Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Msci Ac Asia Pacific Index / Technical Analysis

Global equities continue to stabilize, with the MSCI ACWI’s 50-day moving average acting like a magnet as prices have oscillated above and below it. More importantly, support levels have held and long-term uptrends are intact. While we expect to see continued heightened volatility and consolidation, our long-term outlook for global equities remains bullish.  In today’s report we put a spotlight on Japan, broad Europe, Germany, and the UK, where small-caps are outperforming large-caps.

Global equities continue to stabilize, with the MSCI ACWI’s 50-day moving average acting like a magnet as prices have oscillated above and below it. More importantly, support levels have held and long-term uptrends are intact. While we expect to see continued heightened volatility and consolidation, our long-term outlook for global equities remains bullish.  In today’s report we put a spotlight on Japan, broad Europe, Germany, and the UK, where small-caps are outperforming large-caps.

Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The vote to leave the European Union will have both shorter and longer term impacts on the UK economy. There will be a shorter term impact on demand and, separately, on potential supply. The longer term one will depend largely on the policy response. Any decline in demand can in principle be offset by a lower exchange rate or by fiscal or monetary stimulus. A reduction in potential supply can only be offset, after a delay, by increased investment. This is therefore the key challenge and policy success will be determined by the extent to which investment is stimulated and adequate long- term growth thereby assured. In addition, there is also likely to be a reduction in living standards through a deterioration in the terms of trade as a result of weaker sterling, but this was in any event likely as the exchange rate appeared overvalued before the vote.

The vote to leave the European Union will have both shorter and longer term impacts on the UK economy. There will be a shorter term impact on demand and, separately, on potential supply. The longer term one will depend largely on the policy response. Any decline in demand can in principle be offset by a lower exchange rate or by fiscal or monetary stimulus. A reduction in potential supply can only be offset, after a delay, by increased investment. This is therefore the key challenge and policy success will be determined by the extent to which investment is stimulated and adequate long- term growth thereby assured. In addition, there is also likely to be a reduction in living standards through a deterioration in the terms of trade as a result of weaker sterling, but this was in any event likely as the exchange rate appeared overvalued before the vote.  

Founder and CEO, Europacifica Consulting

Naomi Fink

Founder and CEO

Europacifica Consulting

Macroeconomics

Yen has been the (perhaps unwilling) beneficiary of the risk-aversion of Brexit.This type of environment is a high risk environment for MOF intervention, but where volatility is mainly concentrated in the GBP (see graphic) not yen, intervening in USDJPY might not be so useful.  Moreover, right while BOJ is supplying dollars via auction it is possible there is a desire not to intervene as a cross-current to this operation.That said, given skittish markets and yen’s status as a risk haven, MOF may stay on high intervention alert for quite some time.  It is a good idea to keep watching speculative positioning and volatility.Given upcoming elections, there is probably reason for a lot of political pressure on the MOF to intervene; still the focus is diverted from Abenomics to developments abroad, which might mean a fairly positive outcome for Abe.  Expect further justifications for delay in the consumption tax hike and fiscal spending package already planned.

Yen has been the (perhaps unwilling) beneficiary of the risk-aversion of Brexit.This type of environment is a high risk environment for MOF intervention, but where volatility is mainly concentrated in the GBP (see graphic) not yen, intervening in USDJPY might not be so useful.  Moreover, right while BOJ is supplying dollars via auction it is possible there is a desire not to intervene as a cross-current to this operation.That said, given skittish markets and yen’s status as a risk haven, MOF may stay on high intervention alert for quite some time.  It is a good idea to keep watching speculative positioning and volatility.Given upcoming elections, there is probably reason for a lot of political pressure on the MOF to intervene; still the focus is diverted from Abenomics to developments abroad, which might mean a fairly positive outcome for Abe.  Expect further justifications for delay in the consumption tax hike and fiscal spending package already planned.

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

There are a handful of listed banks in the UK. But there are nearly 300 UK banks in our SNL database, which include unlisted banks. These are mostly the subsidiaries of banks in other regions, including Asia. The immediate concern is how banks adjust their risk-weightings on their UK assets. S&amp;P and Moody's downgrades, will also affect UK bank counterparty risk. The more distant concern is the outlook for impairments on some of these assets, namely loans and corporate bonds. UK assets to group…

There are a handful of listed banks in the UK. But there are nearly 300 UK banks in our SNL database, which include unlisted banks. These are mostly the subsidiaries of banks in other regions, including Asia. The immediate concern is how banks adjust their risk-weightings on their UK assets. S&amp;P and Moody's downgrades, will also affect UK bank counterparty risk. The more distant concern is the outlook for impairments on some of these assets, namely loans and corporate bonds. UK assets to group…

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

The Brexit vote result is a clear negative for independent investment banks, and major banks with sizable crossborder transaction flows to a lesser extent. We plan to reduce the fair value estimates for Nomura Holdings as the company remains poorly positioned as a subscale investment bank with high conduct risk and repeated failures in expanding the global fixed income franchise. Nomura makes significant use of three subsidiaries under European Economic Area, or EEA, passporting privileges to reach its wholesale clients in continental Europe. For other banks, the impacts are likely to be less acute relative to Nomura as they do not hold too many derivative contracts under United Kingdom entities, and their direct exposures are largely limited to traditional lending functions to support foreign subsidiaries of the Japanese parent companies.Analysts: Mari Kumagai &amp; Michael Wu, CAIA

The Brexit vote result is a clear negative for independent investment banks, and major banks with sizable crossborder transaction flows to a lesser extent. We plan to reduce the fair value estimates for Nomura Holdings as the company remains poorly positioned as a subscale investment bank with high conduct risk and repeated failures in expanding the global fixed income franchise. Nomura makes significant use of three subsidiaries under European Economic Area, or EEA, passporting privileges to reach its wholesale clients in continental Europe. For other banks, the impacts are likely to be less acute relative to Nomura as they do not hold too many derivative contracts under United Kingdom entities, and their direct exposures are largely limited to traditional lending functions to support foreign subsidiaries of the Japanese parent companies.Analysts: Mari Kumagai &amp; Michael Wu, CAIA

The Brexit Vote Result Means Additional Headwinds ForJapanese Banks

United Kingdom

Jardine Lloyd Thompson Group plc (JLT) was a British multinational corporation providing insurance, reinsurance, and employment benefits advice and brokerage services. It offered risk assessment, insurance placement, claims management, and pension consulting to corporate clients across various industries. JLT was headquartered in London, England, and was founded in 1997 through the merger of Jardine Insurance Brokers and Lloyd Thompson Group.

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Jardine Lloyd Thompson (JLT LN)

Global Equity Strategy

Global equities continue to stabilize, with the MSCI ACWI’s 50-day moving average acting like a magnet as prices have oscillated above and below...

Vermilion Research

The UK Economy - After Brexit

The vote to leave the European Union will have both shorter and longer term impacts on the UK economy. There will be a shorter term impact on...

Pelham Smithers Associates

Macro Chart Focus: Brexit and the Yen

Yen has been the (perhaps unwilling) beneficiary of the risk-aversion of Brexit.This type of environment is a high risk environment for MOF...

Naomi Fink

UK Subsidiaries of Asian Banks

There are a handful of listed banks in the UK. But there are nearly 300 UK banks in our SNL database, which include unlisted banks. These are...

Daniel Tabbush

The Brexit Vote Result Means Additional Headwinds ForJapanese Banks

The Brexit vote result is a clear negative for independent investment banks, and major banks with sizable crossborder transaction flows to a lesser...

Morningstar, Inc.

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