Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

Credit

<ul>
<li>BHP and Rio Tinto maintained leverage below 1.0x net debt-to-EBITDA, supporting tighter spreads, refinancing flexibility and stronger valuation resilience despite fragmented commodity conditions.</li>
<li>Anglo American traded more as a restructuring story during 2024–2025, with 1.3x leverage, wider spreads and execution concerns outweighing relatively supported copper exposure.</li>
<li>Credit spread stability and refinancing resilience now differentiate diversified miners as lithium and nickel weakness offset stronger copper performance across fragmented commodity cycles.</li>
</ul>


BHP and Rio Tinto maintained leverage below 1.0x net debt-to-EBITDA, supporting tighter spreads, refinancing flexibility and stronger valuation resilience despite fragmented commodity conditions.
Anglo American traded more as a restructuring story during 2024–2025, with 1.3x leverage, wider spreads and execution concerns outweighing relatively supported copper exposure.
Credit spread stability and refinancing resilience now differentiate diversified miners as lithium and nickel weakness offset stronger copper performance across fragmented commodity cycles.


Diversified Mining: Balance Sheet Alpha Over Commodity Beta

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

We believe the secular mobile payments theme has room to run, and we expect related stocks to continue outperforming... see pages 2-4 for actionable stocks. We reiterate our overweight metals and mining.. see pages 5 and 9-12 for actionable stocks. Though lagging across many global markets, Utilities are particularly attractive in Europe and Japan... see pages 6 and 13-17 for actionable stocks.

We believe the secular mobile payments theme has room to run, and we expect related stocks to continue outperforming... see pages 2-4 for actionable stocks. We reiterate our overweight metals and mining.. see pages 5 and 9-12 for actionable stocks. Though lagging across many global markets, Utilities are particularly attractive in Europe and Japan... see pages 6 and 13-17 for actionable stocks.

Global Strategy: Opportunities Within Mobile Payments, Metals & Mining, and Utilities

<ul><li>Global mining stocks offer an attractive, mid-cycle pullback opportunity. From steel to copper and aluminum stocks, retracements over the past three months have stabilized at support, which we view as timely entry points that will lead to upside resumptions.  This report highlights actionable charts, sorted by market capitalization.</li></ul>

Global mining stocks offer an attractive, mid-cycle pullback opportunity. From steel to copper and aluminum stocks, retracements over the past three months have stabilized at support, which we view as timely entry points that will lead to upside resumptions.  This report highlights actionable charts, sorted by market capitalization.

Pullback Opportunities in Global Metals & Mining Stocks

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Dispersion persists across European holdcos, with discounts anchored by structure and governance rather than valuation. Convergence remains selective and catalyst-driven, not a broad-based re-rating.</li>
<li>Event-Driven asymmetry remains concentrated, with Vivendi offering legal-driven optionality and Rio conditional on strategic pressure, while most structures trade within stable equilibrium ranges.</li>
<li>Elsewhere, discounts reflect steady-state positioning, with GBL tightening on execution, Porsche stable at structural levels, and Nordic holdcos trading near parity as quality proxies.</li>
</ul>


Dispersion persists across European holdcos, with discounts anchored by structure and governance rather than valuation. Convergence remains selective and catalyst-driven, not a broad-based re-rating.
Event-Driven asymmetry remains concentrated, with Vivendi offering legal-driven optionality and Rio conditional on strategic pressure, while most structures trade within stable equilibrium ranges.
Elsewhere, discounts reflect steady-state positioning, with GBL tightening on execution, Porsche stable at structural levels, and Nordic holdcos trading near parity as quality proxies.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: April 2026 Report

Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

LR Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today's issue:Off-balance sheet EU, TPP farce, Singles day bonanza, How Netflix works, hedge funds should be more conventional, eSports, peripheral Europe strength, Neural Networks for forecasting inflation, Latin Allocation, and Trump.<div class="content-highlight">1.  A TPP farce.  As we noted in 21 Things on Friday, the Canadian contingent had denied the comments from Shinzo Abe that a TPP agreement had been reached in principle.  According to sources, a side meeting at the APEC summit in Vietnam between Canada and…</div>

In today's issue:Off-balance sheet EU, TPP farce, Singles day bonanza, How Netflix works, hedge funds should be more conventional, eSports, peripheral Europe strength, Neural Networks for forecasting inflation, Latin Allocation, and Trump.1.  A TPP farce.  As we noted in 21 Things on Friday, the Canadian contingent had denied the comments from Shinzo Abe that a TPP agreement had been reached in principle.  According to sources, a side meeting at the APEC summit in Vietnam between Canada and…

United Kingdom

Rio Tinto is a leading British-Australian multinational mining and metals company that specializes in the exploration, mining, and processing of mineral resources. Its core products include iron ore, copper, aluminum, and lithium. The company was founded in 1873 and is headquartered in London, England.

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Rio Tinto (RIO LN)

Diversified Mining: Balance Sheet Alpha Over Commodity Beta

Fragmented commodity cycles increasingly reward balance-sheet resilience over commodity beta, with credit spreads now differentiating diversified...

Duncan Chan

Global Strategy: Opportunities Within Mobile Payments, Metals & Mining, and Utilities

We believe the secular mobile payments theme has room to run, and we expect related stocks to continue outperforming... see pages 2-4 for...

Vermilion Research

Pullback Opportunities in Global Metals & Mining Stocks

Global mining stocks offer an attractive, mid-cycle pullback opportunity. From steel to copper and aluminum stocks, retracements over the past...

Vermilion Research

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: April 2026 Report

European holdcos remain dispersed: Vivendi at deep discount, Rio offers conditional optionality, while most trade near equilibrium. Convergence...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

21 Things Worth Knowing (#13)

In today's issue:Off-balance sheet EU, TPP farce, Singles day bonanza, How Netflix works, hedge funds should be more conventional, eSports,...

Mark Artherton

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