Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>Treasury yields fell 9-10 bps across the curve yesterday, as the weak ADP employment and ISM services data raised expectations for Fed rate cuts.</li>
<li>The yield on the 2Y UST declined 9 bps to 3.87%, while that on the 10Y UST was down 10 bps at 4.36%.</li>
<li>Equities were largely steady, with the S&amp;P 500 unchanged and the Nasdaq up 0.3%. </li>
</ul>


Treasury yields fell 9-10 bps across the curve yesterday, as the weak ADP employment and ISM services data raised expectations for Fed rate cuts.
The yield on the 2Y UST declined 9 bps to 3.87%, while that on the 10Y UST was down 10 bps at 4.36%.
Equities were largely steady, with the S&amp;P 500 unchanged and the Nasdaq up 0.3%. 


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>1Q25 net profit dropped by -81% qoq/ -76% yoy to US$18mn due to AMMN’s -US$29mn loss and seasonally weaker gas sales (-4.2% qoq).</li><li>Based on mgmt’s FY25 guidance, we see weaker earnings from lower O&amp;G output of 145-150 mboepd (vs. 152 mboepd in FY24).</li><li>We downgraded our rating to Hold with a lower SOTP-based TP of Rp1,320, mainly caused by lower AMMN earnings.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

1Q25 net profit dropped by -81% qoq/ -76% yoy to US$18mn due to AMMN’s -US$29mn loss and seasonally weaker gas sales (-4.2% qoq).Based on mgmt’s FY25 guidance, we see weaker earnings from lower O&amp;G output of 145-150 mboepd (vs. 152 mboepd in FY24).We downgraded our rating to Hold with a lower SOTP-based TP of Rp1,320, mainly caused by lower AMMN earnings.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Medco Energi International (MEDC.IJ) - A Weaker FY25 on Lower O&G Output...

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Medco Energi</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Medco Energi


<ul><li>With the completion IPO of AMMN, we see this reveals the value that hidden in MEDC.</li><li>AMMN currently trades at IDR130 tn mkt cap and MEDC owned 21% which translates to IDR27 tn which was higher compared to MEDC current mkt cap.</li><li>We also believes that MEDC oil &amp; gas production will remain solid in 2023 with the support of Corridor block. Maintain Buy with higher TP of IDR1,300/sh.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

With the completion IPO of AMMN, we see this reveals the value that hidden in MEDC.AMMN currently trades at IDR130 tn mkt cap and MEDC owned 21% which translates to IDR27 tn which was higher compared to MEDC current mkt cap.We also believes that MEDC oil &amp; gas production will remain solid in 2023 with the support of Corridor block. Maintain Buy with higher TP of IDR1,300/sh.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Medco Energi Internasional (MEDC IJ) - It’s a bargain!

<ul>
<li>Medco Energi has announced a cash tender offer to repurchase up to all the outstanding USD 242.3 mn MEDCIJ 7.375 '26s and USD 418.7 mn MEDCIJ 6.375 '27s.</li>
<li>It is also concurrently seeking to issue new USD 400 mn 5NC2 notes.</li>
<li>In our view, the proposed transactions demonstrate Medco’s proactive management of its debt maturity profile.</li>
</ul>


Medco Energi has announced a cash tender offer to repurchase up to all the outstanding USD 242.3 mn MEDCIJ 7.375 '26s and USD 418.7 mn MEDCIJ 6.375 '27s.
It is also concurrently seeking to issue new USD 400 mn 5NC2 notes.
In our view, the proposed transactions demonstrate Medco’s proactive management of its debt maturity profile.


Indonesia

PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk is an integrated energy company. The Company explores for and produces oil and gas both in Indonesia and internationally, operates gas-fired power plants in Panaran I, Batam Island, and develops renewable fuels such as Bio-fuel.

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Medco Energi (MEDC IJ)

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

Treasury yields fell 9-10 bps across the curve yesterday, as the weak ADP employment and ISM services data raised expectations for Fed rate cuts.

Lucror Analytics

Medco Energi International (MEDC.IJ) - A Weaker FY25 on Lower O&G Output...

1Q25 net profit dropped by -81% qoq/ -76% yoy to US$18mn due to AMMN’s -US$29mn loss and seasonally weaker gas sales (-4.2% qoq).

BRI Danareksa Research

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

Treasury yields ended slightly lower yesterday, after erasing a sell-off that briefly pushed the yield on the 30Y UST above 5%, in the wake of...

Lucror Analytics

Medco Energi Internasional (MEDC IJ) - It’s a bargain!

AMMN currently trades at IDR130 tn mkt cap and MEDC owned 21% which translates to IDR27 tn which was higher compared to MEDC current mkt cap.

BRI Danareksa Research

Medco Energi

Medco Energi has announced a cash tender offer to repurchase up to all the outstanding USD 242.3 mn MEDCIJ 7.375 '26s and USD 418.7 mn MEDCIJ 6.375...

Lucror Analytics

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