC.</li>
<li>A weak Indonesian rupiah is likely a factor. Still, JCNC is trading rich to its NAV. A takeover from parent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> is idealistic.</li>
</ul>



Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)'s current implied stub value is around its highest-ever level.
The simple ratio of JCNC/Astra International (ASII IJ) is around its highest level outside the 2008 GFC.
A weak Indonesian rupiah is likely a factor. Still, JCNC is trading rich to its NAV. A takeover from parent Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) is idealistic.


Greatview Aseptic Packaging / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 27 January 2023, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson (JM SP)</a> entered an agreement with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-xinjufeng-technology-packaging-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36744:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Xinjufeng (301296 CH)</a> (XJF) to sell its 28.22% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">GAPack (468 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>That sale completed in September.  Last week, XJF requisitioned an EGM to consider appointing five new (&amp; friendly) directors, all-but taking control of the board. </li>
<li>CEO and founder Jeff Bi holds 9.65%. The question is: what are his options?</li>
</ul>


Back on the 27 January 2023, Jardine Matheson (JM SP) entered an agreement with Shandong Xinjufeng (301296 CH) (XJF) to sell its 28.22% stake in GAPack (468 HK). 
That sale completed in September.  Last week, XJF requisitioned an EGM to consider appointing five new (&amp; friendly) directors, all-but taking control of the board. 
CEO and founder Jeff Bi holds 9.65%. The question is: what are his options?


GAPack (468 HK): Unpacking XJF's Move To Send The Board Packing

<ul>
<li>According to Sing Tao, two PRC firms and a mainland bank have formed a consortium to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hongkong-land-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15465:1" rel="noopener">Hongkong Land (HKL SP)</a>'s 33-storey Three Exchange Square.</li>
<li>This "news" is straight out of left field. For its part, HKL said the market rumour is pure speculation.</li>
<li>HKL's P/B of 0.24x is closing in on its all-time low of 0.21x during the depths of Covid. </li>
</ul>


According to Sing Tao, two PRC firms and a mainland bank have formed a consortium to acquire Hongkong Land (HKL SP)'s 33-storey Three Exchange Square.
This "news" is straight out of left field. For its part, HKL said the market rumour is pure speculation.
HKL's P/B of 0.24x is closing in on its all-time low of 0.21x during the depths of Covid. 


Hongkong Land: Exchange Square Sale Would Be BIG News. (If True)

Singapore

Jardine Matheson Holdings Limited is a multinational enterprise with a portfolio of businesses focused on the Asia-Pacific region. The Group's activities include financial services, supermarkets, consumer marketing, engineering and construction, automobile trading, insurance broking, property investment, and hotels.

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Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)

DFI Retail (DFI SP): Up 90% in a Year + Special Dividend. Cash Out or Hold Tight?

Looking ahead, DFI faces a value-conscious consumer landscape and intense competition. With profit growth expected to moderate to single digits...

Devi Subhakesan

Singapore Retail Sector: Will It Be Impacted by Improved Connectivity with Malaysia?

Singapore's branded consumer retail margins and retail rental yield are at risk when easier border crossing access to Malaysia could prompt more...

Devi Subhakesan

Jardine Cycle & Carriage Is A Short

Jardine Cycle & Carriage's premium to NAV is not justifiable. I'd look to reverse the stub here - Short JCNC, Long Astra.

David Blennerhassett

GAPack (468 HK): Unpacking XJF's Move To Send The Board Packing

Nothing like bringing one of your customers - China Mengniu - on board (so to speak), both as a substantial shareholder (5.01%) and board member...

David Blennerhassett

Hongkong Land: Exchange Square Sale Would Be BIG News. (If True)

Reportedly two PRC firms and a mainland bank intend to acquire Hongkong Land''s Three Exchange Square. HKL said the rumor is pure speculation....

David Blennerhassett

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