Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Today after the close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20799:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP)</a> announced that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ms-ad-insurance-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:631:1" rel="noopener">MS&amp;AD Insurance (8725 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-mitsui-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:217:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)</a> would sell 14.9mm shares in an offering.</li>
<li>This will get priced today or tomorrow, sold to institutional investors. This is ¥107bn, 4 days of ADV and 1% of shares out. It is not dilutive. </li>
<li>Mitsui &amp; Co has a buyback program with ¥123bn left til end-Sep, when presumably it will reload. Looks easy today, but measuring Mitsui &amp; Co vs Peers is less flattering.</li>
</ul>


Today after the close, Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP) announced that MS&amp;AD Insurance (8725 JP) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) would sell 14.9mm shares in an offering.
This will get priced today or tomorrow, sold to institutional investors. This is ¥107bn, 4 days of ADV and 1% of shares out. It is not dilutive. 
Mitsui &amp; Co has a buyback program with ¥123bn left til end-Sep, when presumably it will reload. Looks easy today, but measuring Mitsui &amp; Co vs Peers is less flattering.


Mitsui & Co (8031) - ¥100bn Overnight Equity Offering

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Norinchukin Bank plans to sell JPY10 trillion of foreign government bonds, crystallising a chunk of the JPY2.19 trillion of unrealized bond losses, as it also looks to raise JPY1.2 trillion</li>
<li>We explore the bigger cap banks’ foreign bond holding and unrealized gains or losses, including those of Japan Post Bank; Norinchukin is clearly the negative outlier of this peer group</li>
<li>We do not see Norinchukin as a canary in the coalmine for the big-caps’ risks on foreign bond exposure; we stick with buys on Resona, Mizuho, SMFG and Concordia</li>
</ul>


Norinchukin Bank plans to sell JPY10 trillion of foreign government bonds, crystallising a chunk of the JPY2.19 trillion of unrealized bond losses, as it also looks to raise JPY1.2 trillion
We explore the bigger cap banks’ foreign bond holding and unrealized gains or losses, including those of Japan Post Bank; Norinchukin is clearly the negative outlier of this peer group
We do not see Norinchukin as a canary in the coalmine for the big-caps’ risks on foreign bond exposure; we stick with buys on Resona, Mizuho, SMFG and Concordia


Norinchukin Bank – Sector Outlier Rather than Big-Cap Bank Canary in the Coalmine

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Short term borrowing rose 2.3x in the past four quarters, alongside rising interest rates</li>
<li>During this time, long term borrowings were actually down, so no locking in of low rates</li>
<li>As such, Chiba is not fully, or hardly benefiting from BOJ policy changes, with NIM down</li>
</ul>


Short term borrowing rose 2.3x in the past four quarters, alongside rising interest rates
During this time, long term borrowings were actually down, so no locking in of low rates
As such, Chiba is not fully, or hardly benefiting from BOJ policy changes, with NIM down


Chiba Bank - Short Term Borrowing Surges, Just at the Wrong Time

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kagome-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14533:1" rel="noopener">Kagome Co Ltd (2811 JP)</a> aims to raise around US$140m to repay debt used to fund the acquisition of Ingomar in Jan 2024.</li>
<li>At the time of the acquisition, the company has stated its intention to part finance the acquisition via issuance of treasury shares</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Kagome Co Ltd (2811 JP) aims to raise around US$140m to repay debt used to fund the acquisition of Ingomar in Jan 2024.
At the time of the acquisition, the company has stated its intention to part finance the acquisition via issuance of treasury shares
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Kagome Placement - Very Well Flagged Deal but Liquidity Might Be a Concern

<ul>
<li>Thailand, Macau and Hong Kong report negative loan growth in monthly HFD data.</li>
<li>Japan may be the most surprising with relatively high growth and relative to last year. </li>
<li>Indonesia moves from strength to strength, where India loan growth is high, but less so.</li>
</ul>


Thailand, Macau and Hong Kong report negative loan growth in monthly HFD data.
Japan may be the most surprising with relatively high growth and relative to last year. 
Indonesia moves from strength to strength, where India loan growth is high, but less so.


Global Credit Growth - Thailand, Macau, HK Report Negative Loan Growth, Japan, Indonesia Shine

Japan

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. manages financial operations for its subsidiaries. The Company provides commercial banking and a variety of financial services.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

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Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

Mitsui & Co (8031) - ¥100bn Overnight Equity Offering

MSAD Insurance, SMBC are selling 1.0% of TSO of Mitsui & Co (8031). Small deal at US$670mm and 3.7d of ADV on popular name. There's a buyback to...

Travis Lundy

Norinchukin Bank – Sector Outlier Rather than Big-Cap Bank Canary in the Coalmine

Norinchukin's big unrealized bond portfolio losses are not representative of interest rate risk in the bigger cap banks, Norinchukin is an...

Victor Galliano

Chiba Bank - Short Term Borrowing Surges, Just at the Wrong Time

Chiba Bank has opted to grossly raise its short term borrowings as JPY rates start to rise while not locking in long term borrowings.

Daniel Tabbush

Kagome Placement - Very Well Flagged Deal but Liquidity Might Be a Concern

Kagome Co Ltd (2811 JP) aims to raise around US$140m to repay debt used to fund the acquisition of Ingomar in Jan 2024. In this note, we run the...

Sumeet Singh

Global Credit Growth - Thailand, Macau, HK Report Negative Loan Growth, Japan, Indonesia Shine

Global credit growth data on a monthly basis, shows a vast range of cycles, with Thailand, Macau and HK the worse off. Japan, Taiwan, Indonesia...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Mitsui & Co (8031) - ¥100bn Overnight Equity Offering

MSAD Insurance, SMBC are selling 1.0% of TSO of Mitsui & Co (8031). Small deal at US$670mm and 3.7d of ADV on popular name. There's a buyback to...

Travis Lundy

Norinchukin Bank – Sector Outlier Rather than Big-Cap Bank Canary in the Coalmine

​Norinchukin's big unrealized bond portfolio losses are not representative of interest rate risk in the bigger cap banks, Norinchukin is an...

Victor Galliano

Chiba Bank - Short Term Borrowing Surges, Just at the Wrong Time

Chiba Bank has opted to grossly raise its short term borrowings as JPY rates start to rise while not locking in long term borrowings.

Daniel Tabbush

Kagome Placement - Very Well Flagged Deal but Liquidity Might Be a Concern

Kagome Co Ltd (2811 JP) aims to raise around US$140m to repay debt used to fund the acquisition of Ingomar in Jan 2024. In this note, we run the...

Sumeet Singh

Global Credit Growth - Thailand, Macau, HK Report Negative Loan Growth, Japan, Indonesia Shine

Global credit growth data on a monthly basis, shows a vast range of cycles, with Thailand, Macau and HK the worse off. Japan, Taiwan, Indonesia...

Daniel Tabbush

Norinchukin's big unrealized bond portfolio losses are not representative of interest rate risk in the bigger cap banks, Norinchukin is an...