External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume rose 6% YoY and 3% MoM to 1.97mn units in Sep 2023, 4% higher than our prior forecast.</li><li>YTD retail sales volume rose 4% YoY. Wholesale volume rose 7% YoY and 9% MoM to 2.49mn units in Sep 2023, the best Sep in history, and 9% higher than our prior forecast.</li><li>Wholesale volume rose 7% YoY (or +1.14mn units YoY) YTD, all aided by 67% YoY growth (or +1.14mn units YoY) of exports. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume rose 6% YoY and 3% MoM to 1.97mn units in Sep 2023, 4% higher than our prior forecast.YTD retail sales volume rose 4% YoY. Wholesale volume rose 7% YoY and 9% MoM to 2.49mn units in Sep 2023, the best Sep in history, and 9% higher than our prior forecast.Wholesale volume rose 7% YoY (or +1.14mn units YoY) YTD, all aided by 67% YoY growth (or +1.14mn units YoY) of exports. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – Strong 4Q23 sales mixed with rising competition

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Lithium Index. There are 8 adds and 9 deletes with implementation at the close on 31 October.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is in excess of 22% and will result in a one-way trade of US$490m. There are 11 stocks with estimated passive flows greater than 1x ADV.</li>
<li>The index is not very widely tracked and there could be big moves in stocks today and over the next few days - especially where there is multiple days ADV.</li>
</ul>


Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Lithium Index. There are 8 adds and 9 deletes with implementation at the close on 31 October.
Estimated one-way turnover is in excess of 22% and will result in a one-way trade of US$490m. There are 11 stocks with estimated passive flows greater than 1x ADV.
The index is not very widely tracked and there could be big moves in stocks today and over the next few days - especially where there is multiple days ADV.


Solactive Global Lithium Index Rebalance: 45% Turnover & US$980m Trade

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This is the somewhat-brand-spanking-new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.</li>
<li>The performance/spread/flow data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and 4 weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected/charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).</li>
<li>Please play with nifty interactive tables+charts. We welcome feedback. This 5-day week saw RMB 24bn+ of net selling. Back to Bigly Selling!</li>
</ul>


This is the somewhat-brand-spanking-new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.
The performance/spread/flow data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and 4 weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected/charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).
Please play with nifty interactive tables+charts. We welcome feedback. This 5-day week saw RMB 24bn+ of net selling. Back to Bigly Selling!


Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 20 Oct 2023): BYD/Changan IN But BIGLY Net Selling

<ul>
<li>This is the somewhat brand-spanking-new Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.</li>
<li>The data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and four weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected and charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).</li>
<li>We like the nifty interactive tables+charts (please play with them!) and we welcome feedback. This 5-day week saw HKD 3.9bn+ of net buying. That makes 13 weeks of net inflows.</li>
</ul>


This is the somewhat brand-spanking-new Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.
The data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and four weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected and charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).
We like the nifty interactive tables+charts (please play with them!) and we welcome feedback. This 5-day week saw HKD 3.9bn+ of net buying. That makes 13 weeks of net inflows.


Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 20 Oct 23): Meituan, SMIC, Great Wall!

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 19th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$3,259.2 million, led by materials, industrials, and offset by consumer discretionary, utilities.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for BYD, Chongqing Changan Automobile, Zhongji Innolight, Moutai, Wuliangye, Ping An Insurance, CATL, Haitian Flavouring, Longi Green, CMB.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 19th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$3,259.2 million, led by materials, industrials, and offset by consumer discretionary, utilities.
We highlight flows for BYD, Chongqing Changan Automobile, Zhongji Innolight, Moutai, Wuliangye, Ping An Insurance, CATL, Haitian Flavouring, Longi Green, CMB.


Northbound Flows (Oct 19th): BYD, Changan Auto, Zhongji Innolight, Moutai, Wuliangye

China

BYD Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells automobiles. The Company also researches, develops, manufactures and sells batteries, which are applied on mobile phones, cordless phones, power tools and other kinds of portable electronic devices.

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BYD (1211 HK)

China Auto Sector – Strong 4Q23 sales mixed with rising competition

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume rose 6% YoY and 3% MoM to 1.97mn units in Sep 2023, 4% higher than our prior forecast.

CMB International

Solactive Global Lithium Index Rebalance: 45% Turnover & US$980m Trade

There are 8 adds/9 deletes for the Solactive Global Lithium Index resulting in an estimated one-way turnover of 22% and in a one-way trade of...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 20 Oct 2023): BYD/Changan IN But BIGLY Net Selling

NORTHBOUND Connect Flows were sharply negative last week with RMB 24bn of net selling. Kweichao and Contemp Amperex were big net sells but selling...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 20 Oct 23): Meituan, SMIC, Great Wall!

SOUTHBOUND flows last week were still mildly positive making it 13 weeks in a row. Great Wall Motors is finally a large net buy.

Travis Lundy

Northbound Flows (Oct 19th): BYD, Changan Auto, Zhongji Innolight, Moutai, Wuliangye

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for BYD, Chongqing Changan Automobile, Zhongji...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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