New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Datamine's quarterly Telcowatch market share data for the mobile market indicates a continuation of recent trends in 1Q26.</li><li>Spark (SPK) continues to lose share to 2degrees, while One NZ remains broadly stable.</li><li>One NZ is set to increase prices on select plans by ~+4–6% later this month, consistent with our view that pricing will be a meaningful driver of industry revenue growth.</li></ul>

Datamine's quarterly Telcowatch market share data for the mobile market indicates a continuation of recent trends in 1Q26.Spark (SPK) continues to lose share to 2degrees, while One NZ remains broadly stable.One NZ is set to increase prices on select plans by ~+4–6% later this month, consistent with our view that pricing will be a meaningful driver of industry revenue growth.

<ul><li>Recent data points on Spark NZ (SPK) show a continued loss of market share in the important mobile market.</li><li>We expect SPK to report total mobile connections down -1% year-on-year in 1H26.</li><li>With market share under pressure and pricing competition high, we expect growth to remain muted (~+1% year-on-year in 1H26) and retain UNDERPERFORM.</li></ul>

Recent data points on Spark NZ (SPK) show a continued loss of market share in the important mobile market.We expect SPK to report total mobile connections down -1% year-on-year in 1H26.With market share under pressure and pricing competition high, we expect growth to remain muted (~+1% year-on-year in 1H26) and retain UNDERPERFORM.

<ul><li>The NZ mobile market has had a good few years, with service revenue growing mid-single-digit led by ARPU growth towards the top end globally, but growth has been slowing.</li><li>While all telcos have increased prices on some plans this year, we don’t see this adding to growth given: (1) price increases have not been across the board; some plans decreased, and a new lower-priced tier of plans introduced; (2) global mobile prices have not illustrated structural growth; and (3) 2degrees and MVNO will likely continue to gain share.</li><li>We view One NZ as better positioned and have upgraded Infratil (IFT) to OUTPERFORM in our concurrently published report Infratil: Dialing up Growth—Up to OUTPERFORM, and downgrade Spark NZ (SPK) to UNDERPERFORM in our report Spark NZ: Low Signal—Down to UNDERPERFORM.</li></ul>

The NZ mobile market has had a good few years, with service revenue growing mid-single-digit led by ARPU growth towards the top end globally, but growth has been slowing.While all telcos have increased prices on some plans this year, we don’t see this adding to growth given: (1) price increases have not been across the board; some plans decreased, and a new lower-priced tier of plans introduced; (2) global mobile prices have not illustrated structural growth; and (3) 2degrees and MVNO will likely continue to gain share.We view One NZ as better positioned and have upgraded Infratil (IFT) to OUTPERFORM in our concurrently published report Infratil: Dialing up Growth—Up to OUTPERFORM, and downgrade Spark NZ (SPK) to UNDERPERFORM in our report Spark NZ: Low Signal—Down to UNDERPERFORM.

Telecommunications Sector Roaming The Mobile Market

<ul><li>We downgrade Spark NZ (SPK) to UNDERPERFORM from NEUTRAL.</li><li>SPK's incremental connection share is ~-3% points below its current share, its ARPUs are already ahead of One NZ's, its recent price changes have been mixed and it under-indexes in the growing MVNO market.</li><li>While SPK may benefit from a cyclical recovery in some IT services, the endgame for this segment is unclear.</li></ul>

We downgrade Spark NZ (SPK) to UNDERPERFORM from NEUTRAL.SPK's incremental connection share is ~-3% points below its current share, its ARPUs are already ahead of One NZ's, its recent price changes have been mixed and it under-indexes in the growing MVNO market.While SPK may benefit from a cyclical recovery in some IT services, the endgame for this segment is unclear.

Spark NZ Low Signal—Down To UNDERPERFORM

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>On one hand, retail sales growth in 5-1 Golden Week was a beat (after a soft Feb-Mar and an inline Apr).</li><li>On the other hand, retail discounts surprisingly widened due to increased competition from the de-stocking by brands like Adidas and Li Ning.</li><li>While fundamentals (sales, discounts and inventory) are trending good into 2H23E and setting up for a decent FY24E, we should still keep our eyes on the end demand and intensity of competition. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

On one hand, retail sales growth in 5-1 Golden Week was a beat (after a soft Feb-Mar and an inline Apr).On the other hand, retail discounts surprisingly widened due to increased competition from the de-stocking by brands like Adidas and Li Ning.While fundamentals (sales, discounts and inventory) are trending good into 2H23E and setting up for a decent FY24E, we should still keep our eyes on the end demand and intensity of competition. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Sportswear Sector – 5-1 sales beat but competition intensified

China

361 Degrees International is a leading Chinese sportswear enterprise that manufactures and trades in a wide range of sporting goods, including footwear, apparel, and accessories for adults and children. The company focuses on professional sports functionality and offers products under its 361° core and 361° Kids brand names. It was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Xiamen, People's Republic of China.

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361 Degrees International (1361 HK)

Spark NZ Mobile Data Balance Running Low

With market share under pressure and pricing competition high, we expect growth to remain muted (~+1% year-on-year in 1H26) and retain UNDERPERFORM.

Forsyth Barr

Telecommunications Sector Roaming The Mobile Market

The NZ mobile market has had a good few years, with service revenue growing mid-single-digit led by ARPU growth towards the top end globally, but...

Forsyth Barr

Spark NZ Low Signal—Down To UNDERPERFORM

We downgrade Spark NZ (SPK) to UNDERPERFORM from NEUTRAL. SPK's incremental connection share is ~-3% points below its current share...

Forsyth Barr

China Sportswear Sector – 5-1 sales beat but competition intensified

While fundamentals (sales, discounts and inventory) are trending good into 2H23E and setting up for a decent FY24E, we should still keep our eyes...

CMB International

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Telco Sector: 1Q26 Mobile Market Share

Datamine's quarterly Telcowatch market share data for the mobile market indicates a continuation of recent trends in 1Q26. Spark (SPK) continues...

Forsyth Barr

Spark NZ Mobile Data Balance Running Low

With market share under pressure and pricing competition high, we expect growth to remain muted (~+1% year-on-year in 1H26) and retain UNDERPERFORM.

Forsyth Barr

Telecommunications Sector Roaming The Mobile Market

The NZ mobile market has had a good few years, with service revenue growing mid-single-digit led by ARPU growth towards the top end globally, but...

Forsyth Barr

Spark NZ Low Signal—Down To UNDERPERFORM

We downgrade Spark NZ (SPK) to UNDERPERFORM from NEUTRAL. SPK's incremental connection share is ~-3% points below its current share...

Forsyth Barr

China Sportswear Sector – 5-1 sales beat but competition intensified

While fundamentals (sales, discounts and inventory) are trending good into 2H23E and setting up for a decent FY24E, we should still keep our eyes...

CMB International