Global Automotive Stocks/EV Focus/Event Driven, SC Capital

SC Capital

Global Automotive Stocks/EV Focus/Event Driven

Over 22 years covering Japanese equities on both the sell side and the buy side. 

Bottom-up Japan Equities Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tesla's Q1 operating income beat consensus estimates by 38% (ours by 26%), while GAAP net income came in 42% above consensus (36% above ours). </li>
<li>The highly focused automotive gross margin (Ex-ZEV credits) came to 30% versus consensus estimates of 27.8% and ours of 27.5%. Costs were booked in R&amp;D rather than COGS.</li>
<li>The results were solid, but the CFO cautioned on Q2 headwinds. Tesla was up by 5.6% in the after hours on these results, ignoring Tesla's cautious Q2 outlook. </li>
</ul>


Tesla's Q1 operating income beat consensus estimates by 38% (ours by 26%), while GAAP net income came in 42% above consensus (36% above ours). 
The highly focused automotive gross margin (Ex-ZEV credits) came to 30% versus consensus estimates of 27.8% and ours of 27.5%. Costs were booked in R&amp;D rather than COGS.
The results were solid, but the CFO cautioned on Q2 headwinds. Tesla was up by 5.6% in the after hours on these results, ignoring Tesla's cautious Q2 outlook. 


Tesla Q1 Results: Strong Beat But Cautious Outlook

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>LG Energy Solution (LGES) raised US$10.8bn in its South Korea IPO in Jan 22. Its three-month lockup is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>LGES is the EV battery unit of LG Chem. The company is a major supplier to customers including Tesla and General Motors.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>


LG Energy Solution (LGES) raised US$10.8bn in its South Korea IPO in Jan 22. Its three-month lockup is set to expire soon.
LGES is the EV battery unit of LG Chem. The company is a major supplier to customers including Tesla and General Motors.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


LG Energy IPO Lock-Up - Some Might Be Tempted to Book Profits

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Credit

<ul>
<li>
Tesla is losing ground in China, which it needs to juice its margins, create *all* its profits &amp; cash flow, &amp; fund most of billions spent on capex. </li>
<li>
Aging Model Y—its last and only thriving model—won't save it. 
</li>
<li>Sales in China were weakening even before what now has become an extended disruption as China fights its worst Covid surge in two years.</li>
</ul>



Tesla is losing ground in China, which it needs to juice its margins, create *all* its profits &amp; cash flow, &amp; fund most of billions spent on capex. 

Aging Model Y—its last and only thriving model—won't save it. 

Sales in China were weakening even before what now has become an extended disruption as China fights its worst Covid surge in two years.


Forget Elon's Twitter Spatter. Tesla's Got Trouble In China.

<ul>
<li>Tesla's Q1 results on April 20th (after market) will likely beat Street estimates, but the overshoot may not be as important as profit margins, which should decline versus Q4 2021.</li>
<li>Q2 outlook is grim, given the lockdown of Tesla's Shanghai factory. Even if output ramps up in May, exports--which are 40% of output--may not recover due to epic port congestion. </li>
<li>Tesla has 2 new factories ramping up as of this month. A slowdown at its most profitable plant amid start-up costs could raise the need for equity financing.  </li>
</ul>


Tesla's Q1 results on April 20th (after market) will likely beat Street estimates, but the overshoot may not be as important as profit margins, which should decline versus Q4 2021.
Q2 outlook is grim, given the lockdown of Tesla's Shanghai factory. Even if output ramps up in May, exports--which are 40% of output--may not recover due to epic port congestion. 
Tesla has 2 new factories ramping up as of this month. A slowdown at its most profitable plant amid start-up costs could raise the need for equity financing.  


Tesla Q1 Preview: 15% Beat at Best, But Margins & Guidance May Disappoint

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

<ul>
<li>Many automakers said they suspended their productions due to the lockdown of Shanghai.</li>
<li>A vice minister of Industry and Information Technology announced that 666 companies will resume production in Shanghai.</li>
<li>We believe it is hard to resume the automobile soon because of the complication of a vehicle and the traffic jams around Shanghai.</li>
</ul>


Many automakers said they suspended their productions due to the lockdown of Shanghai.
A vice minister of Industry and Information Technology announced that 666 companies will resume production in Shanghai.
We believe it is hard to resume the automobile soon because of the complication of a vehicle and the traffic jams around Shanghai.


Tesla (TSLA): Shanghai’s Lockdown Killing Whole Chinese Automobile Supply Chain

United States

Tesla Inc. operates as a multinational automotive and clean energy company. The Company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers.

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Tesla (TSLA US)

Tesla Q1 Results: Strong Beat But Cautious Outlook

Tesla's Q1 results blow away estimates due to one-off booking of regulatory credits & lower SG&A; CFO warns of headwinds in Q2.

SC Capital

LG Energy IPO Lock-Up - Some Might Be Tempted to Book Profits

LG Energy Solution (LGES) raised US$10.8bn in its South Korea IPO in Jan 22. Its three-month lockup is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

Forget Elon's Twitter Spatter. Tesla's Got Trouble In China.

Tesla is losing ground in China, which it needs to juice its margins, create all its profits & cash flow, & fund most of billions spent on capex....

Vicki Bryan

Tesla Q1 Preview: 15% Beat at Best, But Margins & Guidance May Disappoint

Tesla Q1 earnings come out tomorrow and this is a best estimate of what the numbers will be and what the stock reaction might be to the earnings call.

SC Capital

Tesla (TSLA): Shanghai’s Lockdown Killing Whole Chinese Automobile Supply Chain

Many automakers suspended their production due to the lockdown in Shanghai. Authorities will prepare a white list for production resumption....

Ming Lu

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tesla Q1 Results: Strong Beat But Cautious Outlook

Tesla's Q1 results blow away estimates due to one-off booking of regulatory credits & lower SG&A; CFO warns of headwinds in Q2.

SC Capital

LG Energy IPO Lock-Up - Some Might Be Tempted to Book Profits

LG Energy Solution (LGES) raised US$10.8bn in its South Korea IPO in Jan 22. Its three-month lockup is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

Forget Elon's Twitter Spatter. Tesla's Got Trouble In China.

Tesla is losing ground in China, which it needs to juice its margins, create *all* its profits & cash flow, & fund most of billions spent on capex....

Vicki Bryan

Tesla Q1 Preview: 15% Beat at Best, But Margins & Guidance May Disappoint

Tesla Q1 earnings come out tomorrow and this is a best estimate of what the numbers will be and what the stock reaction might be to the earnings call.

SC Capital

Tesla (TSLA): Shanghai’s Lockdown Killing Whole Chinese Automobile Supply Chain

Many automakers suspended their production due to the lockdown in Shanghai. Authorities will prepare a white list for production resumption....

Ming Lu

Tesla is losing ground in China, which it needs to juice its margins, create all its profits & cash flow, & fund most of billions spent on capex....