FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

All major equities are again below the lows in 2015 after a dead-cat bounce sending another body-blow to global investor confidence.  Bottom fishers will be tentative and choppy bearish markets are likely to persist.  Financials (led by Europe) are leading the falls in equities; regulatory pressure implemented in the wake of the global and Eurozone financial crises and litigation and compliance costs since the LIBOR and FX fixing scandals are coming home to roost and creating an echo of the financial stress that undermined global economic confidence in the crises of the last decade.  EUR is whippy as investors cope with Euro-centric financial sector stress, but this is only likely to embolden the ECB to adopt more aggressive policy easing measures.  It is possible they emulate the BoJ and adopt a tiered cash rate policy resplendent with a much lower more negative marginal cash rate.  The outcome would be much lower yields across the EUR curve and a weaker EUR (we much prefer to sell EUR against Gold; as discussed in our previous two reports). Australia has proven resilient to global economic and financial stress, but its banks are being infected by global pressures, and we see a significant risk that RBA scope to cut rates turns into an obligation before long.  We see a fallback in the AUD (again we prefer to sell against gold).

All major equities are again below the lows in 2015 after a dead-cat bounce sending another body-blow to global investor confidence.  Bottom fishers will be tentative and choppy bearish markets are likely to persist.  Financials (led by Europe) are leading the falls in equities; regulatory pressure implemented in the wake of the global and Eurozone financial crises and litigation and compliance costs since the LIBOR and FX fixing scandals are coming home to roost and creating an echo of the financial stress that undermined global economic confidence in the crises of the last decade.  EUR is whippy as investors cope with Euro-centric financial sector stress, but this is only likely to embolden the ECB to adopt more aggressive policy easing measures.  It is possible they emulate the BoJ and adopt a tiered cash rate policy resplendent with a much lower more negative marginal cash rate.  The outcome would be much lower yields across the EUR curve and a weaker EUR (we much prefer to sell EUR against Gold; as discussed in our previous two reports). Australia has proven resilient to global economic and financial stress, but its banks are being infected by global pressures, and we see a significant risk that RBA scope to cut rates turns into an obligation before long.  We see a fallback in the AUD (again we prefer to sell against gold).

AmpGFX - Dead-Cats and Body Blows, Financial Crisis Echo, RBA Scope to Become Obligation

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

After reports <a href="http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/LCD-merger-plan-raises-more-questions-than-answers" target="_blank">yesterday</a> and this morning that Sharp's banks and external directors had recommended Sharp "reconsider" or "take a deeper look at" <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/745" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:745">Hon Hai's</a> offer, NHK is <a href="http://goo.gl/CceAb4" target="_blank">reporting</a> a headline saying Sharp has chosen Hon Hai. The rest of this assumes that to be the case.This is good for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/219" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:219">Mizuho</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/218" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218">Mitsubishi UFJ</a> and sets a precedent. It shows governance is to be respected over "national interest."  While nothing known for certain, details of how the plan might work economically for Sharp…

After reports yesterday and this morning that Sharp's banks and external directors had recommended Sharp "reconsider" or "take a deeper look at" Hon Hai's offer, NHK is reporting a headline saying Sharp has chosen Hon Hai. The rest of this assumes that to be the case.This is good for Mizuho and Mitsubishi UFJ and sets a precedent. It shows governance is to be respected over "national interest."  While nothing known for certain, details of how the plan might work economically for Sharp…

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Our sell out of Asian longs yesterday was timely. S&amp;P top is in place at 1,940 (futures) after hitting our base case level of 1,938 with risk to 1,950. We failed to short the S&amp;P but now calibrating levels on a bounce to short financials, small caps and the S&amp;P. The fact that we broke below 1,910 implies a top is in place. Weak sector links telegraphing further weakness. Our macro bear targets remains at S&amp;P 1,720 (tactical rise) and then 1,620.<div>S&amp;P 1,875 is a level to stage a recovery back to…</div>

Our sell out of Asian longs yesterday was timely. S&amp;P top is in place at 1,940 (futures) after hitting our base case level of 1,938 with risk to 1,950. We failed to short the S&amp;P but now calibrating levels on a bounce to short financials, small caps and the S&amp;P. The fact that we broke below 1,910 implies a top is in place. Weak sector links telegraphing further weakness. Our macro bear targets remains at S&amp;P 1,720 (tactical rise) and then 1,620.S&amp;P 1,875 is a level to stage a recovery back to…

Global Macro Strategy

Callum Henderson

* The BoJ shocked the market, cutting rates to negative and threatening further rate cuts if needed* The apparent change in BoJ stance has to be viewed in the wake of the ECB and Fed statements* The BoJ rate cut is a de facto protest of tighter Japanese monetary conditions due to JPY strength* Leveraged funds on the CFTC had the largest long JPY position ahead of this since October 2012* Recent JPY gains are likely to retrace over the next few weeks, notably against AUD, INR and KRW

* The BoJ shocked the market, cutting rates to negative and threatening further rate cuts if needed* The apparent change in BoJ stance has to be viewed in the wake of the ECB and Fed statements* The BoJ rate cut is a de facto protest of tighter Japanese monetary conditions due to JPY strength* Leveraged funds on the CFTC had the largest long JPY position ahead of this since October 2012* Recent JPY gains are likely to retrace over the next few weeks, notably against AUD, INR and KRW

Asia Calling: From Currency Wars to Competitive Monetary Easing

In the beginning, Arthur Fonzarelli was cool.<figure class="editor-figure"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/005/155/original/fonz.jpg?1453465588" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="5155"></figure> Then, after four seasons of hit sitcom Happy Days, the writers apparently felt things were a bit dull so they created a plot device to liven things up. It was time for Arthur Fonzarelli (the Fonze) to jump a shark.  Literally. So they made up a story whereby he answered a challenge to his personal courage by having him waterski - resplendent in his leather motorcycle jacket - over a ramp in front of a pen holding a Great White Shark."Jumping the…

In the beginning, Arthur Fonzarelli was cool. Then, after four seasons of hit sitcom Happy Days, the writers apparently felt things were a bit dull so they created a plot device to liven things up. It was time for Arthur Fonzarelli (the Fonze) to jump a shark.  Literally. So they made up a story whereby he answered a challenge to his personal courage by having him waterski - resplendent in his leather motorcycle jacket - over a ramp in front of a pen holding a Great White Shark."Jumping the…

Japan

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (MUFG) is a holding company established through the merger of Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group and UFJ Holdings. As a financial group, the Company provides a variety of financial and investment services including commercial banking, trust banking, international finance, and assets management services.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

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Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

AmpGFX - Dead-Cats and Body Blows, Financial Crisis Echo, RBA Scope to Become Obligation

All major equities are again below the lows in 2015 after a dead-cat bounce sending another body-blow to global investor confidence. Bottom...

Greg Gibbs

JAPAN: Sharply Different!

After reports yesterday and this morning that Sharp's banks and external directors had recommended Sharp "reconsider" or "take a deeper look at"...

Travis Lundy

Increasing Shorts on Strength

Our sell out of Asian longs yesterday was timely. S&P top is in place at 1,940 (futures) after hitting our base case level of 1,938 with risk...

Thomas Schroeder

Asia Calling: From Currency Wars to Competitive Monetary Easing

* The BoJ shocked the market, cutting rates to negative and threatening further rate cuts if needed* The apparent change in BoJ stance has to be...

Callum Henderson

Jumping the Shark? Jumping the Sharp?

In the beginning, Arthur Fonzarelli was cool. Then, after four seasons of hit sitcom Happy Days, the writers apparently felt things were a bit dull...

Travis Lundy

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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