Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain a Neutral rating, with a new fair value of Bt149.06 (vs. Bt138.23 previously), following the adjustments to the macroeconomic variables, in line with our house view assumptions.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that the stock is fundamentally undervalued (with upside of 8.4% to the current share price); however, this is offset by slow earnings growth prospects and a neutral tactical view.</li><li>BBL’s 2Q24 net profit beat our forecast by 17% at Bt11.8bn, growing 4.5% YoY and 12.2% QoQ.</li></ul>

We maintain a Neutral rating, with a new fair value of Bt149.06 (vs. Bt138.23 previously), following the adjustments to the macroeconomic variables, in line with our house view assumptions.The valuation metrics suggest that the stock is fundamentally undervalued (with upside of 8.4% to the current share price); however, this is offset by slow earnings growth prospects and a neutral tactical view.BBL’s 2Q24 net profit beat our forecast by 17% at Bt11.8bn, growing 4.5% YoY and 12.2% QoQ.

Bangkok Bank - Upbeat 2Q24 Earnings but Weaker Asset Quality

<ul><li>We maintain our Neutral rating, based on the earnings yield and the new required rate of return of 16.7%.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that the stock is fundamentally undervalued, which is offset by an expected low CAGR of 3.4% in 2024-26E.</li><li>Meanwhile, the tactical view is neutral</li></ul>

We maintain our Neutral rating, based on the earnings yield and the new required rate of return of 16.7%.The valuation metrics suggest that the stock is fundamentally undervalued, which is offset by an expected low CAGR of 3.4% in 2024-26E.Meanwhile, the tactical view is neutral

Bangkok Bank - 2Q24E Net Profit Expected to Fall YoY and QoQ

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Thailand, Macau and Hong Kong report negative loan growth in monthly HFD data.</li>
<li>Japan may be the most surprising with relatively high growth and relative to last year. </li>
<li>Indonesia moves from strength to strength, where India loan growth is high, but less so.</li>
</ul>


Thailand, Macau and Hong Kong report negative loan growth in monthly HFD data.
Japan may be the most surprising with relatively high growth and relative to last year. 
Indonesia moves from strength to strength, where India loan growth is high, but less so.


Global Credit Growth - Thailand, Macau, HK Report Negative Loan Growth, Japan, Indonesia Shine

Product Marketing Manager, Criat

Raghav Chandra Mathur

Product Marketing Manager

Next-Generation Credit Analytics Provider

Criat

Criat specializes in new-generation data-driven credit analytics. Leveraging our industry-leading DeepCredit analytical technologies, we produce daily-updated forward-looking credit assessment and valuation to help financial institutions stay ahead of risks. Coupled with use-case-driven applications, we extract insights, answer questions and enable smarter credit decisions.

<ul><li>The strong showing of economic data from the US for the first three months of 2024 has spurred bets that the Federal Reserve’s is going to delay cutting rates towards the latter half of this year.</li><li>The narrative surrounding ‘imminent’ rate cuts that dominated market perception near the end of last year has been thwarted by the Fed’s chair Jerome Powell suggesting that rates are likely to remain elevated, without the market completely discounting the possibility of further rate hikes.</li><li>The immediate fallout from the higher-than-expected March inflation figures led to a systematic drop in Asian currencies, especially for some ASEAN based currencies, such as the Malaysian Ringgit, that have already been embattled by weakening currency against the dollar since the start of this year.</li></ul>

The strong showing of economic data from the US for the first three months of 2024 has spurred bets that the Federal Reserve’s is going to delay cutting rates towards the latter half of this year.The narrative surrounding ‘imminent’ rate cuts that dominated market perception near the end of last year has been thwarted by the Fed’s chair Jerome Powell suggesting that rates are likely to remain elevated, without the market completely discounting the possibility of further rate hikes.The immediate fallout from the higher-than-expected March inflation figures led to a systematic drop in Asian currencies, especially for some ASEAN based currencies, such as the Malaysian Ringgit, that have already been embattled by weakening currency against the dollar since the start of this year.

Strong ASEAN Banks Poised Well to Face Uncertain Rate Outlook

<ul>
<li>It's the largest bank by assets in Indonesia, but its loan growth is about 2x the country aggregate growth rate. </li>
<li>NPL decline is stronger than most all banks in the country over the past few years, implications for credit costs are positive. </li>
<li>Boring old costs should not be ignored, especially where they are driving radical expansion of ROA. </li>
</ul>


It's the largest bank by assets in Indonesia, but its loan growth is about 2x the country aggregate growth rate. 
NPL decline is stronger than most all banks in the country over the past few years, implications for credit costs are positive. 
Boring old costs should not be ignored, especially where they are driving radical expansion of ROA. 


Bank Mandiri - All Cylinders Firing Strong

Thailand

Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited provides various banking and financial services including commercial, consumer, credit card, and mortgage lending, international trade financing, investment banking, and securities services.

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Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB)

Bangkok Bank - Upbeat 2Q24 Earnings but Weaker Asset Quality

We maintain a Neutral rating, with a new fair value of Bt149.06 (vs. Bt138.23 previously), following the adjustments to the macroeconomic...

Krungthai XSpring

Bangkok Bank - 2Q24E Net Profit Expected to Fall YoY and QoQ

The valuation metrics suggest that the stock is fundamentally undervalued, which is offset by an expected low CAGR of 3.4% in 2024-26E. Meanwhile,...

Krungthai XSpring

Global Credit Growth - Thailand, Macau, HK Report Negative Loan Growth, Japan, Indonesia Shine

Global credit growth data on a monthly basis, shows a vast range of cycles, with Thailand, Macau and HK the worse off. Japan, Taiwan, Indonesia...

Daniel Tabbush

Strong ASEAN Banks Poised Well to Face Uncertain Rate Outlook

The strong showing of economic data from the US for the first three months of 2024 has spurred bets that the Federal Reserve’s is going to delay...

Criat

Bank Mandiri - All Cylinders Firing Strong

BMRI reveals cyclical and structural strength to such as a degree that its ROA is highest in its history. Loan growth, NPL decline, lower operating...

Daniel Tabbush

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