Bond market data and technology, BondEvalue

BondEvalue

Bond market data and technology

BondEvalue is a Singapore-based Fintech that specializes in bond market data and technology. The company's information services business offers bond market data on hard-currency corporate & sovereign bonds across Asia, Middle East, Europe and the Americas. The data, which includes bond prices, yields, news and analytics, is offered to end investors via interactive Mobile and Web Apps. Investors can sign up for a free trial of the service either via the company's website (https://bondevalue.com) or by downloading the BondEvalue Mobile App (http://onelink.to/wej7jq). BondEvalue is also developing an electronic bond exchange, BondbloX in Singapore that allows investors to trade bonds electronically in smaller sizes (US$1,000 or equivalent). For more information, visit https://www.bondblox.com/

Bond Market Data and Technology

Credit

US markets ended lower on Friday mainly pulled down by the tech and consumer discretionary sectors.  S&amp;P was marginally down by 0.1% while Nasdaq was down by 0.5%. While Apple dropped 1.5%, Amazon 1.4% and Tesla 1%, Nvidia continued trending higher by 2.6%. US 10Y Treasury yields fell ~1bp to 1.62% as the Dallas Fed data indicated that they expected lower growth in jobs in the US for May, stating that while business hiring demand remains high, the supply of people willing or able to work is lower. In European Indices, FTSE ended flat while DAX and CAC were up 0.5% and 0.7%. US IG CDS spreads were 0.2bp wider and HY spreads were 1bp tighter. EU main spreads were 0.6bp wider and crossover spreads were 3.3bp wider. Asian equities have witnessed a mixed start – Nikkei and Shanghai are up 0.5% and 0.2%, Hang Seng is down ~0.3% with Asia ex-Japan CDS spreads widening 0.4bp.

Kaisa, ESR, CK Infra Launch Bonds; Macro; Rating Changes; New Issuer; Talking Heads; Top Gainers ...

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>China’s market regulator, the State Administration for Market Regulation, met with Tesla’s local subsidiaries in February over increased consumer reports of vehicle problems and later on issued a statement saying it places high importance on the Shanghai auto show incident. The authority said it has instructed local regulators to protect consumer interests.</p>
<p>Tesla is mainly a US company but with the growing wealth in China and Tesla's market positioning as the high-end EV, it has managed to gain substantial traction in China and doubled its sales contribution from 20 to 40% by March 2021. </p>
<p>BYD also announced that a total of <strong>1500</strong> Tang SUVs will be delivered to Norway before the end of the year as the company commits to accelerating its European and global strategies. <strong>The initial 100 cars are scheduled for delivery to Norwegian customers in the third quarter of this year</strong>.</p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>BYD is added into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> at the same time while other names are involved with one or some are two - moving from one to another. </p>
</div>
<p>BYD is trading at 84% PER discount, 83% EV/EBITDA discount, and 73% PBR discount to Tesla while its share price also lagged behind Tesla's in the past 6 months. </p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p><strong>Given BYD's foray into battery technology has started to yield fruit and Tesla's market share in China may be in danger, it is probably a good time to start shorting Tesla and long BYD. </strong></p>
</div>

China’s market regulator, the State Administration for Market Regulation, met with Tesla’s local subsidiaries in February over increased consumer reports of vehicle problems and later on issued a statement saying it places high importance on the Shanghai auto show incident. The authority said it has instructed local regulators to protect consumer interests.
Tesla is mainly a US company but with the growing wealth in China and Tesla's market positioning as the high-end EV, it has managed to gain substantial traction in China and doubled its sales contribution from 20 to 40% by March 2021. 
BYD also announced that a total of 1500 Tang SUVs will be delivered to Norway before the end of the year as the company commits to accelerating its European and global strategies. The initial 100 cars are scheduled for delivery to Norwegian customers in the third quarter of this year.

BYD is added into Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) and Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) at the same time while other names are involved with one or some are two - moving from one to another. 

BYD is trading at 84% PER discount, 83% EV/EBITDA discount, and 73% PBR discount to Tesla while its share price also lagged behind Tesla's in the past 6 months. 

Given BYD's foray into battery technology has started to yield fruit and Tesla's market share in China may be in danger, it is probably a good time to start shorting Tesla and long BYD. 


BYD (1211) Vs Tesla (TSLA): Fight over China

Consumer Discretionary / Industrials

Henry Kwon

<p>NIO closed at $34.06 on Friday, failing to close above its 10-Day EMA of $34.42, although the stock climbed as high as $34.78 intra-day. DCF analysis using consensus FCF forecast suggests that currently NIO's shares may be implying a 18.1% perpetuity growth outlook which would be bearish if the yield curve continues to steepen. While fundamental valuation implications do not necessarily become reflected in stock prices over a short period, Friday's technical chart alignment could signal further bearish short term price action.</p><ul>
<li>
<strong>Bearish Technical Alignment on Friday</strong>: Dark Cloud Cover was formed on the daily candlestick chart on Friday. While the pattern needs to be confirmed on Monday, it may be a new bearish signal to what looks like an impending death cross that I mentioned in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nio-is-it-re-entry-point-yet" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51824" rel="noopener">NIO: Is It Re-Entry Point Yet?</a> on May 20.</li>
<li>
<strong>DCF Analysis Reality Check: </strong>At current share price, 3-year consensus FCF forecast and 1Q21 balance sheet details suggest that the market may be implying a 18.1% perpetuity growth rate and 139x terminal EBITDA multiple assumption. Long term fundamental valuations therefore would suggest there is further downside risk, but having said this, I would point out that other catalysts can often impact short term price action more strongly.</li>
<li>
<strong>Systemic Risk could be a greater concern than company risk at this point</strong>: NIO remains a high beta EV play. While the 10-year Treasury yield looked more stable on Friday, any sudden spike in the Treasury yield can have a sharp negative effect on EV stock valuations.</li>
<li>
<strong>A Short term Bullish Scenario</strong>: If the stock manages to reject the Dark Cloud Cover formation on Monday and close above its 10 day EMA, the move may accelerate price recovery with the first resistance level coming in at the 21 day EMA currently fixed at $35.68. Clearing these two hurdles may accelerate the upward momentum to the $38.19 - $38.67 zone, which represent the stock's current 200 DMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement, respectively.</li>
<li>
<strong>A Short term Bearish Scenario</strong>: If Dark Cloud Cover is confirmed first support should come in at the stock's 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement at $30.98 which basically held recently. If the stock breaks below this level, however, the decline may accelerate towards the $20-22 zone last seen in October, 2020, over the next few trading sessions.</li>
</ul><p>Operating environment for NIO remains constructive. 3 month moving average sales volume comparison with XPEV and TSLA suggests NIO's volume sales have been more stable than its peers. Continuing sales growth in the context of overall improvement in 2021 auto demand and continuing tailwinds from the new car effect (EC 6) looks constructive for earnings implications over the next 1-2 quarters at current pace. At this point, therefore, we see more price risk stemming more from systemic risk than company risk.</p>

NIO closed at $34.06 on Friday, failing to close above its 10-Day EMA of $34.42, although the stock climbed as high as $34.78 intra-day. DCF analysis using consensus FCF forecast suggests that currently NIO's shares may be implying a 18.1% perpetuity growth outlook which would be bearish if the yield curve continues to steepen. While fundamental valuation implications do not necessarily become reflected in stock prices over a short period, Friday's technical chart alignment could signal further bearish short term price action.

Bearish Technical Alignment on Friday: Dark Cloud Cover was formed on the daily candlestick chart on Friday. While the pattern needs to be confirmed on Monday, it may be a new bearish signal to what looks like an impending death cross that I mentioned in NIO: Is It Re-Entry Point Yet? on May 20.

DCF Analysis Reality Check: At current share price, 3-year consensus FCF forecast and 1Q21 balance sheet details suggest that the market may be implying a 18.1% perpetuity growth rate and 139x terminal EBITDA multiple assumption. Long term fundamental valuations therefore would suggest there is further downside risk, but having said this, I would point out that other catalysts can often impact short term price action more strongly.

Systemic Risk could be a greater concern than company risk at this point: NIO remains a high beta EV play. While the 10-year Treasury yield looked more stable on Friday, any sudden spike in the Treasury yield can have a sharp negative effect on EV stock valuations.

A Short term Bullish Scenario: If the stock manages to reject the Dark Cloud Cover formation on Monday and close above its 10 day EMA, the move may accelerate price recovery with the first resistance level coming in at the 21 day EMA currently fixed at $35.68. Clearing these two hurdles may accelerate the upward momentum to the $38.19 - $38.67 zone, which represent the stock's current 200 DMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement, respectively.

A Short term Bearish Scenario: If Dark Cloud Cover is confirmed first support should come in at the stock's 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement at $30.98 which basically held recently. If the stock breaks below this level, however, the decline may accelerate towards the $20-22 zone last seen in October, 2020, over the next few trading sessions.
Operating environment for NIO remains constructive. 3 month moving average sales volume comparison with XPEV and TSLA suggests NIO's volume sales have been more stable than its peers. Continuing sales growth in the context of overall improvement in 2021 auto demand and continuing tailwinds from the new car effect (EC 6) looks constructive for earnings implications over the next 1-2 quarters at current pace. At this point, therefore, we see more price risk stemming more from systemic risk than company risk.

NIO: Dark Cloud Cover with Close Below the 10-Day EMA on Friday May Add A Short Term Bearish Signal

Chief Economist

Diana Choyleva

Enodo Economics

Enodo Economics is an independent macroeconomic forecasting company that untangles complexity, challenges the consensus, and makes sense of the future. Our focus is on China – one of the most misunderstood economies in the world, but one of the most important to figure out.  Enodo’s chief economist, Diana Choyleva, has been analysing China for almost 20 years, while Enodo’s team boasts a combined 140 years’ experience covering China’s economy, politics and markets. 

Macroeconomics

<h2>China News That Matters</h2><ul>
<li>Cracking down on cryptocurrency</li>
<li>And on Big Tech too</li>
<li>World-beating vaccination rates</li>
<li>“Cold War mindset and gross interference” </li>
<li>You sent your battleship!</li>
</ul><div class="content-remarks"><p>In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.</p></div>

China News That Matters
Cracking down on cryptocurrency
And on Big Tech too
World-beating vaccination rates
“Cold War mindset and gross interference” 
You sent your battleship!
In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.

Crypto/ Tech/ Covid-19/ US-China/ UK-China

US markets broke the three day falling streak led by Tech stocks. S&amp;P ended higher by 1% and Nasdaq was up by 1.8%. Tesla gained 4.1%, Apple rose 2.1% and Nvidia was up 3.9%. US 10Y Treasury yields fell ~3bp to 1.63% on the back of weaker than expected US Philly Fed manufacturing reading in May at 31.2, falling from 50.2 in April. On the other hand, US jobless claims dropped to 444k, better than expectations and indicating labor market momentum. European Indices were also up with DAX leading the gains, up 1.7% followed by CAC at 1.3% and FTSE at 1%. US IG CDS spreads were 0.7bp tighter and HY spreads were 4.4bp tighter. EU main spreads were 0.5bp tighter and crossover spreads widened 3bp. Asian equities started the day modestly lower ~0.3% with Asia ex-Japan CDS spreads widening 3.6bp.

Macro; Rating Changes; New Issues; Talking Heads; Top Gainers & Losers

United States

Tesla Inc. operates as a multinational automotive and clean energy company. The Company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers.

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Tesla (TSLA US)

Kaisa, ESR, CK Infra Launch Bonds; Macro; Rating Changes; New Issuer; Talking Heads; Top Gainers ...

US markets ended lower on Friday mainly pulled down by the tech and consumer discretionary sectors. S&P was marginally down by 0.1% while...

BondEvalue

BYD (1211) Vs Tesla (TSLA): Fight over China

Given BYD's foray into battery technology has started to yield fruit and Tesla's market share in China may be in danger, it is probably a good time...

Henry Soediarko

NIO: Dark Cloud Cover with Close Below the 10-Day EMA on Friday May Add A Short Term Bearish Signal

Dark Cloud Cover bearish reversal pattern was formed on Friday's daily candlestick chart, while a DCF analysis based on current 3-year consensus...

Henry Kwon

Crypto/ Tech/ Covid-19/ US-China/ UK-China

In my weekly digest, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and...

Diana Choyleva

Macro; Rating Changes; New Issues; Talking Heads; Top Gainers & Losers

US markets broke the three day falling streak led by Tech stocks. S&P ended higher by 1% and Nasdaq was up by 1.8%. Tesla gained 4.1%, Apple...

BondEvalue

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