Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ASML reported Q424 revenues of €9.3 billion, marginally above the high end of the guided range, up 24% QoQ and up 28.5% YoY.</li>
<li>Full year 2024 revenue amounted to €28.3 billion, up 2.7% YoY and a modest improvement on the previously forecasted zero growth</li>
<li>Guided full year 2025 revenues to be in the $30-$35 billion range, representing a 15% YoY increase at the midpoint.</li>
</ul>


ASML reported Q424 revenues of €9.3 billion, marginally above the high end of the guided range, up 24% QoQ and up 28.5% YoY.
Full year 2024 revenue amounted to €28.3 billion, up 2.7% YoY and a modest improvement on the previously forecasted zero growth
Guided full year 2025 revenues to be in the $30-$35 billion range, representing a 15% YoY increase at the midpoint.


ASML. Strong Finish For 24, Robust Outlook For 25 With AI As Key Growth Driver

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

<ul><li>In this edition: • AkzoNobel | 4Q24 shows a mixed picture; some bright spots ahead • ASML Holding | reiterates FY25 and long-term outlook / record quarterly FCF • InPost | AliExpress survey shows Polish shoppers are looking for 'engaging experiences'</li></ul>

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | 4Q24 shows a mixed picture; some bright spots ahead • ASML Holding | reiterates FY25 and long-term outlook / record quarterly FCF • InPost | AliExpress survey shows Polish shoppers are looking for 'engaging experiences'

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 29 January (AkzoNobel | ASML Holding | | InPost)

External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club (VIC)

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Value Investors Club

<ul><li>ASML's total shareholder return is lagging behind its semicap peers and TSMC</li><li>The company's share price recently experienced a significant two-day drop</li><li>Despite past reservations, the author sees potential for a good risk/reward opportunity in buying ASML stock due to better pricing and negative investor sentiment on lithography</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.</em></p>

ASML's total shareholder return is lagging behind its semicap peers and TSMCThe company's share price recently experienced a significant two-day dropDespite past reservations, the author sees potential for a good risk/reward opportunity in buying ASML stock due to better pricing and negative investor sentiment on lithographyThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Asml Holding Nv (ASML) - Wednesday, Oct 16, 2024

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>ASML CEO and delegation to visit TSMC, showcasing collaboration in semiconductor industry</li><li>US adds 13 firms, majority Chinese, to entity list amid ongoing tensions</li><li>Samsung Display to unveil 18.1-inch foldable OLED panel at CES 2025, showcasing advancements in display technology</li></ul>

ASML CEO and delegation to visit TSMC, showcasing collaboration in semiconductor industryUS adds 13 firms, majority Chinese, to entity list amid ongoing tensionsSamsung Display to unveil 18.1-inch foldable OLED panel at CES 2025, showcasing advancements in display technology

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Jan-2025): ASML CEO visits TSMC next week.

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC cash dividend has increased by 65% in 2 years or NT$2.75 in 4Q22 to NT$4.50 in 3Q24. It will keep increasing.</li>
<li>TSMC is spinning cash. 2nm-16A could increase Capex intensity but still we estimate that quarterly dividend can increase to NT$5.50 in 2025 and NT$6.00 in 2026.</li>
<li>Consensus forecasts similar EPS growth for TSMC and ASML: 30% in 2025, 20% in 2026. TSMC is 50% cheaper than ASML. 2025 PEx: TSMC 18x and ASML 28x.</li>
</ul>


TSMC cash dividend has increased by 65% in 2 years or NT$2.75 in 4Q22 to NT$4.50 in 3Q24. It will keep increasing.
TSMC is spinning cash. 2nm-16A could increase Capex intensity but still we estimate that quarterly dividend can increase to NT$5.50 in 2025 and NT$6.00 in 2026.
Consensus forecasts similar EPS growth for TSMC and ASML: 30% in 2025, 20% in 2026. TSMC is 50% cheaper than ASML. 2025 PEx: TSMC 18x and ASML 28x.


TSMC Has Increased Its Dividend. Again. It Will Keep Increasing.

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients world wide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML NA)

ASML. Strong Finish For 24, Robust Outlook For 25 With AI As Key Growth Driver

The high end of ASML's 2030 revenue range represents a CAGR of 13.5%. This compares to a CAGR of 18% in the 2015-2024 time frame & TSMC's 20% CAGR....

William Keating

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 29 January (AkzoNobel | ASML Holding | | InPost)

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | 4Q24 shows a mixed picture; some bright spots ahead • ASML Holding | reiterates FY25 and long-term outlook /...

The IDEA!

Asml Holding Nv (ASML) - Wednesday, Oct 16, 2024

ASML's total shareholder return is lagging behind its semicap peers and TSMC. The company's share price recently experienced a significant two-day...

Value Investors Club (VIC)

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Jan-2025): ASML CEO visits TSMC next week.

ASML CEO to visit TSMC, US adds Chinese firms to entity list, AI predicted to dominate semiconductor market by 2030, Samsung Display to showcase...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

TSMC Has Increased Its Dividend. Again. It Will Keep Increasing.

TSMC's cash dividend has surged by 65% in 2 years and is expected to keep increasing. Consensus forecasts show TSMC's EPS growth matching ASML's,...

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

ASML. Strong Finish For 24, Robust Outlook For 25 With AI As Key Growth Driver

The high end of ASML's 2030 revenue range represents a CAGR of 13.5%. This compares to a CAGR of 18% in the 2015-2024 time frame & TSMC's 20% CAGR....

William Keating

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 29 January (AkzoNobel | ASML Holding | | InPost)

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | 4Q24 shows a mixed picture; some bright spots ahead • ASML Holding | reiterates FY25 and long-term outlook /...

The IDEA!

Asml Holding Nv (ASML) - Wednesday, Oct 16, 2024

ASML's total shareholder return is lagging behind its semicap peers and TSMC. The company's share price recently experienced a significant two-day...

Value Investors Club (VIC)

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Jan-2025): ASML CEO visits TSMC next week.

ASML CEO to visit TSMC, US adds Chinese firms to entity list, AI predicted to dominate semiconductor market by 2030, Samsung Display to showcase...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

TSMC Has Increased Its Dividend. Again. It Will Keep Increasing.

​TSMC's cash dividend has surged by 65% in 2 years and is expected to keep increasing. Consensus forecasts show TSMC's EPS growth matching ASML's,...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC's cash dividend has surged by 65% in 2 years and is expected to keep increasing. Consensus forecasts show TSMC's EPS growth matching ASML's,...