Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX Closed -1.1% as US Debt Default risks rise; Democrats and Republicans still far apart;  STRONG US new home Sales; Boeing says Supply Chain Resolution will take Time</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.9% vs Cash; Japan likely falls 2nd day ; JP Real Wages Fall most in 8 years; S&amp;P Cuts Softbank's Debt in deeper Junk - Company protests </li>
<li>NUGGET. Japanese Automaker face massive R&amp;D and Capex spend for years to come as they transition to EVs. Free Cash Flow likely turn negative, and profits stagnate.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX Closed -1.1% as US Debt Default risks rise; Democrats and Republicans still far apart;  STRONG US new home Sales; Boeing says Supply Chain Resolution will take Time
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.9% vs Cash; Japan likely falls 2nd day ; JP Real Wages Fall most in 8 years; S&amp;P Cuts Softbank's Debt in deeper Junk - Company protests 
NUGGET. Japanese Automaker face massive R&amp;D and Capex spend for years to come as they transition to EVs. Free Cash Flow likely turn negative, and profits stagnate.


Ohayo Japan |SPX -1.1% as Equities Start to Heed Debt Risks; NUGGET: JP Autos- Painful EV Transition

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX +1.9% to close on highs; Beta-driven rally as Tech rebounds;  Dovish talk from 2 Fed Members;  Google joins the fray slashing 12,000 staff; US Banks not far behind.</li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futs +1.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 129.6;  CORE Inflation hits 4%;  Kishida: too early to discuss BOJ 2% policy exit;  Japan courts global elite grads; Population declines in 2022</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET.  Change of Direction with new BOJ Leadership? Ha, policy direction has already been decided, and whoever the Govt selects will just continue where Kuroda left off. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX +1.9% to close on highs; Beta-driven rally as Tech rebounds;  Dovish talk from 2 Fed Members;  Google joins the fray slashing 12,000 staff; US Banks not far behind.
JAPAN.  NKY Futs +1.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 129.6;  CORE Inflation hits 4%;  Kishida: too early to discuss BOJ 2% policy exit;  Japan courts global elite grads; Population declines in 2022
DAILY NUGGET.  Change of Direction with new BOJ Leadership? Ha, policy direction has already been decided, and whoever the Govt selects will just continue where Kuroda left off. 


Good Morning Japan | The Doves Strike Back; Google Joins Layoff Parade; "Too Early for BOJ Exit"

Global Automotive Stocks/EV Focus/Event Driven, SC Capital

SC Capital

Global Automotive Stocks/EV Focus/Event Driven

Over 22 years covering Japanese equities on both the sell side and the buy side. 

Bottom-up Japan Equities Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Toyota's Q2 EPS undershot estimates by 28%. FY3/23 guidance was kept flat, but given a more favorable assumption for forex tailwinds, Toyota effectively lowered FY3/23 EPS by 7%.  </li>
<li>Management partially admitted to parts of recent media reports that Toyota was overhauling its EV strategy.  Targets of 3.5m BEVs by 2030 are unchanged, but the ramp may be slower.</li>
<li>Toyota's 2H FY3/23 hurdles are low and its auto division's operating profits appear to be bottoming. Stock may still be a laggard, but we're bullish on a 12-month basis. </li>
</ul>


Toyota's Q2 EPS undershot estimates by 28%. FY3/23 guidance was kept flat, but given a more favorable assumption for forex tailwinds, Toyota effectively lowered FY3/23 EPS by 7%.  
Management partially admitted to parts of recent media reports that Toyota was overhauling its EV strategy.  Targets of 3.5m BEVs by 2030 are unchanged, but the ramp may be slower.
Toyota's 2H FY3/23 hurdles are low and its auto division's operating profits appear to be bottoming. Stock may still be a laggard, but we're bullish on a 12-month basis. 


Toyota's Q2 Is a Huge Miss; EV Strategy in Flux

<ul>
<li>Topix down 4.2% on persistent concerns about surging inflation, rising interest rates and a highly uncertain global economic outlook</li>
<li>The Nikkei index shed 7.7% in September, its biggest monthly decline since March 2020.</li>
<li>Disappointing commentary from NIKE, APPLE and automakers not helping sentiment</li>
</ul>


Topix down 4.2% on persistent concerns about surging inflation, rising interest rates and a highly uncertain global economic outlook
The Nikkei index shed 7.7% in September, its biggest monthly decline since March 2020.
Disappointing commentary from NIKE, APPLE and automakers not helping sentiment


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are seeing signs that suggest this pullback may have run its course, as several global market indexes and Sectors appear to be making a higher low near logical support.</li>
<li>This includes the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, MSCI ACWI (local currency), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, MSCI ACWI Technology (IXN-US), Consumer Discretionary (RXI-US), Financials (IXG-US), Industrials and (EXI-US) -- add exposure.</li>
<li>While our overall outlook remains neutral, we continue to see a plethora of attractive buying opportunities in the new leaders.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing signs that suggest this pullback may have run its course, as several global market indexes and Sectors appear to be making a higher low near logical support.
This includes the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, MSCI ACWI (local currency), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, MSCI ACWI Technology (IXN-US), Consumer Discretionary (RXI-US), Financials (IXG-US), Industrials and (EXI-US) -- add exposure.
While our overall outlook remains neutral, we continue to see a plethora of attractive buying opportunities in the new leaders.


Pullback Complete?; Commodities Heading Lower; Buying Growth/Cyclicals & A Few Utilities

Japan

Mazda Motor Corporation manufactures and sells automobiles, trucks, auto parts, and its accessories.  The Company operates its business worldwide.

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Mazda Motor (7261 JP)

Ohayo Japan |SPX -1.1% as Equities Start to Heed Debt Risks; NUGGET: JP Autos- Painful EV Transition

US debt impasse continues - SPX fall -1.1% NKY Futs -0.9% vs Cash; Japan likely falls 2nd day ; JP Real Wages Fall most in 8 years; S&P Cuts...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan | The Doves Strike Back; Google Joins Layoff Parade; "Too Early for BOJ Exit"

SPX +1.9% to close on highs; Beta-driven rally. NKY Futs +1.3% vs Cash; JP CORE Inflation hits 4%; Kishida: too early to discuss BOJ 2% policy...

Mark Chadwick

Toyota's Q2 Is a Huge Miss; EV Strategy in Flux

Toyota saw a huge miss in Q2 and admits they're revamping their EV plans. This may seem negative, but it's a huge positive ahead of a recovering...

SC Capital

Japan Weekly | Mazda, Mit Motors, Subaru

Not a great week for investors in Japanese equities. The market remains under pressure on global macro concerns in addition to poor commentary from...

Mark Chadwick

Pullback Complete?; Commodities Heading Lower; Buying Growth/Cyclicals & A Few Utilities

Signs suggest this pullback may have run its course, as several global market indexes & Sectors appear to be making a higher low near logical...

Vermilion Research

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