Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ASML has released 2Q25 financials but the conf call is at 3pm. 2Q25 beat by 10% at Operating and Net Income level. 2Q25 bookings are low at €5.5bn. </li>
<li>3Q25 weak revenue guidance, -9% below Consensus. But ASML maintains its 2025 guidance (+15% YoY or € 32.5bn, inline). Key problem: 1H25 revenue growth 34% YoY, 2H25 growth 2% YoY. </li>
<li>Growth should re-accelerate in 2H26 as the impacts of China lower spending, Mature node lower spending, multiple delays or cuts (Intel, Samsung) are fading away. </li>
</ul>


ASML has released 2Q25 financials but the conf call is at 3pm. 2Q25 beat by 10% at Operating and Net Income level. 2Q25 bookings are low at €5.5bn. 
3Q25 weak revenue guidance, -9% below Consensus. But ASML maintains its 2025 guidance (+15% YoY or € 32.5bn, inline). Key problem: 1H25 revenue growth 34% YoY, 2H25 growth 2% YoY. 
Growth should re-accelerate in 2H26 as the impacts of China lower spending, Mature node lower spending, multiple delays or cuts (Intel, Samsung) are fading away. 


ASML 2Q25 Beat but the Steep Slowdown in 2H25 Is Confirmed, It Will Most Likely Extend to 1H26

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Regional rotation places DM Europe as clear consensus overweight among active Global equity funds.</li>
<li>Seventy-Five percent of funds are overweight UK stocks, with 69.6% overweight France and 70.2% overweight the Netherlands</li>
<li>Novo Nordisk, ASML, Schneider Electric, and AstraZeneca remain key holdings, while a resurgence from European banks and select names like Spotify and LSEG is also starting to stand out.</li>
</ul>


Regional rotation places DM Europe as clear consensus overweight among active Global equity funds.
Seventy-Five percent of funds are overweight UK stocks, with 69.6% overweight France and 70.2% overweight the Netherlands
Novo Nordisk, ASML, Schneider Electric, and AstraZeneca remain key holdings, while a resurgence from European banks and select names like Spotify and LSEG is also starting to stand out.


Europe Reasserted: Consensus Builds as Europe Reclaims Ground from the U.S.

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

BE Semiconductor Industries NV / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • ASM International - ASML Holding – BE Semiconductor Industries | US wants further export restrictions of high-end semiconductor technology to China • PostNL | opens up its APM network for FedEx for drop-offs and returns</li></ul>

In this edition: • ASM International - ASML Holding – BE Semiconductor Industries | US wants further export restrictions of high-end semiconductor technology to China • PostNL | opens up its APM network for FedEx for drop-offs and returns

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 17 June (ASM Int'l | ASML Holding | Besi I | PostNL)

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a>’s Plan to Build a Plant in Germany Faces Delays.</li>
<li>TSMC’s Fab 21 Project in Phoenix, Arizona: Progress, Challenges, and Future Plans.</li>
<li>There remains uncertainty about whether political factors — such as U.S. President Trump’s tariff threats targeting the semiconductor industry— might impact or even reverse TSMC’s investment decision.</li>
</ul>



Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)’s Plan to Build a Plant in Germany Faces Delays.
TSMC’s Fab 21 Project in Phoenix, Arizona: Progress, Challenges, and Future Plans.
There remains uncertainty about whether political factors — such as U.S. President Trump’s tariff threats targeting the semiconductor industry— might impact or even reverse TSMC’s investment decision.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Germany Fab Delayed for European Budget Crisis; Fab 21 Project in Arizona.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in June but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Impact on the stocks is small given they are highly liquid.</li>
<li>There will be more flows in a lot of these stocks from trackers of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom (AVGO US)</a> will have largest outflows.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in June but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Impact on the stocks is small given they are highly liquid.
There will be more flows in a lot of these stocks from trackers of the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US). Broadcom (AVGO US) will have largest outflows.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: US$1.2bn Round-Trip Trade

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients world wide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML NA)

ASML 2Q25 Beat but the Steep Slowdown in 2H25 Is Confirmed, It Will Most Likely Extend to 1H26

ASML's 2Q25 financials beat expectations, but weak revenue guidance for 3Q25 due to lower bookings. Large growth slowdown in 2H25, likely will...

Nicolas Baratte

Europe Reasserted: Consensus Builds as Europe Reclaims Ground from the U.S.

Regional rotation places Developed Europe as a clear consensus overweight among active Global equity funds, with over 90% of funds positioned ahead...

Steven Holden

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 17 June (ASM Int'l | ASML Holding | Besi I | PostNL)

In this edition: • ASM International - ASML Holding – BE Semiconductor Industries | US wants further export restrictions of high-end semiconductor...

The IDEA!

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Germany Fab Delayed for European Budget Crisis; Fab 21 Project in Arizona.

TSMC faces delays in building a plant in Germany and uncertainty in investment decisions due to political factors like Trump's tariff threats....

Patrick Liao

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: US$1.2bn Round-Trip Trade

There are no constituent changes but float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 2.5% and in a round-trip trade of...

Brian Freitas

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ASML 2Q25 Beat but the Steep Slowdown in 2H25 Is Confirmed, It Will Most Likely Extend to 1H26

​ASML's 2Q25 financials beat expectations, but weak revenue guidance for 3Q25 due to lower bookings. Large growth slowdown in 2H25, likely will...

Nicolas Baratte

Europe Reasserted: Consensus Builds as Europe Reclaims Ground from the U.S.

Regional rotation places Developed Europe as a clear consensus overweight among active Global equity funds, with over 90% of funds positioned ahead...

Steven Holden

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 17 June (ASM Int'l | ASML Holding | Besi I | PostNL)

In this edition: • ASM International - ASML Holding – BE Semiconductor Industries | US wants further export restrictions of high-end semiconductor...

The IDEA!

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Germany Fab Delayed for European Budget Crisis; Fab 21 Project in Arizona.

​TSMC faces delays in building a plant in Germany and uncertainty in investment decisions due to political factors like Trump's tariff threats....

Patrick Liao

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: US$1.2bn Round-Trip Trade

There are no constituent changes but float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 2.5% and in a round-trip trade of...

Brian Freitas

ASML's 2Q25 financials beat expectations, but weak revenue guidance for 3Q25 due to lower bookings. Large growth slowdown in 2H25, likely will...

TSMC faces delays in building a plant in Germany and uncertainty in investment decisions due to political factors like Trump's tariff threats....