Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS: US Stock Cap strong week with positive gains; Payrolls jumped, but so did Unemployment rate=past peak rates ?  China slowdown fueling worries about Contagion. </li>
<li>JAPAN: NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 146.2; Japan Govt to Shorten Assessment Period for Off-Shore Wind; Japan-UK to cooperate in next Gen nuclear plants; ARM Pricing ~50 billion USD. </li>
<li>JAPAN X: Daikin and Mitsubishi Electric Poised to Benefit from US Heat Pump Growth. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS: US Stock Cap strong week with positive gains; Payrolls jumped, but so did Unemployment rate=past peak rates ?  China slowdown fueling worries about Contagion. 
JAPAN: NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 146.2; Japan Govt to Shorten Assessment Period for Off-Shore Wind; Japan-UK to cooperate in next Gen nuclear plants; ARM Pricing ~50 billion USD. 
JAPAN X: Daikin and Mitsubishi Electric Poised to Benefit from US Heat Pump Growth. 


Ohayo Japan|US Stocks Cap Strong Week; JAPAN X: Daikin, Melco to Benefit from US Heat Pump Growth

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).</li>
</ul>


In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.
$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).


Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 38 adds/36 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 4.35% and a two-way trade of JPY 461bn (US$3.24bn).</li>
<li>There are a few stocks that will have same way flow from other index trackers within a few weeks of the JPX Nikkei 400 Index rebalance.</li>
</ul>


There are 38 adds/36 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 4.35% and a two-way trade of JPY 461bn (US$3.24bn).
There are a few stocks that will have same way flow from other index trackers within a few weeks of the JPX Nikkei 400 Index rebalance.


JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: Some Big Impact Names

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> has pulled back from its peak. Direction currently unclear but last week's positive Close was super weak (+0.1%) , may lead to lower prices this week.</li>
<li>If the index falls this week, a -1 or -2 weeks down is the most common pattern, followed by a rebound. Reversal probability is =75% for -2 weeks down.</li>
<li>Valid support levels for buy-the-dips are between 32067 and 31554. If lower, up to -3 weeks down this pattern is still bullish, from -4 weeks it turns bearish.</li>
</ul>



Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has pulled back from its peak. Direction currently unclear but last week's positive Close was super weak (+0.1%) , may lead to lower prices this week.
If the index falls this week, a -1 or -2 weeks down is the most common pattern, followed by a rebound. Reversal probability is =75% for -2 weeks down.
Valid support levels for buy-the-dips are between 32067 and 31554. If lower, up to -3 weeks down this pattern is still bullish, from -4 weeks it turns bearish.


EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) WEEKLY Falling: Support (Short-Term)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX eakes out gains despite weak ISM Manufacutring in light trading ahead of July 4th Independence Day Holiday; TESLA +6.9% on big 2Q delivery numbers </li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.4% vs Cash; JPYUSD 144.7; Strong BOJ Tankan print drives NKY to new highs;  JP land prices continue to rise; Support for JP foundry goals from IBM</li>
<li>NUGGET.  Japan's passing of the GX Promotion Law enables the issuance of ¥20 trillion in bonds and promotes ¥150 trillion of decarbonization investment over the next decade. Investment opportunities abound!</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX eakes out gains despite weak ISM Manufacutring in light trading ahead of July 4th Independence Day Holiday; TESLA +6.9% on big 2Q delivery numbers 
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.4% vs Cash; JPYUSD 144.7; Strong BOJ Tankan print drives NKY to new highs;  JP land prices continue to rise; Support for JP foundry goals from IBM
NUGGET.  Japan's passing of the GX Promotion Law enables the issuance of ¥20 trillion in bonds and promotes ¥150 trillion of decarbonization investment over the next decade. Investment opportunities abound!


Ohayo Japan| SPX Gains Despite Weak Factory PMI; NUGGET: Japan's GX Promotion Law - Opportunity !

Japan

Mazda Motor Corporation manufactures and sells automobiles, trucks, auto parts, and its accessories.  The Company operates its business worldwide.

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Mazda Motor (7261 JP)

Ohayo Japan|US Stocks Cap Strong Week; JAPAN X: Daikin, Melco to Benefit from US Heat Pump Growth

Mixed US Payrolls; US Equities close with gains; NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 146.2; Japan Govt to Shorten Assessment Period for Off-Shore...

Mark Chadwick

Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

We continue to believe $93 on $ACWI is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX and $DXY can stay below their...

Vermilion Research

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: Some Big Impact Names

There are 38 adds and 36 deletes for the JPXNK400 Index. The adds have outperformed the deletes and there is a fair bit to trade on a lot of...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) WEEKLY Falling: Support (Short-Term)

Market Reversal Matrix (MRM)'s analysis of the Nikkei 225 WEEKLY support levels + probability of trend reversal for the coming weeks, in case the...

Nico Rosti

Ohayo Japan| SPX Gains Despite Weak Factory PMI; NUGGET: Japan's GX Promotion Law - Opportunity !

SPX gains ahead of 4th July holidays; NKY Futs -0.4% vs Cash; JPYUSD 144.7; Strong BOJ Tankan print drives NKY to new highs; JP land prices...

Mark Chadwick

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