CEO, Manalo LLP

Roderick Manlo

Manalo LLP

We provide event driven research services to hedge fund managers and institutional investors that cover select definitive and pre-announced M&A deals, focusing on identifying and analysing the key upside and downside risks to a particular transaction. We primarily analyse $billion+ takeovers or mergers of publicly-traded European targets, but also look at deals globally to assess when there is a key European angle or aspect that can influence the deal outcome.

With over 16 years’ experience in risk arbitrage and investment banking, we specialise in providing research and advisory services on all facets of risk arbitrage, with particular expertise in:

- Cross-Border M&A
- Hostile Takeovers
- Local Takeover Codes
- Antitrust & Competition
- Financial Valuation
- Shareholder Vote Analysis
- Impacts of Precedent Transactions
- Risk Arbitrage Trading Strategies

Event-Driven

Abertis Infraestructuras Sa / Event-Driven

ACS has been successful in structuring a deal that uses Hochtief as a vehicle to acquire Abertis. Hochtief proposed a competing offer for Abertis (an all-cash offer at €18.76 per share, and a 0.1281 HOT GY share alternative, both subject to minimum acceptances) which has a larger-than-expected premium to Atlantia’s pending offer (+14%). There are some key effects resulting from the structure of this counterbid and we assess the upcoming strategies and opportunities for the companies involved.

ACS has been successful in structuring a deal that uses Hochtief as a vehicle to acquire Abertis. Hochtief proposed a competing offer for Abertis (an all-cash offer at €18.76 per share, and a 0.1281 HOT GY share alternative, both subject to minimum acceptances) which has a larger-than-expected premium to Atlantia’s pending offer (+14%). There are some key effects resulting from the structure of this counterbid and we assess the upcoming strategies and opportunities for the companies involved.

Abertis /​ Atlantia: Strategies Behind the Hochtief & ACS Counterbid

There have recently been a few important developments in Abertis / Atlantia , notably that ACS is reportedly close to proposing a counterbid for Abertis using a Hochtief (HOT GY) vehicle. In the Spanish press it was reported that: 1) a counterbid may come in mid-October; 2) Hochtief will be the lead and an essential participant; 3) an offer may be all-cash, funded by additional sponsor equity, debt and a Hochtief capital increase; and, 4) the likelihood of a new proposal is more than 50%. While all speculation, the news has supported Abertis shares to breach the €17 per share barrier, the level at which ACS is expected to propose its counterbid. We explore the potential avenues that ACS will have explored for financing a counterbid (using Hochtief, increasing leverage, raising equity, selling assets) and the inherent risks in all of these options.

There have recently been a few important developments in Abertis / Atlantia , notably that ACS is reportedly close to proposing a counterbid for Abertis using a Hochtief (HOT GY) vehicle. In the Spanish press it was reported that: 1) a counterbid may come in mid-October; 2) Hochtief will be the lead and an essential participant; 3) an offer may be all-cash, funded by additional sponsor equity, debt and a Hochtief capital increase; and, 4) the likelihood of a new proposal is more than 50%. While all speculation, the news has supported Abertis shares to breach the €17 per share barrier, the level at which ACS is expected to propose its counterbid. We explore the potential avenues that ACS will have explored for financing a counterbid (using Hochtief, increasing leverage, raising equity, selling assets) and the inherent risks in all of these options.

Abertis / Atlantia: An ACS Counterbid - M&A Financing Considerations

Special Situations, Content Strategist, Smartkarma

Crispin Francis

Special Situations, Content Strategist

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

On 13 April 2017, there was news about a potential takeover of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21241" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21241:1">Abertis Infraestructuras SA (ABE SM)</a>.On 18 April 2017, Abertis announced that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21157" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21157:1">Atlantia SpA (ATL IM)</a> had expressed its interest in assessing a potential corporate transaction, the terms of which were unspecified at the time (<a href="https://www.abertis.com/media/relevants_facts/2017/04/18/RF%20CNMV%20ATL%20vs.%20def.pdf" target="_blank">link</a> to Abertis response).Close to a month later, 15 May 2017, Atlantia officially launched an offer for Abertis at EUR 16.50 per Abertis share with an option for a partial share alternative.In this insight, we take a look at the EUR 15 bn transaction...more below the fold.

On 13 April 2017, there was news about a potential takeover of Abertis Infraestructuras SA (ABE SM).On 18 April 2017, Abertis announced that Atlantia SpA (ATL IM) had expressed its interest in assessing a potential corporate transaction, the terms of which were unspecified at the time (link to Abertis response).Close to a month later, 15 May 2017, Atlantia officially launched an offer for Abertis at EUR 16.50 per Abertis share with an option for a partial share alternative.In this insight, we take a look at the EUR 15 bn transaction...more below the fold. 

Abertis / Atlantia - Revisiting a Merger Blocked a Decade Ago

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Container Shipping - Asia Import Drive Will Boost Asia-Europe-Asia Box Profits for CarriersBackground - Space shortage has disrupted the Europe-Asia container trade in February and March and European exporters face highly unusual space crunch. This is highly unusual for a ‘back-haul’ route where ship utilization rarely reaches 70%. Carriers charged an ‘emergency minimum rate’ to accept bookings and some of them have put a stop to bookings until mid-April. Boxes already on the quay are getting…

Container Shipping - Asia Import Drive Will Boost Asia-Europe-Asia Box Profits for CarriersBackground - Space shortage has disrupted the Europe-Asia container trade in February and March and European exporters face highly unusual space crunch. This is highly unusual for a ‘back-haul’ route where ship utilization rarely reaches 70%. Carriers charged an ‘emergency minimum rate’ to accept bookings and some of them have put a stop to bookings until mid-April. Boxes already on the quay are getting…

Container Shipping - Asia Import Drive Will Boost Asia-Europe-Asia Box Profits for Carriers

Dry Bulk Shipping - Why It’s Time for Dry Bulk Stocks to Take a BreatherWe have been positive on the dry bulk sector since mid-2016 but the near term valuations seem undemanding to us and are at risk of running ahead of fundamentals. The bottoming out process in 2016 and subsequent run up in 2017 has been on the back of reversal in asset values, narrowing supply-demand imbalance and expectations of supportive commodity demand. We have earlier talked about the sector under ownership and…

Dry Bulk Shipping - Why It’s Time for Dry Bulk Stocks to Take a BreatherWe have been positive on the dry bulk sector since mid-2016 but the near term valuations seem undemanding to us and are at risk of running ahead of fundamentals. The bottoming out process in 2016 and subsequent run up in 2017 has been on the back of reversal in asset values, narrowing supply-demand imbalance and expectations of supportive commodity demand. We have earlier talked about the sector under ownership and…

Dry Bulk Shipping - Why It's Time for Dry Bulk Stocks to Take a Breather

Spain

Abertis Infraestructuras S.A. is an international group which manages mobility and telecommunications infrastructures through three business areas: tollroads, telecommunications infrastructures and airports. The group is present in Europe and the Americas.

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Abertis Infraestructuras Sa (ABE SM)

Abertis / Atlantia: Strategies Behind the Hochtief & ACS Counterbid

ACS has been successful in structuring a deal that uses Hochtief as a vehicle to acquire Abertis. Hochtief proposed a competing offer for Abertis...

Roderick Manlo

Abertis / Atlantia: An ACS Counterbid - M&A Financing Considerations

There have recently been a few important developments in Abertis / Atlantia , notably that ACS is reportedly close to proposing a counterbid for...

Roderick Manlo

Abertis / Atlantia - Revisiting a Merger Blocked a Decade Ago

On 13 April 2017, there was news about a potential takeover of Abertis Infraestructuras SA (ABE SM).On 18 April 2017, Abertis announced that...

Crispin Francis

Container Shipping - Asia Import Drive Will Boost Asia-Europe-Asia Box Profits for Carriers

Container Shipping - Asia Import Drive Will Boost Asia-Europe-Asia Box Profits for CarriersBackground - Space shortage has disrupted the...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Dry Bulk Shipping - Why It's Time for Dry Bulk Stocks to Take a Breather

Dry Bulk Shipping - Why It’s Time for Dry Bulk Stocks to Take a BreatherWe have been positive on the dry bulk sector since mid-2016 but the near...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Abertis /​ Atlantia: Strategies Behind the Hochtief & ACS Counterbid

ACS has been successful in structuring a deal that uses Hochtief as a vehicle to acquire Abertis. Hochtief proposed a competing offer for Abertis...

Roderick Manlo

Abertis / Atlantia: An ACS Counterbid - M&A Financing Considerations

There have recently been a few important developments in Abertis / Atlantia , notably that ACS is reportedly close to proposing a counterbid for...

Roderick Manlo

Abertis / Atlantia - Revisiting a Merger Blocked a Decade Ago

On 13 April 2017, there was news about a potential takeover of Abertis Infraestructuras SA (ABE SM).On 18 April 2017, Abertis announced that...

Crispin Francis

Container Shipping - Asia Import Drive Will Boost Asia-Europe-Asia Box Profits for Carriers

Container Shipping - Asia Import Drive Will Boost Asia-Europe-Asia Box Profits for CarriersBackground - Space shortage has disrupted the...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Dry Bulk Shipping - Why It's Time for Dry Bulk Stocks to Take a Breather

Dry Bulk Shipping - Why It’s Time for Dry Bulk Stocks to Take a BreatherWe have been positive on the dry bulk sector since mid-2016 but the near...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Abertis / Atlantia: Strategies Behind the Hochtief & ACS Counterbid