Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Delta Electronics Thailand  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Delta Thailand 130% Rally -- Massive Valuation Mismatch vs. Parent (Again)</li>
<li>Consensus Forecasts Show Higher Earnings Growth Profile for Delta Taiwan</li>
<li>Valuation Mismatch Is Not Sustainable -- Long Delta Taiwan vs. Short Delta Thailand</li>
</ul>


Delta Thailand 130% Rally -- Massive Valuation Mismatch vs. Parent (Again)
Consensus Forecasts Show Higher Earnings Growth Profile for Delta Taiwan
Valuation Mismatch Is Not Sustainable -- Long Delta Taiwan vs. Short Delta Thailand


Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Thai Shares' Extreme Valuation Is Back; Unsustainable Mismatch

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>We maintain an Underperform rating, as the stock’s valuation appears stretched, with very limited tactical upside.</li><li>However, the long-term outlook on DELTA’s earnings remains strong, driven by robust demand growth in AI-related businesses.</li></ul><ul><li>DELTA reported a 3Q24 net profit of Bt5.91bn (+8.9% YoY but -10.0% QoQ), exceeding market expectations by 3.8%. </li></ul>

We maintain an Underperform rating, as the stock’s valuation appears stretched, with very limited tactical upside.However, the long-term outlook on DELTA’s earnings remains strong, driven by robust demand growth in AI-related businesses.DELTA reported a 3Q24 net profit of Bt5.91bn (+8.9% YoY but -10.0% QoQ), exceeding market expectations by 3.8%. 

Delta Electronics (Thailand) - Strong 3Q24 Net Profit but Share Price Fully Valued

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Two thirds of the way through the review period, we see one change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index</a> in December with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kce-electronics-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1892:1" rel="noopener">KCE Electronics (KCE TB)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ngern-tid-lor-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31103:1" rel="noopener">Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB)</a>. </li>
<li>There is one close change where <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/i-tail-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36428:1" rel="noopener">I-TAIL (ITC TB)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/srisawad-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9480:1" rel="noopener">Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB)</a> in the index.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thailand-pcl-98806732-8ac4-42b2-a565-ba32673d1e5a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB)</a> is unlikely to be deleted while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)</a> fails liquidity and is unlikely to be added.</li>
</ul>


Two thirds of the way through the review period, we see one change for the SET 50 Index in December with KCE Electronics (KCE TB) replacing Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB). 
There is one close change where I-TAIL (ITC TB) could replace Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB) in the index.

Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) is unlikely to be deleted while Berli Jucker (BJC TB) fails liquidity and is unlikely to be added.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; Another One Is Close

<ul>
<li>We have an Underperform rating for Delta Electronics Taiwan as a single stock trade due to our concerns that its valuation has been inflated by Delta Thailand.</li>
<li>The extreme valuation mismatch between Delta Thailand and Delta Taiwan has corrected to some degree (Delta Thai crashed 23%) but still has a long way to go.</li>
<li>Delta Thailand should be removed from the SET50 Index in our view, the stock could be at risk of just such an action by year end according to precedent.</li>
</ul>


We have an Underperform rating for Delta Electronics Taiwan as a single stock trade due to our concerns that its valuation has been inflated by Delta Thailand.
The extreme valuation mismatch between Delta Thailand and Delta Taiwan has corrected to some degree (Delta Thai crashed 23%) but still has a long way to go.
Delta Thailand should be removed from the SET50 Index in our view, the stock could be at risk of just such an action by year end according to precedent.


Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Thailand Mismatch Correcting & This Could Pull Down Delta Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This week will have some major earnings data points released. In Taiwan, UMC, Delta, Mediatek, ASE will report among other local names in our coverage.</li>
<li>Samsung &amp; SK Hynix will report this week, providing major insight into the Memory chip space for companies such as Nanya Technology and Micron.</li>
<li>TSMC &amp; ASML results last week indicate that the cycle could be bottoming in 2Q23E for these leading firms... But are we entering a two-track industry recovery?</li>
</ul>


This week will have some major earnings data points released. In Taiwan, UMC, Delta, Mediatek, ASE will report among other local names in our coverage.
Samsung &amp; SK Hynix will report this week, providing major insight into the Memory chip space for companies such as Nanya Technology and Micron.
TSMC &amp; ASML results last week indicate that the cycle could be bottoming in 2Q23E for these leading firms... But are we entering a two-track industry recovery?


Taiwan Tech Weekly: This Is a Major Earnings Week; Are We Entering a 2-Track Semiconductor Recovery?

Thailand

Delta Electronics (Thailand) PCL designs and manufactures electronic equipment. The Company produces power systems for telecommunications, medical equipment, and industrial automation.  Delta also produces fans, electromagnetic interference filters, and solenoids.

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Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB)

Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Thai Shares' Extreme Valuation Is Back; Unsustainable Mismatch

There is once again a significant valuation mismatch between Delta Thailand and Delta Taiwan. Go Long Delta Taiwan and Short Delta Thailand due to...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; Another One Is Close

KCE could replace TIDLOR in the SET50 in Dec. ITC is a close add and could replace SAWAD. The impact on the stocks is big given the index is...

Brian Freitas

Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Thailand Mismatch Correcting & This Could Pull Down Delta Taiwan

We have an Underperform rating for Delta Electronics Taiwan as a single stock trade due to our concerns that its valuation has been inflated by...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: This Is a Major Earnings Week; Are We Entering a 2-Track Semiconductor Recovery?

TSMC & ASML results last week indicate that the cycle could be bottoming in 2Q23E for these leading firms... But are we entering a two-track...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Thai Shares' Extreme Valuation Is Back; Unsustainable Mismatch

There is once again a significant valuation mismatch between Delta Thailand and Delta Taiwan. Go Long Delta Taiwan and Short Delta Thailand due to...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Delta Electronics (Thailand) - Strong 3Q24 Net Profit but Share Price Fully Valued

We maintain an Underperform rating, as the stock’s valuation appears stretched, with very limited tactical upside. However, the long-term outlook...

Krungthai XSpring

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; Another One Is Close

KCE could replace TIDLOR in the SET50 in Dec. ITC is a close add and could replace SAWAD. The impact on the stocks is big given the index is...

Brian Freitas

Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Thailand Mismatch Correcting & This Could Pull Down Delta Taiwan

We have an Underperform rating for Delta Electronics Taiwan as a single stock trade due to our concerns that its valuation has been inflated by...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: This Is a Major Earnings Week; Are We Entering a 2-Track Semiconductor Recovery?

TSMC & ASML results last week indicate that the cycle could be bottoming in 2Q23E for these leading firms... But are we entering a two-track...

Vincent Fernando, CFA