Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>We believe there is significant evidence that global equities (MSCI ACWI) have bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. Buys highlighted in global Technology, Discretionary, Real Estate, and Steel/Mining.</li>
<li>We discussed in our prior Int'l Compass (11/2/23) how the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency) was bullish, and a potent rally has ensued. We expect more upside ahead.</li>
<li>Now getting bullish 3+ month downtrend reversals and false breakdowns in the EURO STOXX 50, ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), MSCI EM (EEM-US), and EAFE (EFA-US). Major risk-on signals everywhere.</li>
</ul>


We believe there is significant evidence that global equities (MSCI ACWI) have bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. Buys highlighted in global Technology, Discretionary, Real Estate, and Steel/Mining.
We discussed in our prior Int'l Compass (11/2/23) how the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency) was bullish, and a potent rally has ensued. We expect more upside ahead.
Now getting bullish 3+ month downtrend reversals and false breakdowns in the EURO STOXX 50, ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), MSCI EM (EEM-US), and EAFE (EFA-US). Major risk-on signals everywhere.


Year-End Rally Underway; Many Bullish Reversals/False Breakdowns; Buys: Tech, Cons. Disc., RE, Steel

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
 Highlights: Currently seven pair trade opportunities persist across three markets and five sectors. 
</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

 Highlights: Currently seven pair trade opportunities persist across three markets and five sectors. 


Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (24 Aug 2026)

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: In Australia, currently four pair trade opportunities persist across four sectors.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: In Australia, currently four pair trade opportunities persist across four sectors.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Australia: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (21 Aug 2026)

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP (BHP AU)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto (RIO AU)</a> price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
Highlight: Going long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto (RIO AU)</a> and short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP (BHP AU)</a> targets a 4% return.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The BHP (BHP AU) vs. Rio Tinto (RIO AU) price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

Highlight: Going long Rio Tinto (RIO AU) and short BHP (BHP AU) targets a 4% return.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


Rio Tinto (RIO AU) Vs BHP (BHP AU): Pair Trade Opportunity as Ratio Breaches Two Sigma

Research from Atrium Research, Atrium Research Corporation

Atrium Research

Research from Atrium Research

Atrium Research Corporation

Atrium Research provides institutional quality issuer paid research on public equities in North America. Our investment philosophy takes a 3-5 year view on equities currently being overlooked by the market. Our research process emphasizes understanding the key performance metrics for each specific company, trustworthy management teams, unit economics, and an in-depth valuation analysis. 

Our research product includes in-depth initiation reports, research notes, thematic research pieces, and company fact sheets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The precious metals and mining market significantly outperformed broader indices in the month of March with the GDX rising 15% versus the TSX being down slightly </li><li>Gold rallied heavily following the collapse of several major banks and the U.S. Fed guiding for a pause on rates in the near term</li><li>This month only strengthens our confidence that 2023 will be a standout year for both precious metals and base metals and encourage investors to position themselves accordingly Gold rose 7.2% in the month to $1,969.7/oz, silver rose 14.5% to $24.0/oz, and copper sat flat, down just 1.8% to $4.10/lb.</li></ul>

The precious metals and mining market significantly outperformed broader indices in the month of March with the GDX rising 15% versus the TSX being down slightly Gold rallied heavily following the collapse of several major banks and the U.S. Fed guiding for a pause on rates in the near termThis month only strengthens our confidence that 2023 will be a standout year for both precious metals and base metals and encourage investors to position themselves accordingly Gold rose 7.2% in the month to $1,969.7/oz, silver rose 14.5% to $24.0/oz, and copper sat flat, down just 1.8% to $4.10/lb.

United Kingdom

Rio Tinto is a leading British-Australian multinational mining and metals company that specializes in the exploration, mining, and processing of mineral resources. Its core products include iron ore, copper, aluminum, and lithium. The company was founded in 1873 and is headquartered in London, England.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Rio Tinto (RIO LN)

Year-End Rally Underway; Many Bullish Reversals/False Breakdowns; Buys: Tech, Cons. Disc., RE, Steel

There is significant evidence that global equities $ACWI have bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. It all started when we discussed that the...

Vermilion Research

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (24 Aug 2026)

Discover seven pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Australia: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (21 Aug 2026)

Discover four pair trade opportunities across four sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Rio Tinto (RIO AU) Vs BHP (BHP AU): Pair Trade Opportunity as Ratio Breaches Two Sigma

The RIO/BHP price ratio has breached two standard deviations from its one-year mean, presenting a potential mean-reversion setup for traders...

Gaudenz Schneider

Mining Monthly: March Edition

he precious metals and mining market significantly outperformed broader indices in the month of March with the GDX rising 15% versus the TSX being...

Atrium Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Year-End Rally Underway; Many Bullish Reversals/False Breakdowns; Buys: Tech, Cons. Disc., RE, Steel

There is significant evidence that global equities $ACWI have bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. It all started when we discussed that the...

Vermilion Research

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (24 Aug 2026)

​Discover seven pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Australia: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (21 Aug 2026)

​Discover four pair trade opportunities across four sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Rio Tinto (RIO AU) Vs BHP (BHP AU): Pair Trade Opportunity as Ratio Breaches Two Sigma

The RIO/BHP price ratio has breached two standard deviations from its one-year mean, presenting a potential mean-reversion setup for traders...

Gaudenz Schneider

Mining Monthly: March Edition

he precious metals and mining market significantly outperformed broader indices in the month of March with the GDX rising 15% versus the TSX being...

Atrium Research

Discover seven pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Discover four pair trade opportunities across four sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.