Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Equity Bottom-Up

Tesla Inc. operates as a multinational automotive and clean energy company. The Company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers.

<ul>
<li>Q1 Deliveries trailed plunging market consensus, my even lower number, and Tesla's expectations as sales crashed while it overproduced to a new record cumulative excess inventory which jumped 70% y/y</li>
<li>This doesn't square with Tesla's explanation that sales were hurt by ongoing production issues—much like when the company used the same excuse for the disappointing Q3 2023. </li>
<li>This time deliveries were much lower, the miss versus market expectations much worse, and the deep well of unsold inventories even more formidable.</li>
</ul>


Q1 Deliveries trailed plunging market consensus, my even lower number, and Tesla's expectations as sales crashed while it overproduced to a new record cumulative excess inventory which jumped 70% y/y
This doesn't square with Tesla's explanation that sales were hurt by ongoing production issues—much like when the company used the same excuse for the disappointing Q3 2023. 
This time deliveries were much lower, the miss versus market expectations much worse, and the deep well of unsold inventories even more formidable.


<ul>
<li>You know it's bad when Tesla's delivery trends blow through even my lowest estimates, which already had trailed market projections.</li>
<li>With no help from the hapless CyberTruck which, not surprisingly, continues to shoot Tesla in the foot.</li>
<li>See my latest Q1 and full-year estimates—which still prove to be too high.</li>
</ul>


You know it's bad when Tesla's delivery trends blow through even my lowest estimates, which already had trailed market projections.
With no help from the hapless CyberTruck which, not surprisingly, continues to shoot Tesla in the foot.
See my latest Q1 and full-year estimates—which still prove to be too high.


Credit

Twitter, Inc. provides online social networking and microblogging service. The Company offers users the ability to follow other users activity, read, and post tweets. Twitter serves customers worldwide.

<ul>
<li>I warned Elon Musk wouldn't help his beleaguered banks via refi of billions in losing LBO debt they foolishly fronted him to buy Twitter.</li>
<li>He can't even stop setting it and himself on fire every day.</li>
<li>Now he admits Twitter is being killed by the advertiser boycott he again caused—but takes no responsibility for his incendiary actions.</li>
</ul>


I warned Elon Musk wouldn't help his beleaguered banks via refi of billions in losing LBO debt they foolishly fronted him to buy Twitter.
He can't even stop setting it and himself on fire every day.
Now he admits Twitter is being killed by the advertiser boycott he again caused—but takes no responsibility for his incendiary actions.


Elon Musk's "Global Sewer" May Derail Bankers' Trying To Finally Dump Toxic Twitter LBO Debt

<ul>
<li>Tesla Q1 must be tracking even worse than I expected based on the uptick in Elon Musk's erratic behavior—his tell when bad news spirals out of control.</li>
<li>Wacko conspiracies, Putin propaganda, National security threat! At least he has his self-flattering alter ego Adrian Dittmann to boost his spirits. </li>
<li>Musk's companies continue to rack up safety violations, government investigations, and lawsuits, while he loses his massive pay package and tries to dodge the SEC investigation into his Twitter acquisition.</li>
</ul>


Tesla Q1 must be tracking even worse than I expected based on the uptick in Elon Musk's erratic behavior—his tell when bad news spirals out of control.
Wacko conspiracies, Putin propaganda, National security threat! At least he has his self-flattering alter ego Adrian Dittmann to boost his spirits. 
Musk's companies continue to rack up safety violations, government investigations, and lawsuits, while he loses his massive pay package and tries to dodge the SEC investigation into his Twitter acquisition.


Elon Musk Can't Be Trusted. He Also Can't Be Stopped, Apparently.

<ul>
<li>As I warned, troubled Q4 results were worse than investors expected, even with further drops in already plunging market expectations following disappointing deliveries dubiously called a "beat."</li>
<li>Even numbers as reported were weaker than reported when I stripped out subsidies and accounting boosts which mask underlying trouble—as is typical with Tesla (see attached model).</li>
<li>Tesla continues to foster the false impression that it's healthier, more profitable and more successful than it is, which greatly overstates its ability to weather the storm already upon it.</li>
</ul>


As I warned, troubled Q4 results were worse than investors expected, even with further drops in already plunging market expectations following disappointing deliveries dubiously called a "beat."
Even numbers as reported were weaker than reported when I stripped out subsidies and accounting boosts which mask underlying trouble—as is typical with Tesla (see attached model).
Tesla continues to foster the false impression that it's healthier, more profitable and more successful than it is, which greatly overstates its ability to weather the storm already upon it.


Tesla: Moving The Goalposts Works Until It Doesn't

Vicki Bryan founded Bond Angle in 2018, after more than 20 years in investment management and research, with a primary focus in high yield and distressed markets and selected coverage in investment-grade fixed income and equity. 

Vicki Bryan's Bond Angle provides insightful commentary and analysis on high yield bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts, noted for spotting management stumbles and shenanigans early and often. Follow Vicki at bondangle.substack.com and on Twitter @VickiBryanBondA and LinkedIn.

Vicki Bryan
Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC
• Bond Angle, LLC

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