Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We must recognize the wide variance in credit growth rates across Asian countries</li>
<li>There are critical implications for differences in net interest income growth and profit</li>
<li>Credit metrics also tend to move in tandem with loan growth rates, as does GDP growth</li>
</ul>


We must recognize the wide variance in credit growth rates across Asian countries
There are critical implications for differences in net interest income growth and profit
Credit metrics also tend to move in tandem with loan growth rates, as does GDP growth


Asian Banks - Wide Variance in Credit Growth, and in Delta of Growth Rates in Recent Months

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-metro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40930:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Metro (9023 JP)</a>'s shareholders aim to raise up to US$2.4bn in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>Tokyo Metro (TKM) is one of the two metro network operators in the Tokyo region. It operates nine subway lines with a total of 180 stations.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO valuations.</li>
</ul>



Tokyo Metro (9023 JP)'s shareholders aim to raise up to US$2.4bn in its Japan IPO.
Tokyo Metro (TKM) is one of the two metro network operators in the Tokyo region. It operates nine subway lines with a total of 180 stations.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO valuations.


Tokyo Metro IPO - Will Price at the Top, but Isn’t Particularly Cheap

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-metro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40930:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Metro (9023 JP)</a>'s shareholders aim to raise up to US$2.3bn in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>Tokyo Metro (TKM) is one of the two metro network operators in the Tokyo region. It operates nine subway lines with a total of 180 stations.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>



Tokyo Metro (9023 JP)'s shareholders aim to raise up to US$2.3bn in its Japan IPO.
Tokyo Metro (TKM) is one of the two metro network operators in the Tokyo region. It operates nine subway lines with a total of 180 stations.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about valuations.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>On Monday, 30 September, shareholders of US$1.4bn market cap chemicals and housing materials supplier <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aica-kogyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9671:1" rel="noopener">Aica Kogyo (4206 JP)</a> announced a Secondary Share Sale. It's small at 2% of market cap.</li>
<li>The Offering is 2.1mm shares including greenshoe. The company also raised its H1 dividend guidance slightly (¥53/share to ¥56/share) and announced a buyback which should cover 57% of the offering.</li>
<li>It's a small deal. There are a lot more cross-holdings behind that but the company is cash-rich and the company is very cheap/underlevered on an LBO basis.</li>
</ul>


On Monday, 30 September, shareholders of US$1.4bn market cap chemicals and housing materials supplier Aica Kogyo (4206 JP) announced a Secondary Share Sale. It's small at 2% of market cap.
The Offering is 2.1mm shares including greenshoe. The company also raised its H1 dividend guidance slightly (¥53/share to ¥56/share) and announced a buyback which should cover 57% of the offering.
It's a small deal. There are a lot more cross-holdings behind that but the company is cash-rich and the company is very cheap/underlevered on an LBO basis.


Aica Kogyo (4206) - Small Offering Chips Away At Cross-Holdings

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-metro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40930:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Metro (9023 JP)</a>'s  shareholders aim to raise up to US$2.3bn in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>Tokyo Metro (TKM) is one of the two metro network operators in the Tokyo region. It operates nine subway lines with a total of 180 stations.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.</li>
</ul>



Tokyo Metro (9023 JP)'s  shareholders aim to raise up to US$2.3bn in its Japan IPO.
Tokyo Metro (TKM) is one of the two metro network operators in the Tokyo region. It operates nine subway lines with a total of 180 stations.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.


Tokyo Metro IPO - Peer Comparison - Pre-COVID to 1Q25

Japan

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (MUFG) is a holding company established through the merger of Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group and UFJ Holdings. As a financial group, the Company provides a variety of financial and investment services including commercial banking, trust banking, international finance, and assets management services.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

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Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

Asian Banks - Wide Variance in Credit Growth, and in Delta of Growth Rates in Recent Months

There is a wide variance of domestic loan growth rates in Asian countries, one must be highly selective. There are implications for growth of net...

Daniel Tabbush

Tokyo Metro IPO - Will Price at the Top, but Isn’t Particularly Cheap

Tokyo Metro (9023 JP)'s shareholders aim to raise up to US$2.4bn in its Japan IPO. In this note, we look at the valuation in the IPO price range.

Sumeet Singh

Tokyo Metro IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

The price range for the IPO has now been set at JPY1,100-1,200/share, which still looks fairly attractive in our view and would provide a good yield.

Sumeet Singh

Aica Kogyo (4206) - Small Offering Chips Away At Cross-Holdings

Aica Kogyo yesterday announced a small secondary offering designed to allow financial cross-holders to start selling down. There more to come...

Travis Lundy

Tokyo Metro IPO - Peer Comparison - Pre-COVID to 1Q25

Tokyo Metro (9023 JP)'s shareholders aim to raise up to US$2.3bn in its Japan IPO. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)