Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

Brilliance China Automotive / Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21591" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21591">BMW AG</a> 2016 Q1 <a href="https://www.bmwgroup.com/content/dam/bmw-group-websites/bmwgroup_com/ir/finanzberichte/pdf/en/Q1_2016_BMW_Group_engl_Online.pdf" target="_blank">results</a> are out and there are China numbers.There is not a lot of new information to help understand the Baoxin situation better but there are a few tidbits to help understand Q1 results and production and the very large discrepancy between domestically manufactured vehicle sales and local production.<div class="content-highlight">In one sentence, domestically-manufactured vehicle (those produced by the BMW Brilliance Automotive, Shenyang JV) count dropped significantly while domestically-manufactured sales…</div>

BMW AG 2016 Q1 results are out and there are China numbers.There is not a lot of new information to help understand the Baoxin situation better but there are a few tidbits to help understand Q1 results and production and the very large discrepancy between domestically manufactured vehicle sales and local production.In one sentence, domestically-manufactured vehicle (those produced by the BMW Brilliance Automotive, Shenyang JV) count dropped significantly while domestically-manufactured sales…

BMW Reports Q1 - Implied Brilliance JV Numbers Not Great

Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>The Recent Mitsubishi Motors News</h2>Last week on April 20th, the Nikkei ran an article with 45mins left in the trading day noting that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/794" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:794">Mitsubishi Motors Corp</a> (MMC) ran the wrong fuel economy tests on minicars it sold from 2013 onward, and the article made it sound like there was deliberate falsification of test data. The stock plummeted 15% in a hurry.  Market observers were reminded of an effort by Mitsubishi Motors in the early Noughties to hide defects which had possibly played a part in a few…

The Recent Mitsubishi Motors NewsLast week on April 20th, the Nikkei ran an article with 45mins left in the trading day noting that Mitsubishi Motors Corp (MMC) ran the wrong fuel economy tests on minicars it sold from 2013 onward, and the article made it sound like there was deliberate falsification of test data. The stock plummeted 15% in a hurry.  Market observers were reminded of an effort by Mitsubishi Motors in the early Noughties to hide defects which had possibly played a part in a few…

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media, CM Research

Cyrus Mewawalla

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media

Thematic TMT investing

CM Research

CM Research is an independent research house based in London, England. We provide global thematic research in the Technology, Media and Telecoms (TMT) sectors. 

Our focus is on disruptive technologies: how will they unfold; which industries will be impacted; and who will be the ultimate winners and losers. 

Our aim is to help investors predict share prices and corporate executives stay one step ahead of the technology trends that are shaping their industry. 

We research technology investment themes in detail and then feed the results into a scorecard system to quantify the impact of several conflicting themes on individual stocks. 

Recent themes covered include internet TV, the Internet of Things, Big Data, Mobile payments, crowdfunding, artificial intelligence, the cloud, software defined networking and Generation Hashtag.

We cover the top 500 global TMT stocks by market capitalisation and several technology start-ups and pre-IPO companies too. 

In 2015, CM Research analysts outperformed the Bloomberg Benchmark Analyst Index - which measures how good analysts are at predicting stock prices - by 7.1%.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>TV broadcasters still control 93% of subscriptions and advertising revenues that pass through the TV set. The remaining 7% of revenues relates to video streaming services like Netflix.</li><li>But Internet TV will move faster and be more disruptive than analysts predict.</li><li>The inflection point will be the arrival of a “pure” internet TV in which all TV viewing is accessed by a single operating system, probably remote controlled by a smartphone or tablet.</li><li>Film and TV studios will see content prices bid up as technology companies – like Apple, Netflix and Alibaba – compete to acquire content rights.</li><li>TV broadcasters will report profit warnings as they lose control of payTV subscription revenues and TV advertising revenues.</li></ul>

TV broadcasters still control 93% of subscriptions and advertising revenues that pass through the TV set. The remaining 7% of revenues relates to video streaming services like Netflix.But Internet TV will move faster and be more disruptive than analysts predict.The inflection point will be the arrival of a “pure” internet TV in which all TV viewing is accessed by a single operating system, probably remote controlled by a smartphone or tablet.Film and TV studios will see content prices bid up as technology companies – like Apple, Netflix and Alibaba – compete to acquire content rights.TV broadcasters will report profit warnings as they lose control of payTV subscription revenues and TV advertising revenues.

On March 24th after the close of trading, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20829" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20829">Baoxin Auto Group Ltd</a> ("Baoxin")and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/17171" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17171">China Grand Automotive Services Co Ltd</a> ("CGAS") released a <a href="http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/SEHK/2016/0324/LTN20160324845.pdf" target="_blank">Joint Announcement</a> Update on the Satisfaction of Pre-Conditions from the "Rule 3.5 Announcement of 11 December 2015. The main content of the update is that...<blockquote>
with respect to Pre-Condition (b), the filing notice from the NDRC, the approval from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the filing notice from Shanghai Municipal Commission of Commerce of the PRC or…
</blockquote>

On March 24th after the close of trading, Baoxin Auto Group Ltd ("Baoxin")and China Grand Automotive Services Co Ltd ("CGAS") released a Joint Announcement Update on the Satisfaction of Pre-Conditions from the "Rule 3.5 Announcement of 11 December 2015. The main content of the update is that...
with respect to Pre-Condition (b), the filing notice from the NDRC, the approval from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the filing notice from Shanghai Municipal Commission of Commerce of the PRC or…


Baoxin Pre-Conditions Remaining: SAFE, Sales? And Signatures

Last Friday, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20829" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20829">Baoxin Auto Group Ltd</a> (1293 HK) released a <a href="http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/SEHK/2016/0318/LTN20160318552.pdf" target="_blank">Joint Announcement</a> containing an updated list of Irrevocable Undertakings to ACCEPT the Offer, adding another 98 million shares to the total. Various media sources (some well-known to risk arbitrageurs) had suggested over the past few weeks that the delay in some of the approvals - most notably from the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Commerce and by the banks approved by SAFE for the foreign exchange transaction (to enable <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/17171" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17171">China Grand</a>…

Last Friday, Baoxin Auto Group Ltd (1293 HK) released a Joint Announcement containing an updated list of Irrevocable Undertakings to ACCEPT the Offer, adding another 98 million shares to the total. Various media sources (some well-known to risk arbitrageurs) had suggested over the past few weeks that the delay in some of the approvals - most notably from the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Commerce and by the banks approved by SAFE for the foreign exchange transaction (to enable China Grand…

BAOXIN: Further Undertakings -If You Think This Gets Done, It's Too Cheap. Gotta Have It.

Germany

Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (BMW) manufactures and sells cars and motorcycles. The Company offers convertible sports cars, sedans, and touring motorcycles with large displacement engines. BMW serves customers worldwide.

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Bayerische Motoren Werke (BMW) (BMW GR)

BMW Reports Q1 - Implied Brilliance JV Numbers Not Great

BMW AG 2016 Q1 results are out and there are China numbers.There is not a lot of new information to help understand the Baoxin situation better but...

Travis Lundy

More Mitsubishi Motors Muppetry

The Recent Mitsubishi Motors NewsLast week on April 20th, the Nikkei ran an article with 45mins left in the trading day noting that Mitsubishi...

Travis Lundy

Internet TV as an Investment Theme

TV broadcasters still control 93% of subscriptions and advertising revenues that pass through the TV set. The remaining 7% of revenues relates to...

CM Research

Baoxin Pre-Conditions Remaining: SAFE, Sales? And Signatures

On March 24th after the close of trading, Baoxin Auto Group Ltd ("Baoxin")and China Grand Automotive Services Co Ltd ("CGAS") released a Joint...

Travis Lundy

BAOXIN: Further Undertakings -If You Think This Gets Done, It's Too Cheap. Gotta Have It.

Last Friday, Baoxin Auto Group Ltd (1293 HK) released a Joint Announcement containing an updated list of Irrevocable Undertakings to ACCEPT the...

Travis Lundy

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