Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies, BBSP Asia

Federico D'Inca

Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies

BBSP Asia

Technical Analysis

THE MAIN IDEA (Relative Value Approach in USD Terms) Long Term Allocation (Strategic view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms ⦁ NIKKEI/MXAP: Long term outperformance in progress. ⦁ HSI/MXAP: Long term outperformance in progress/still expected. ⦁ HSCEI/MXAP: Bullish weekly indicators advocate for long term HSCEI outperformance against MXAP. ⦁ ASX/MXAP: ASX outperformance challenged but notinvalidated (testing key support at 26.00/25.50). ⦁ KOSPI/MXAP: Long term outperformance still expected. ⦁ Nifty/MXAP: Mixed elements. Neutral for now. ⦁ TWSE/MXAP: Neutral at the moment, watching closely key level at (2.22 on ratio TWSE/MXAP) to surpass to confirm TWSE long-term outperformance vs MXAPMid Term Country Allocation (Tactical view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms ⦁ Upgrade India to “Increase Exposure” as NIFTY/MXAP bounce reaction above support now expected. ⦁ Ratings remain the same for the rest: "Increase Exposure" for Australia, Korea, Hong Kong (HSI) and Japan. And still a "Hold" rating for China (HSCEI, under radar for a potential outperformance only through 8.50 on the RV) and Taiwan.

THE MAIN IDEA (Relative Value Approach in USD Terms) Long Term Allocation (Strategic view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms ⦁ NIKKEI/MXAP: Long term outperformance in progress. ⦁ HSI/MXAP: Long term outperformance in progress/still expected. ⦁ HSCEI/MXAP: Bullish weekly indicators advocate for long term HSCEI outperformance against MXAP. ⦁ ASX/MXAP: ASX outperformance challenged but notinvalidated (testing key support at 26.00/25.50). ⦁ KOSPI/MXAP: Long term outperformance still expected. ⦁ Nifty/MXAP: Mixed elements. Neutral for now. ⦁ TWSE/MXAP: Neutral at the moment, watching closely key level at (2.22 on ratio TWSE/MXAP) to surpass to confirm TWSE long-term outperformance vs MXAPMid Term Country Allocation (Tactical view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms ⦁ Upgrade India to “Increase Exposure” as NIFTY/MXAP bounce reaction above support now expected. ⦁ Ratings remain the same for the rest: "Increase Exposure" for Australia, Korea, Hong Kong (HSI) and Japan. And still a "Hold" rating for China (HSCEI, under radar for a potential outperformance only through 8.50 on the RV) and Taiwan.

BBSP ASIA Equity Asia Weekly Research - 19 Sep 2018

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

This week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/347" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage Ltd (JCNC SP)</a> looks inexpensive as it indirectly embraces a green goddess; and a closer look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20590" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20590:1">Citic Ltd (267 HK)</a>'s stub ops as the discount to NAV touches one-year lows. These relationships trade with: 1) a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average; and 2) a minimum 20% 'market capitalisation' threshold, whereby the value of the holding/opco held must be at least 20% of the parent's market cap.A detailed NAV for a number of these parent/holding relationships highlighted can be found in our holdco monitor.My comments on JCNC and Citic follow the weekly setup/unwind tables.

This week: Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage Ltd (JCNC SP) looks inexpensive as it indirectly embraces a green goddess; and a closer look at Citic Ltd (267 HK)'s stub ops as the discount to NAV touches one-year lows. These relationships trade with: 1) a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average; and 2) a minimum 20% 'market capitalisation' threshold, whereby the value of the holding/opco held must be at least 20% of the parent's market cap.A detailed NAV for a number of these parent/holding relationships highlighted can be found in our holdco monitor.My comments on JCNC and Citic follow the weekly setup/unwind tables.

StubWorld - Set-Up & Unwind Extremes: JCNC, Citic

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Citic has been covered as a bull play in our regular weekly product from the 11.20 area and just broke above significant resistance at 11.60. The upside gap and breakout from the long standing descending wedge pattern sets up an incredibly bullish cycle for this unloved counter.This descending wedge has been forming for a year now and shows incredible upside energy. Near term risk lies with a backfill to the 11.60 gap support.We are big proponents of major MACD triangle formations and this one…

Citic has been covered as a bull play in our regular weekly product from the 11.20 area and just broke above significant resistance at 11.60. The upside gap and breakout from the long standing descending wedge pattern sets up an incredibly bullish cycle for this unloved counter.This descending wedge has been forming for a year now and shows incredible upside energy. Near term risk lies with a backfill to the 11.60 gap support.We are big proponents of major MACD triangle formations and this one…

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

• The 830 stocks in the benchmark MSCI Emerging Market Index all represent legitimate investments for global EM active managers. Whilst publicly available top 10 fund holdings will highlight what EM funds are holding, it is more difficult to establish the stocks that EM funds are avoiding. • To find these stocks we limit the universe to the constituents of the MSCI EM index and screen for companies that are held by less than 3% of the fund population in our analysis (126 global EM active equity…

• The 830 stocks in the benchmark MSCI Emerging Market Index all represent legitimate investments for global EM active managers. Whilst publicly available top 10 fund holdings will highlight what EM funds are holding, it is more difficult to establish the stocks that EM funds are avoiding. • To find these stocks we limit the universe to the constituents of the MSCI EM index and screen for companies that are held by less than 3% of the fund population in our analysis (126 global EM active equity…

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Container Shipping - Asia Import Drive Will Boost Asia-Europe-Asia Box Profits for CarriersBackground - Space shortage has disrupted the Europe-Asia container trade in February and March and European exporters face highly unusual space crunch. This is highly unusual for a ‘back-haul’ route where ship utilization rarely reaches 70%. Carriers charged an ‘emergency minimum rate’ to accept bookings and some of them have put a stop to bookings until mid-April. Boxes already on the quay are getting…

Container Shipping - Asia Import Drive Will Boost Asia-Europe-Asia Box Profits for CarriersBackground - Space shortage has disrupted the Europe-Asia container trade in February and March and European exporters face highly unusual space crunch. This is highly unusual for a ‘back-haul’ route where ship utilization rarely reaches 70%. Carriers charged an ‘emergency minimum rate’ to accept bookings and some of them have put a stop to bookings until mid-April. Boxes already on the quay are getting…

Container Shipping - Asia Import Drive Will Boost Asia-Europe-Asia Box Profits for Carriers

Hong Kong

CITIC Limited operates in a range of business activities including financial services, resources and energy, manufacturing, real estate and infrastructure, engineering contracting and other businesses in China and overseas.

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Citic Ltd (267 HK)

BBSP ASIA Equity Asia Weekly Research - 19 Sep 2018

THE MAIN IDEA(Relative Value Approach in USD Terms)Long Term Allocation (Strategic view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms⦁ NIKKEI/MXAP: Long...

BBSP Asia

StubWorld - Set-Up & Unwind Extremes: JCNC, Citic

This week: Jardine Cycle & Carriage Ltd (JCNC SP) looks inexpensive as it indirectly embraces a green goddess; and a closer look at Citic Ltd...

David Blennerhassett

Mega Bullish CITIC

Citic has been covered as a bull play in our regular weekly product from the 11.20 area and just broke above significant resistance at 11.60. The...

Thomas Schroeder

EM Managers - Most Avoided Stocks

• The 830 stocks in the benchmark MSCI Emerging Market Index all represent legitimate investments for global EM active managers. Whilst publicly...

Steven Holden

Container Shipping - Asia Import Drive Will Boost Asia-Europe-Asia Box Profits for Carriers

Container Shipping - Asia Import Drive Will Boost Asia-Europe-Asia Box Profits for CarriersBackground - Space shortage has disrupted the...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

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