Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

The <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/89efb01d-b5f9-427b-b779-b118cd4383f0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FT has an article</a> out saying that the Japanese government had directed some initial feelers towards Honda and Nissan raising the possibility of a merger between the two companies. This is not especially surprising to us and we had touted the possibility earlier this year as being more plausible than it would appear on the surface. According to the FT, the idea was rather roundly shot down by both sides. This too is not particularly surprising, but we believe that while now is not the ideal time for a merger, it is one of the few options which could help the companies regain vigour… if done correctly, which will be difficult.

The FT has an article out saying that the Japanese government had directed some initial feelers towards Honda and Nissan raising the possibility of a merger between the two companies. This is not especially surprising to us and we had touted the possibility earlier this year as being more plausible than it would appear on the surface. According to the FT, the idea was rather roundly shot down by both sides. This too is not particularly surprising, but we believe that while now is not the ideal time for a merger, it is one of the few options which could help the companies regain vigour… if done correctly, which will be difficult.

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

Equity Bottom-Up

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://api2.sgx.com/sites/default/files/2020-08/Megroup-CEO.jpg" class="editor-image img-responsive"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Megroup-CEO</div>

Engineer Wong Cheong Chee is a man who appreciates his machines.&nbsp;
As a testament to this, the Executive Chairman and CEO of SGX-listed automotive component manufacturer and dealer MeGroup Ltd spent more than four decades of his career in manufacturing.
After graduating from the University of Malaya with a degree in Mechanical Engineering in 1970, Wong started off by learning the ropes of business on the factory floor.&nbsp;
"The early years were foundation years for me," the 73-year-old recalled. “Back in those days, I was always fiddling with mechanical parts. I came to understand the role that machines and automation played in the production process, and also learned to maintain or calibrate machines to fit the factory's production needs."
"You could say that by now, I know everything about machines, since I always talk to them," he added,&nbsp;tongue firmly in cheek.
In 1995, Wong co-founded Menang Nusantara Sdn Bhd in a burst of restless&nbsp;energy, shortly after a RM60 million turnover company he co-founded – Paragon Union Bhd – was listed on Bursa Malaysia. "After Paragon went public, I briefly toyed with the idea of retiring," he recalled.
But Wong – then 48 – couldn't sit still. "I was young and restless, and I wanted to keep working, so I started Menang Nusantara with a friend. I was betting on my years of industry experience and strong relationships with my customers to make this venture work."
Menang Nusantara was initially a pure manufacturing business, and later expanded to include a dealership arm to diversify its revenues.
The journey proved to be a bumpy one, but Wong has&nbsp;no regrets. "Over the years, we experienced numerous recessions in Malaysia, more than four or five. But we pulled through each and every one of them, because of teamwork,” he recalled.
“I remember one setback we faced – a factory fire in 2016. We were able to recover and rebuild the plant in just two months, thanks to the team."
Wong's consistent comebacks from his challenges has earned him the nickname of “phoenix” among his peers, in reference to the mythical bird that rises from the ashes each time in a cycle of rebirth and regeneration.
“The highlights of my 40-year journey were the occasions when I was able to pull myself out of the pit, emerging bigger and stronger from those turbulent times,” he added.
Prudent Management
Wong has also gleaned precious lessons from each experience – a key one being prudent cash flow management. "Your operations need to be sustainable, and for that to happen, cost controls are critical. To be able to tide through price wars and downturns, you must ensure you’re not overspending."
“And every day can be a challenge, because you don’t know what’s going to come, and you need to prepare yourself for battle.”
Another highlight, he discovered, was the cohesiveness of the MeGroup team, which played an essential role when it came to problem-solving.
“When you’re faced with a crisis and sleepless nights, it’s teamwork that makes a difference – when the team comes up with a consistent strategy and moves forward in one direction.”
Listed on SGX Catalist in October 2018 as MeGroup Ltd, the Group comprises two business divisions – Manufacturing and Dealership.&nbsp;For the full year ended 31 March 2020, MeGroup reported a revenue of RM245.8 million on a net profit of RM1.2 million.&nbsp;
Its Manufacturing unit specialises in Noise, Vibration and Harshness (NVH) and non-NVH components, mostly for the automotive industry. NVH parts include headliners and engine outers that are incorporated into various sections of the automobile, such as dashboard, hood and boot, while non-NVH components include parcel trays and board assembly decks.
The Dealership business owns a portfolio of six automotive brands, ranging from Peugeot and Mazda to Hyundai and Honda, with eight dealership outlets, and one undergoing construction.
Although the outlook for Malaysia’s automotive industry has been clouded by the impact of COVID-19 and a weak economic backdrop, transportation remains a necessity. Even with new mobility solutions, the country still requires private vehicles, Wong pointed out.
Last year, the government announced plans to develop a third national car under the National Automotive Policy. MeGroup has registered its interest as a vendor to design and make NVH and non-NVH parts for the project – if it does materialise.
Reinvent, Recreate
At the same time, the Group is exploring other industries to broaden its revenues and achieve long-term sustainable growth. It is already supplying NVH components to Johnson Controls Hitachi, a heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) manufacturer.
“Our penetration into the HVAC industry will allow us to bring our manufacturing and production capabilities to other HVAC players,” Wong added.
“Another strategy is to increase the number of products MeGroup can manufacture with its current capabilities, and supply to other sectors, such as the mattress industry, and floor carpeting services for offices and hotels,” Wong noted.
Under its dealership arm, the Group plans to obtain new brand partnerships and acquire other existing dealerships to expand organically and inorganically.
One such move was its recent contract win from Mitsubishi Motors to operate a dealership under their brand in Kuala Selangor. However, due to COVID-19, the construction and start of operations&nbsp;have been delayed&nbsp;to the July-September quarter of this year.
“MeGroup continues to be invited to bid for new NVH and non-NVH projects for new car models from different automobile brands,” Wong said. “We’re also exploring new potential business opportunities and new service offerings in the dealership outlets.”
The Group is looking to grow beyond domestic shores. “We continually seek opportunities in ASEAN to drive growth through greenfield or strategic M&amp;A possibilities. With neighbouring markets expanding into the automotive sector, this offers opportunities for us to scale our operations,” he added.
To lay the foundation for sustainable growth, MeGroup will focus on investing in new manufacturing technologies, as well as the set-up and/or acquisition of research labs. This year, it became the only NVH supplier in Malaysia to build its own sound testing facility.
“The lab allows us to innovate and test our products before mass production. We will be able to rethink, reinvent and recreate our NVH and non-NVH components, so as to be at the forefront of technology, and stay ahead of our competitors.”
Cash-Generating
Meanwhile, the biggest near-term challenge – apart from continuous price competition – is COVID-19, Wong admitted.
“Our operations were frozen for nearly three months. Since then, about 70% of our sales and deliveries have resumed. We expect a tough outlook for the rest of the year, but hopefully, the beginnings of a recovery might materialise in the first quarter of next year,” he noted.
With this downtime, MeGroup has taken the opportunity to implement new methods of operating, such as boosting its online presence through social media platforms and other digital marketing strategies. It is also improving or streamlining work processes to increase efficiency and reduce operating costs.
Industry peers have also upped the ante by slashing prices. “This is where our R&amp;D lab – which can provide us with in-house and proprietary technologies – comes in. This will set us apart from the competition.”
Other competitive strengths include MeGroup’s established network and long-standing working partnerships with its brand principals. “Our businesses are cash-generating, with stable recurring income streams and negligible collection issues,” Wong pointed out.
As at 31 March 2020, MeGroup had cash and cash equivalents of RM12.5 million, compared with RM16.9 million in the year-ago period.
“We strive to be asset-light, so we can generate faster ROI from our businesses, and maintain flexibility and liquidity to move into opportunities that may arise,” he added, referring to return on investment, a financial ratio that compares the gain or loss from an investment relative to its cost.
Despite the day-to-day challenges, the self-confessed workaholic sleeps like a log every night. “Work is what keeps me going,” he chuckled.
“I’ve tried to retire, but failed every time. It’s in my blood – I’m still kicking at 73, and if I don’t work, I feel sick!”
Nonetheless, the father of two boys and a girl – aged 37 to 44 – has put a proper succession plan in place. “My kids are working in MeGroup and running the show. Hopefully, it will be a smooth transition when they finally take over the reins.”
Whatever happens, Wong has taught his children to always remain focused. “I also want them to keep a low profile – be humble, don’t be a show-off, and concentrate on the things that matter.”
“Those are essentially the key principles of life.”
MeGroup Ltd
MeGroup is a component manufacturer and dealer in the automotive industry. Under its Manufacturing business, MeGroup specialises in manufacturing noise, vibration and harshness (NVH) and non-NVH components, primarily for the automotive industry in Malaysia. It has diversified into supplying NVH parts to Johnson Controls Hitachi, a heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) manufacturer. For its Dealership business, MeGroup owns and operates i) three Peugeot dealerships; ii) two Honda dealerships; iii) one Mazda dealership; iv) one Hyundai dealership; v) one Ford dealership; and vi) one Mitsubishi Motors dealership in Malaysia. MeGroup maintains long-standing partnerships with its manufacturing customers, and is an Approved Supplier to Proton, Perodua, Honda, Mazda among other major car makers, as well as Johnson Controls Hitachi. The Group also maintains established relationships with its dealership principals.
The company website is: <a href="https://me-grp.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">me-grp.com</a>. Click&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sgx.com/securities/equities/SJY" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>&nbsp;for the company's StockFacts page. For the year ended 31 March 2020 financial results, click&nbsp;<a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/MeGroup%20Ltd_FY2020%20Financial%20Results%20Announcement_20200717.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=624068" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.
&nbsp;
About&nbsp;kopi-C: the Company brew
Text: Jennifer LH Tan Photo: Company file kopi-C&nbsp;is a regular column on the SGX Research website that features C-level executives of leading companies listed on Singapore Exchange. These interviews are profiles of senior management aimed at helping investors better understand the individuals who run these corporations. For previous editions of&nbsp;kopi-C: the Company brew,&nbsp;please click&nbsp;<a href="http://edm.sgx.com/a/hBd-CspB86%24MfB90noBAABR54ZH/link10" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. &nbsp; For more information, or if you would like your senior executives to be featured on SGX Market Dialogues, please send suggestions to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/jennifer.t@sgx.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">jennifer.t@sgx.com</a>.


Megroup-CEO

Engineer Wong Cheong Chee is a man who appreciates his machines.&nbsp;
As a testament to this, the Executive Chairman and CEO of SGX-listed automotive component manufacturer and dealer MeGroup Ltd spent more than four decades of his career in manufacturing.
After graduating from the University of Malaya with a degree in Mechanical Engineering in 1970, Wong started off by learning the ropes of business on the factory floor.&nbsp;
"The early years were foundation years for me," the 73-year-old recalled. “Back in those days, I was always fiddling with mechanical parts. I came to understand the role that machines and automation played in the production process, and also learned to maintain or calibrate machines to fit the factory's production needs."
"You could say that by now, I know everything about machines, since I always talk to them," he added,&nbsp;tongue firmly in cheek.
In 1995, Wong co-founded Menang Nusantara Sdn Bhd in a burst of restless&nbsp;energy, shortly after a RM60 million turnover company he co-founded – Paragon Union Bhd – was listed on Bursa Malaysia. "After Paragon went public, I briefly toyed with the idea of retiring," he recalled.
But Wong – then 48 – couldn't sit still. "I was young and restless, and I wanted to keep working, so I started Menang Nusantara with a friend. I was betting on my years of industry experience and strong relationships with my customers to make this venture work."
Menang Nusantara was initially a pure manufacturing business, and later expanded to include a dealership arm to diversify its revenues.
The journey proved to be a bumpy one, but Wong has&nbsp;no regrets. "Over the years, we experienced numerous recessions in Malaysia, more than four or five. But we pulled through each and every one of them, because of teamwork,” he recalled.
“I remember one setback we faced – a factory fire in 2016. We were able to recover and rebuild the plant in just two months, thanks to the team."
Wong's consistent comebacks from his challenges has earned him the nickname of “phoenix” among his peers, in reference to the mythical bird that rises from the ashes each time in a cycle of rebirth and regeneration.
“The highlights of my 40-year journey were the occasions when I was able to pull myself out of the pit, emerging bigger and stronger from those turbulent times,” he added.
Prudent Management
Wong has also gleaned precious lessons from each experience – a key one being prudent cash flow management. "Your operations need to be sustainable, and for that to happen, cost controls are critical. To be able to tide through price wars and downturns, you must ensure you’re not overspending."
“And every day can be a challenge, because you don’t know what’s going to come, and you need to prepare yourself for battle.”
Another highlight, he discovered, was the cohesiveness of the MeGroup team, which played an essential role when it came to problem-solving.
“When you’re faced with a crisis and sleepless nights, it’s teamwork that makes a difference – when the team comes up with a consistent strategy and moves forward in one direction.”
Listed on SGX Catalist in October 2018 as MeGroup Ltd, the Group comprises two business divisions – Manufacturing and Dealership.&nbsp;For the full year ended 31 March 2020, MeGroup reported a revenue of RM245.8 million on a net profit of RM1.2 million.&nbsp;
Its Manufacturing unit specialises in Noise, Vibration and Harshness (NVH) and non-NVH components, mostly for the automotive industry. NVH parts include headliners and engine outers that are incorporated into various sections of the automobile, such as dashboard, hood and boot, while non-NVH components include parcel trays and board assembly decks.
The Dealership business owns a portfolio of six automotive brands, ranging from Peugeot and Mazda to Hyundai and Honda, with eight dealership outlets, and one undergoing construction.
Although the outlook for Malaysia’s automotive industry has been clouded by the impact of COVID-19 and a weak economic backdrop, transportation remains a necessity. Even with new mobility solutions, the country still requires private vehicles, Wong pointed out.
Last year, the government announced plans to develop a third national car under the National Automotive Policy. MeGroup has registered its interest as a vendor to design and make NVH and non-NVH parts for the project – if it does materialise.
Reinvent, Recreate
At the same time, the Group is exploring other industries to broaden its revenues and achieve long-term sustainable growth. It is already supplying NVH components to Johnson Controls Hitachi, a heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) manufacturer.
“Our penetration into the HVAC industry will allow us to bring our manufacturing and production capabilities to other HVAC players,” Wong added.
“Another strategy is to increase the number of products MeGroup can manufacture with its current capabilities, and supply to other sectors, such as the mattress industry, and floor carpeting services for offices and hotels,” Wong noted.
Under its dealership arm, the Group plans to obtain new brand partnerships and acquire other existing dealerships to expand organically and inorganically.
One such move was its recent contract win from Mitsubishi Motors to operate a dealership under their brand in Kuala Selangor. However, due to COVID-19, the construction and start of operations&nbsp;have been delayed&nbsp;to the July-September quarter of this year.
“MeGroup continues to be invited to bid for new NVH and non-NVH projects for new car models from different automobile brands,” Wong said. “We’re also exploring new potential business opportunities and new service offerings in the dealership outlets.”
The Group is looking to grow beyond domestic shores. “We continually seek opportunities in ASEAN to drive growth through greenfield or strategic M&amp;A possibilities. With neighbouring markets expanding into the automotive sector, this offers opportunities for us to scale our operations,” he added.
To lay the foundation for sustainable growth, MeGroup will focus on investing in new manufacturing technologies, as well as the set-up and/or acquisition of research labs. This year, it became the only NVH supplier in Malaysia to build its own sound testing facility.
“The lab allows us to innovate and test our products before mass production. We will be able to rethink, reinvent and recreate our NVH and non-NVH components, so as to be at the forefront of technology, and stay ahead of our competitors.”
Cash-Generating
Meanwhile, the biggest near-term challenge – apart from continuous price competition – is COVID-19, Wong admitted.
“Our operations were frozen for nearly three months. Since then, about 70% of our sales and deliveries have resumed. We expect a tough outlook for the rest of the year, but hopefully, the beginnings of a recovery might materialise in the first quarter of next year,” he noted.
With this downtime, MeGroup has taken the opportunity to implement new methods of operating, such as boosting its online presence through social media platforms and other digital marketing strategies. It is also improving or streamlining work processes to increase efficiency and reduce operating costs.
Industry peers have also upped the ante by slashing prices. “This is where our R&amp;D lab – which can provide us with in-house and proprietary technologies – comes in. This will set us apart from the competition.”
Other competitive strengths include MeGroup’s established network and long-standing working partnerships with its brand principals. “Our businesses are cash-generating, with stable recurring income streams and negligible collection issues,” Wong pointed out.
As at 31 March 2020, MeGroup had cash and cash equivalents of RM12.5 million, compared with RM16.9 million in the year-ago period.
“We strive to be asset-light, so we can generate faster ROI from our businesses, and maintain flexibility and liquidity to move into opportunities that may arise,” he added, referring to return on investment, a financial ratio that compares the gain or loss from an investment relative to its cost.
Despite the day-to-day challenges, the self-confessed workaholic sleeps like a log every night. “Work is what keeps me going,” he chuckled.
“I’ve tried to retire, but failed every time. It’s in my blood – I’m still kicking at 73, and if I don’t work, I feel sick!”
Nonetheless, the father of two boys and a girl – aged 37 to 44 – has put a proper succession plan in place. “My kids are working in MeGroup and running the show. Hopefully, it will be a smooth transition when they finally take over the reins.”
Whatever happens, Wong has taught his children to always remain focused. “I also want them to keep a low profile – be humble, don’t be a show-off, and concentrate on the things that matter.”
“Those are essentially the key principles of life.”
MeGroup Ltd
MeGroup is a component manufacturer and dealer in the automotive industry. Under its Manufacturing business, MeGroup specialises in manufacturing noise, vibration and harshness (NVH) and non-NVH components, primarily for the automotive industry in Malaysia. It has diversified into supplying NVH parts to Johnson Controls Hitachi, a heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) manufacturer. For its Dealership business, MeGroup owns and operates i) three Peugeot dealerships; ii) two Honda dealerships; iii) one Mazda dealership; iv) one Hyundai dealership; v) one Ford dealership; and vi) one Mitsubishi Motors dealership in Malaysia. MeGroup maintains long-standing partnerships with its manufacturing customers, and is an Approved Supplier to Proton, Perodua, Honda, Mazda among other major car makers, as well as Johnson Controls Hitachi. The Group also maintains established relationships with its dealership principals.
The company website is: me-grp.com.  Click&nbsp;here&nbsp;for the company's StockFacts page.  For the year ended 31 March 2020 financial results, click&nbsp;here.
&nbsp;
About&nbsp;kopi-C: the Company brew
Text: Jennifer LH Tan Photo: Company file  kopi-C&nbsp;is a regular column on the SGX Research website that features C-level executives of leading companies listed on Singapore Exchange. These interviews are profiles of senior management aimed at helping investors better understand the individuals who run these corporations.  For previous editions of&nbsp;kopi-C: the Company brew,&nbsp;please click&nbsp;here. &nbsp;  For more information, or if you would like your senior executives to be featured on SGX Market Dialogues, please send suggestions to&nbsp;jennifer.t@sgx.com.

MeGroup Revs Up Sustainable Growth Engines

While Mazda’s stock price and earnings have underwhelmed, we believe the company continues to make significant progress in strengthening its business below the surface. The recent COVID driven selloff has now pushed the stock price down to about 0.36x book and for all of its struggles, we believe Mazda deserves to trade at a higher multiple purely based on product quality. However, we also see the company turning around its sales, distribution and after sales service which had traditionally been its Achilles heel. For this reason, we believe there is very significant upside.

While Mazda’s stock price and earnings have underwhelmed, we believe the company continues to make significant progress in strengthening its business below the surface. The recent COVID driven selloff has now pushed the stock price down to about 0.36x book and for all of its struggles, we believe Mazda deserves to trade at a higher multiple purely based on product quality. However, we also see the company turning around its sales, distribution and after sales service which had traditionally been its Achilles heel. For this reason, we believe there is very significant upside.

Mazda – Rising Repeat Rate Makes This Our Top Pick in the Sector

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/490/original/2020-07-29_05-46-56.png?1595972235" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148490"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/491/original/2020-07-29_05-47-39.png?1595972270" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148491"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>OUTLIERS - This quarter's results are highlighting the wide variances in performance between companies in the same thematic basket - in yesterday's case - the SPE business of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:280:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)</a> and the FA business of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fanuc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:752:1" rel="noopener">Fanuc (6954 JP)</a>.  The latter's forecast, if achieved, would take their incremental operating profit margin to -2,631. While the market has over-reacted to TEL's stability, many, including this writer, have been overly complacent about the pace Fanuc's recovery. The SPE and FAA business cycles are no longer synchronised, and Fanuc's valuations have yet to adjust to that new reality.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/493/original/2020-07-29_06-48-44.png?1595972935" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148493"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/494/original/2020-07-29_06-49-07.png?1595972973" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148494"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><div>DAILY STATS</div><hr><div>55 Quarterly Results</div><div><ul>
<li>
Results Score: 14 Positive / 1 Neutral / 40 Negative</li>
<li>
Average Results Score Change: -3.4</li>
<li>
Average % Change in Revenue: -11.8% Quarter YoY / -2.4% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.0ppt</li>
<li>
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 31%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div> 23 Annual • 17 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</div><div><ul>
<li>
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 7 Positive / 0 Neutral / 16 Negative</li>
<li>
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 4 Positive / 0 Neutral / 13 Negative</li>
<li>
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -9.8</li>
</ul></div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsOUTLIERS - This quarter's results are highlighting the wide variances in performance between companies in the same thematic basket - in yesterday's case - the SPE business of Tokyo Electron (8035 JP) and the FA business of Fanuc (6954 JP).  The latter's forecast, if achieved, would take their incremental operating profit margin to -2,631. While the market has over-reacted to TEL's stability, many, including this writer, have been overly complacent about the pace Fanuc's recovery. The SPE and FAA business cycles are no longer synchronised, and Fanuc's valuations have yet to adjust to that new reality.Source • Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATS55 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 14 Positive / 1 Neutral / 40 Negative

Average Results Score Change: -3.4

Average % Change in Revenue: -11.8% Quarter YoY / -2.4% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.0ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 31%
 23 Annual • 17 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 7 Positive / 0 Neutral / 16 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 4 Positive / 0 Neutral / 13 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -9.8


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 28th July - TEL, Fanuc, Canon, Nissan, Shin-Etsu, Omron

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/266/original/2020-07-28_06-42-44.png?1595886197" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148266"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/267/original/2020-07-28_06-47-55.png?1595886499" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148267"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/koei-tecmo-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20277:1" rel="noopener">Koei Tecmo (3635 JP)</a> - Koei Tecmo produced the most-improved Results Score among large-cap companies yesterday. Colleague <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/mio-kato-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:713" rel="noopener">Mio Kato</a>'s April Insight<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/koei-tecmo-plenty-of-headroom-to-play-with" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:38880" rel="noopener"> Plenty of Headroom to Play With</a> called this correctly - "the strength of Sangokushi Senryaku Ban and a strong game pipeline should help the company continue to outperform significantly." The shares are now Overbought, and the valuation has never been as extreme. A Results Score of 30 is 'perfection'. We would trim into any results-induced move above ¥3,500.
DAILY STATS
</div><hr><div>40 Quarterly Results</div><div><ul>
<li>
Results Score: 14 Positive / 0 Neutral / 26 Negative</li>
<li>
Average Results Score Change: -3.3</li>
<li>
Average % Change in Revenue: -10.6% Quarter YoY / -3.0% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.1ppt</li>
<li>
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 18%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div> 19 Annual • 12 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</div><div><ul>
<li>
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 6 Positive / 0 Neutral / 13 Negative</li>
<li>
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 2 Positive / 0 Neutral / 10 Negative</li>
<li>
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -11.5</li>
</ul></div>


Source • Japan Analytics
Koei Tecmo (3635 JP) - Koei Tecmo produced the most-improved Results Score among large-cap companies yesterday. Colleague Mio Kato's April Insight Plenty of Headroom to Play With called this correctly - "the strength of Sangokushi Senryaku Ban and a strong game pipeline should help the company continue to outperform significantly." The shares are now Overbought, and the valuation has never been as extreme. A Results Score of 30 is 'perfection'. We would trim into any results-induced move above ¥3,500.
DAILY STATS
40 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 14 Positive / 0 Neutral / 26 Negative

Average Results Score Change: -3.3

Average % Change in Revenue: -10.6% Quarter YoY / -3.0% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.1ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 18%
 19 Annual • 12 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 6 Positive / 0 Neutral / 13 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 2 Positive / 0 Neutral / 10 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -11.5


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 27th July - Koei Tecmo, Nitto Denko, MMC, Stanley Electric, Exedy

Japan

Mazda Motor Corporation manufactures and sells automobiles, trucks, auto parts, and its accessories.  The Company operates its business worldwide.

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Mazda Motor (7261 JP)

Revisiting Our Nissan-Honda Merger Idea

The FT has an article out saying that the Japanese government had directed some initial feelers towards Honda and Nissan raising the possibility of...

Mio Kato

MeGroup Revs Up Sustainable Growth Engines

Engineer Wong Cheong Chee is a man who appreciates his machines. As a testament to this, the Executive Chairman and CEO of SGX-listed...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Mazda – Rising Repeat Rate Makes This Our Top Pick in the Sector

While Mazda’s stock price and earnings have underwhelmed, we believe the company continues to make significant progress in strengthening its...

Mio Kato

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 28th July - TEL, Fanuc, Canon, Nissan, Shin-Etsu, Omron

OUTLIERS - This quarter's results are highlighting the wide variances in performance between companies in the same thematic basket - in yesterday's...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 27th July - Koei Tecmo, Nitto Denko, MMC, Stanley Electric, Exedy

Koei Tecmo (3635 JP) - Koei Tecmo produced the most-improved Results Score among large-cap companies yesterday. Colleague Mio Kato's April...

Campbell Gunn

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