Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We have been expecting near-term downside on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 since our February 27 Int’l Compass, when both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts.</li>
<li>Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we don't see it as a buying opportunity, and we believe $115 support is not likely to hold on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>Therefore, we are cautious and would get defensive, as we believe the odds of a more prolonged downturn in global equities are rising.</li>
</ul>


We have been expecting near-term downside on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 since our February 27 Int’l Compass, when both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts.
Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we don't see it as a buying opportunity, and we believe $115 support is not likely to hold on ACWI-US.
Therefore, we are cautious and would get defensive, as we believe the odds of a more prolonged downturn in global equities are rising.


Odds of a Prolonged Downturn Are Rising; We Are Cautious; Get Defensive

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avepoint-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37131:1" rel="noopener">AvePoint (AVPT US)</a> , a global provider of data security, governance, and resilience, aims to raise around US$300m in its Singapore secondary listing.</li>
<li>As of FY24, AP had over 25,000 customers who rely on its Confidence Platform to prepare, secure, and optimize their critical data across environments.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.</li>
</ul>



AvePoint (AVPT US) , a global provider of data security, governance, and resilience, aims to raise around US$300m in its Singapore secondary listing.
As of FY24, AP had over 25,000 customers who rely on its Confidence Platform to prepare, secure, and optimize their critical data across environments.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.


AvePoint SGX Secondary Listing - Strong Growth and Large Client Base but Unclear Metrics

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Reportedly (AFR), <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-telecommunications" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20:1" rel="noopener">Singtel (ST SP)</a></strong> is in advanced talks to sell Optus, Australia’s second-largest telco, to Brookfield for A$16bn-A$18bn. </li>
<li>SingTel quickly <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/SGX%20Announcement%2020240313.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=791796" target="_blank" rel="noopener">countered</a> there is no impending deal; and "<em>Optus remains an integral and strategic part of the Singtel Group and we are committed to Australia for the long term</em>."</li>
<li>Optus' EBITDA in 3Q24 and 9M24 fell 1.8% and 8.3% in S$ terms. Extrapolating out for FY24E suggests pricing under this (very) indicative Offer of around 7.6-8.6 turns of EBITDA.</li>
</ul>


Reportedly (AFR), Singtel (ST SP) is in advanced talks to sell Optus, Australia’s second-largest telco, to Brookfield for A$16bn-A$18bn. 
SingTel quickly countered there is no impending deal; and "Optus remains an integral and strategic part of the Singtel Group and we are committed to Australia for the long term."
Optus' EBITDA in 3Q24 and 9M24 fell 1.8% and 8.3% in S$ terms. Extrapolating out for FY24E suggests pricing under this (very) indicative Offer of around 7.6-8.6 turns of EBITDA.


Optus Sale Would Be A BIG Payday For SingTel

<ul>
<li>The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)</li>
<li>We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&amp;P 500, Japan's TOPIX, and Europe's EURO STOXX 50 to "roll over near current or marginally higher levels."</li>
<li>Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.</li>
</ul>


The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)
We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&amp;P 500, Japan's TOPIX, and Europe's EURO STOXX 50 to "roll over near current or marginally higher levels."
Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.


Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>XPeng and Baidu leading China's autonomous driving technology advancements in 2023</li><li>Malaysia's semiconductor sector set for growth in 3Q24 with talent recruitment and AI integration</li><li>Singtel partners with SK Telecom for 6G and AI innovation, while automakers persist in V2X development efforts</li></ul>

XPeng and Baidu leading China's autonomous driving technology advancements in 2023Malaysia's semiconductor sector set for growth in 3Q24 with talent recruitment and AI integrationSingtel partners with SK Telecom for 6G and AI innovation, while automakers persist in V2X development efforts

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (19-Jul-2024): China's auto exports, 2023.

Singapore

Singapore Telecommunications Limited wireless telecommunication services. The Company offers diverse range of services including fixed, mobile, data, internet, TV,  and digital solutions. Singapore Telecommunications serves customers worldwide.

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Singtel (ST SP)

Odds of a Prolonged Downturn Are Rising; We Are Cautious; Get Defensive

Odds of a Prolonged Downturn are Rising; We are Cautious; Get Defensive; $115 on ACWI-US Remains Key Level, and is at Risk of Breakdown. Actionable...

Vermilion Research

AvePoint SGX Secondary Listing - Strong Growth and Large Client Base but Unclear Metrics

AvePoint (AVPT US) , a global provider of data security, governance, and resilience, aims to raise around US$300m in its Singapore secondary listing.

Sumeet Singh

Optus Sale Would Be A BIG Payday For SingTel

SingTel is a deep value play, and an inexpensive entry into Bharti; yet the market pushes the implied stub further into negative territory. A sale...

David Blennerhassett

Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

Crude Oil Breaking Below 1.5-Year Support, Yet Another Recessionary Signal; Bearish Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside;...

Vermilion Research

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (19-Jul-2024): China's auto exports, 2023.

China advances in autonomous driving tech; Malaysia's semiconductor sector grows with AI; Taiwan backs AI supercomputers; Google Cloud Taiwan faces...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

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