Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Dawning Information Industry C / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 4 constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50 Index (SSE50 INDEX)</a> that will be implemented at the close on 12 December.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dawning-information-industry-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25380:1" rel="noopener">Dawning Information Industry C (603019 CH)</a> is a surprise add given the upcoming merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hygon-information-technology-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36366:1" rel="noopener">Hygon Information Technology C (688041 CH)</a>. </li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50 Index</a> adds have underperformed the deletes over the last couple of months and there could be outperformance from here as positioning builds ahead of the implementation of the changes.</li>
</ul>


There are 4 constituent changes for the SSE50 Index (SSE50 INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 12 December.

Dawning Information Industry C (603019 CH) is a surprise add given the upcoming merger with Hygon Information Technology C (688041 CH). 
The SSE50 Index adds have underperformed the deletes over the last couple of months and there could be outperformance from here as positioning builds ahead of the implementation of the changes.


SSE50 Index Rebalance: 4 Changes a Side & US$2.2bn Trade

China Northern Rare Earth Group High-Tech / Index Rebalance

China Northern Rare Earth Group High-Tech

<ul>
<li>With the review period complete, there are 6 non-constituents in direct inclusion zone and 4 current constituents in direct deletion zone. However, as usual, there will be discretion used.</li>
<li>4 changes result in a one-way turnover of 4%, leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 17bn (US$2.4bn). Index arb balances will increase the impact on the stocks.</li>
<li>The index committee has used discretion in selecting the index adds and deletes and that could continue to be the case at this review too.</li>
</ul>


With the review period complete, there are 6 non-constituents in direct inclusion zone and 4 current constituents in direct deletion zone. However, as usual, there will be discretion used.
4 changes result in a one-way turnover of 4%, leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 17bn (US$2.4bn). Index arb balances will increase the impact on the stocks.
The index committee has used discretion in selecting the index adds and deletes and that could continue to be the case at this review too.


SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: 4 Potential Changes in December

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. made a strong debut on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Thursday, raising HK$9.2 billion ($1.2 billion) in the city’s largest carmaker IPO of the year and seeing its shares soar as much as 11.2%.</li><li>Shares closed at HK$31.90, up 3.7% from the IPO price of HK$30.80, giving the company a market capitalization of HK$184 billion — placing it nearly on par with rival Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd.</li><li>The listing marks a major milestone for the state-owned automaker, founded in 1997, after several failed attempts to go public.</li></ul>

Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. made a strong debut on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Thursday, raising HK$9.2 billion ($1.2 billion) in the city’s largest carmaker IPO of the year and seeing its shares soar as much as 11.2%.Shares closed at HK$31.90, up 3.7% from the IPO price of HK$30.80, giving the company a market capitalization of HK$184 billion — placing it nearly on par with rival Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd.The listing marks a major milestone for the state-owned automaker, founded in 1997, after several failed attempts to go public.

Chery Automobile Raises $1.2 Billion in Hong Kong’s Biggest Carmaker IPO of 2025 

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Capital Markets

Chery Automobile / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Chery Auto, the second largest Chinese domestic brand passenger vehicle company, priced its IPO at the high end of the range at HK$30.75/share.</li>
<li>High demand for the stock was predictable. Cornerstone investors collectively agreed to acquire ~$588M worth of Chery Auto shares in this offering.  </li>
<li>The Chery Auto stock is set to start trading on Thursday. I see modest potential upside vs. IPO offer price as growth is slowing down and margins compressed.</li>
</ul>


Chery Auto, the second largest Chinese domestic brand passenger vehicle company, priced its IPO at the high end of the range at HK$30.75/share.
High demand for the stock was predictable. Cornerstone investors collectively agreed to acquire ~$588M worth of Chery Auto shares in this offering.  
The Chery Auto stock is set to start trading on Thursday. I see modest potential upside vs. IPO offer price as growth is slowing down and margins compressed.


Chery Auto IPO (9973.HK): Modest Potential Upside, Geely Auto Screens As a Good Comparison

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of Chery Auto is target price of HKD 40.6 which is 32% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. </li>
<li>Our base case valuation is based on EV/EBITDA of 5.9x our estimated EBITDA of 37.1 billion RMB in 2026. Our target multiple is 30% premium to the comps' average multiple.</li>
<li>We have chosen to use a premium valuation multiple mainly due to Chery Auto's higher ROE, sales growth, and net margins vs the comps.</li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of Chery Auto is target price of HKD 40.6 which is 32% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. 
Our base case valuation is based on EV/EBITDA of 5.9x our estimated EBITDA of 37.1 billion RMB in 2026. Our target multiple is 30% premium to the comps' average multiple.
We have chosen to use a premium valuation multiple mainly due to Chery Auto's higher ROE, sales growth, and net margins vs the comps.


China

SAIC Motor Corporation Ltd., through joint ventures, manufactures and markets automobiles and related parts and accessories.

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SAIC Motor (600104 CH)

SSE50 Index Rebalance: 4 Changes a Side & US$2.2bn Trade

There are 4 changes for the SSE50 Index in Dec. Dawning is the surprise addition and could move closer to the merger ratio implied price. Estimated...

Brian Freitas

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: 4 Potential Changes in December

There could be 4 changes for the index in Dec. The index committee has used discretion in the past and that is likely to continue. One-way turnover...

Brian Freitas

Chery Automobile Raises $1.2 Billion in Hong Kong’s Biggest Carmaker IPO of 2025

Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. made a strong debut on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Thursday, raising HK$9.2 billion ($1.2 billion) in the city’s...

Caixin Global

Chery Auto IPO (9973.HK): Modest Potential Upside, Geely Auto Screens As a Good Comparison

Chery Auto successfully completed its IPO in Hong Kong and raised more than US$1B. I see modest potential upside vs. IPO price of HK$30.75/share...

Andrei Zakharov

Chery Auto IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Chery Auto is target price of HKD 40.6 which is 32% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.

Douglas Kim

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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SSE50 Index Rebalance: 4 Changes a Side & US$2.2bn Trade

There are 4 changes for the SSE50 Index in Dec. Dawning is the surprise addition and could move closer to the merger ratio implied price. Estimated...

Brian Freitas

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: 4 Potential Changes in December

There could be 4 changes for the index in Dec. The index committee has used discretion in the past and that is likely to continue. One-way turnover...

Brian Freitas

Chery Automobile Raises $1.2 Billion in Hong Kong’s Biggest Carmaker IPO of 2025

Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. made a strong debut on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Thursday, raising HK$9.2 billion ($1.2 billion) in the city’s...

Caixin Global

Chery Auto IPO (9973.HK): Modest Potential Upside, Geely Auto Screens As a Good Comparison

​Chery Auto successfully completed its IPO in Hong Kong and raised more than US$1B. I see modest potential upside vs. IPO price of HK$30.75/share...

Andrei Zakharov

Chery Auto IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Chery Auto is target price of HKD 40.6 which is 32% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.

Douglas Kim

Chery Auto successfully completed its IPO in Hong Kong and raised more than US$1B. I see modest potential upside vs. IPO price of HK$30.75/share...