Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)</li>
<li>We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&amp;P 500, Japan's TOPIX, and Europe's EURO STOXX 50 to "roll over near current or marginally higher levels."</li>
<li>Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.</li>
</ul>


The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)
We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&amp;P 500, Japan's TOPIX, and Europe's EURO STOXX 50 to "roll over near current or marginally higher levels."
Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.


Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-pacific-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:173:1" rel="noopener">First Pacific Co (142 HK)</a> is a Southeast Asian conglomerate that has been handicapped by its listing in the Hong Kong market over the last several years.</li>
<li>As Southeast Asian markets (Indonesia and Philippines) begin to re-rate on the back of a more accommodating Fed policy, First Pacific is beginning to participate in the uptrend.</li>
<li>Metro Pacific Investments Corp (MPIC), the second largest piece of the company's NAV has been active in acquiring more infrastructure assets since being privatized last year.</li>
</ul>



First Pacific Co (142 HK) is a Southeast Asian conglomerate that has been handicapped by its listing in the Hong Kong market over the last several years.
As Southeast Asian markets (Indonesia and Philippines) begin to re-rate on the back of a more accommodating Fed policy, First Pacific is beginning to participate in the uptrend.
Metro Pacific Investments Corp (MPIC), the second largest piece of the company's NAV has been active in acquiring more infrastructure assets since being privatized last year.


BUY: First Pacific Company (142 HK): Right Stock Trapped in the Wrong Market

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-post-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:150:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Post (SPOST SP)</a> is selling its key asset, Australian-based Freight Management Holdings (FMH), for an enterprise value of S$897.6mn, which will generate a gain on disposal of S$312.1mn.</li>
<li>SingPost will apply the proceeds to paring down its Aussie dollar-denominated debt. SingPost will also consider, in due course, the payment of a special dividend.</li>
<li>Once the FMH transaction completes, the board will "review and reset the Group’s strategic plan, with a continued focus on shareholder value".</li>
</ul>



Singapore Post (SPOST SP) is selling its key asset, Australian-based Freight Management Holdings (FMH), for an enterprise value of S$897.6mn, which will generate a gain on disposal of S$312.1mn.
SingPost will apply the proceeds to paring down its Aussie dollar-denominated debt. SingPost will also consider, in due course, the payment of a special dividend.
Once the FMH transaction completes, the board will "review and reset the Group’s strategic plan, with a continued focus on shareholder value".


SingPost (SPOST SP): What Next After FMH Sale?

Travis Lundy

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Last night, the Board of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a>  <a href="https://hub.optiwise.io/en/documents/126006/6443705A1ADCC43E2A43725E1ADAC538670F012A12A8B03D653207281ED9C34E6042702B6BDFC4311044072F6BADC53E144B6C1E4E8DCF396043755C1AD9C13A6741765E1EDBC33964366C1E4E8D_160720242124040612E.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> an amalgamation with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB)</a> and Tender Offers for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a> (at THB 216.30) </li>
<li>And <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thaicom-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18019:1" rel="noopener">Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB)</a> (THB 11.00) shares. This is really big news. It appears to try to cap years of re-arrangement of the capital structure. It's complicated.</li>
<li>But it is not fair. INTUCH shareholders lose 22% of earnings value per investment value in 2024. 20% in 2025. But, there may be a way to block it...</li>
</ul>


Last night, the Board of Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)  announced an amalgamation with Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB) and Tender Offers for Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB) (at THB 216.30) 
And Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB) (THB 11.00) shares. This is really big news. It appears to try to cap years of re-arrangement of the capital structure. It's complicated.
But it is not fair. INTUCH shareholders lose 22% of earnings value per investment value in 2024. 20% in 2025. But, there may be a way to block it...


Cascading Takeunders for INTUCH, ADVANC, and THCOM as GULF TB Seeks To "Restructure"

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vodafone-idea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15678:1" rel="noopener">Vodafone Idea (IDEA IN)</a> plans to raise around US$2.2bn via a follow-on public offering.</li>
<li>The deal has been in the works for years and proceeds will be used for capex and short-term debt repayment.</li>
<li>In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Vodafone Idea (IDEA IN) plans to raise around US$2.2bn via a follow-on public offering.
The deal has been in the works for years and proceeds will be used for capex and short-term debt repayment.
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the deal dynamics.


Vodafone Idea Placement - Very Well Flagged but Its Not Going to Fix a Whole Lot of Issues

Singapore

Singapore Telecommunications Limited wireless telecommunication services. The Company offers diverse range of services including fixed, mobile, data, internet, TV,  and digital solutions. Singapore Telecommunications serves customers worldwide.

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Singtel (ST SP)

Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

Crude Oil Breaking Below 1.5-Year Support, Yet Another Recessionary Signal; Bearish Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside;...

Vermilion Research

BUY: First Pacific Company (142 HK): Right Stock Trapped in the Wrong Market

Since our insight on 1st Pac last Sept., the stock has gained 33%. Company had solid 2024 results. MPIC, the undervalued Phil./Indonesia...

David Mudd

SingPost (SPOST SP): What Next After FMH Sale?

SingPost is probably worth picking up here. But it's not a strong conviction trade. The muted price action after announcing the FMH sale is...

David Blennerhassett

Cascading Takeunders for INTUCH, ADVANC, and THCOM as GULF TB Seeks To "Restructure"

This is a complicated multi-conditional deal - great for GULF bad for INTUCH - which appears to be "done" except for an inter-conditional aspect...

Travis Lundy

Vodafone Idea Placement - Very Well Flagged but Its Not Going to Fix a Whole Lot of Issues

Vodafone Idea (IDEA IN) plans to raise around US$2.2bn via a follow-on public offering. In this note, we talk about the deal dyanmics.

Sumeet Singh

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