Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-unilever-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13828:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN)</a>'s strong quarterly performance was overshadowed by a proposed hike in royalty payments to parent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unilever-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22197:1" rel="noopener">Unilever PLC (ULVR LN)</a> </li>
<li>HUVR's historical royalty growth has been below revenue and PBT growth and hence does not generate any red flags in terms of minority shareholder protection.  </li>
<li>While the impact on EPS is ~3%, we believe much of the reaction around HUVR's Royalty is Noise. </li>
</ul>



Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN)'s strong quarterly performance was overshadowed by a proposed hike in royalty payments to parent Unilever PLC (ULVR LN) 
HUVR's historical royalty growth has been below revenue and PBT growth and hence does not generate any red flags in terms of minority shareholder protection.  
While the impact on EPS is ~3%, we believe much of the reaction around HUVR's Royalty is Noise. 


Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN) | Royalty Rukus

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

<ul>
<li>Recent and pending supply-chain deforestation regulations represent a new and ever-growing source of transition risks – financially-material risks with far-reaching ramifications.</li>
<li>Significant developments regarding the European Union's pending forest-risk commodity laws (e.g., inclusion of natural rubber, addition of banks to its purview) inspired this Insight.</li>
<li>This Insight briefly summarises EU and U.K. deforestation regulations, then analyses potential risks and implications for issuers involved in related forest-risk commodity supply chains.</li>
</ul>


Recent and pending supply-chain deforestation regulations represent a new and ever-growing source of transition risks – financially-material risks with far-reaching ramifications.
Significant developments regarding the European Union's pending forest-risk commodity laws (e.g., inclusion of natural rubber, addition of banks to its purview) inspired this Insight.
This Insight briefly summarises EU and U.K. deforestation regulations, then analyses potential risks and implications for issuers involved in related forest-risk commodity supply chains.


Supply-Chain Deforestation Laws as a New and Growing Source of Transition Risk

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The index changes for DAX, MDAX, SDAX, and TecDAX were announced yesterday.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beiersdorf-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21588:1" rel="noopener">Beiersdorf AG (BEI GR)</a> will move from MDAX to DAX while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delivery-hero-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24416:1" rel="noopener">Delivery Hero SE (DHER GR)</a> will move from DAX to MDAX.</li>
<li>Below is a closer look at the excess volume expectations and historical price and volume performance of the names involved in this Rebalance Event.</li>
</ul>


The index changes for DAX, MDAX, SDAX, and TecDAX were announced yesterday.

Beiersdorf AG (BEI GR) will move from MDAX to DAX while Delivery Hero SE (DHER GR) will move from DAX to MDAX.
Below is a closer look at the excess volume expectations and historical price and volume performance of the names involved in this Rebalance Event.


DAX, MDAX, SDAX, TecDAX June 2022 Rebalance: Encavis & Hensoldt Top Positives; Hypoport Top Negative

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>GSK has rejected Unilever's approaches (last at £50 billion) but leaked it would be ready to accept an offer around £60 billion (a whopping c. 65% of Unilever's market capitalisation).</li>
<li>The deal would be transformational and Unilever's management see it as the way forward to revive the company's performance and the share price.</li>
<li>
Ballsy, but doable, with a positive impact on results from FY2024, but negative impact on leverage at 4.9x. I believe that Unilever may make a further approach.</li>
</ul>


GSK has rejected Unilever's approaches (last at £50 billion) but leaked it would be ready to accept an offer around £60 billion (a whopping c. 65% of Unilever's market capitalisation).
The deal would be transformational and Unilever's management see it as the way forward to revive the company's performance and the share price.

Ballsy, but doable, with a positive impact on results from FY2024, but negative impact on leverage at 4.9x. I believe that Unilever may make a further approach.


Unilever/GSK Heathcare: Ballsy, but Doable

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

It all started with the injury that Chen, the top female badminton player, suffered during China National Games two weeks ago that went viral and fans took it to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weibo-corp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3826:1" rel="noopener">Weibo Corp (WB US)</a> . It is unlikely that the injured toe will cause a massive product recall as it is not a life-threatening injury but it definitely warrants some further investigation by the R&amp;D team that may lead to either an increase of R&amp;D cost, an increase in the COGS that will decrease GPM or extra marketing costs as part of giving players more shoes to prevent injuries. 
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/231/932/original/image?1632657827" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="231932"></figure>

It all started with the injury that Chen, the top female badminton player, suffered during China National Games two weeks ago that went viral and fans took it to Weibo Corp (WB US) . It is unlikely that the injured toe will cause a massive product recall as it is not a life-threatening injury but it definitely warrants some further investigation by the R&amp;D team that may lead to either an increase of R&amp;D cost, an increase in the COGS that will decrease GPM or extra marketing costs as part of giving players more shoes to prevent injuries. 


United Kingdom

Unilever is a British multinational consumer goods company that manufactures and sells a wide range of products including foods, beverages, cleaning agents, and personal care items. It operates through distinct business groups focusing on Beauty & Wellbeing, Personal Care, Home Care, and Nutrition. The company is headquartered in London, England, and was founded in 1929.

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Unilever (ULVR LN)

Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN) | Royalty Rukus

The Rukus around Hindustan Unilever Limited's increase in royalty payments to its parent Unilever appears to be just Noise.

Pranav Bhavsar

Supply-Chain Deforestation Laws as a New and Growing Source of Transition Risk

New deforestation and forest-risk commodity regulations are poppoing up around the world, and they are unlike any prior climate regulations. Big...

Kyle Rudden

DAX, MDAX, SDAX, TecDAX June 2022 Rebalance: Encavis & Hensoldt Top Positives; Hypoport Top Negative

A discussion on June 2022 index changes for DAX, MDAX, SDAX, and TecDAX. Enclavis and Hensoldt are names with highest positive impacts and Hypoport...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Unilever/GSK Heathcare: Ballsy, but Doable

I believe that a new £60 billion attempt by Unilever is not to be ruled out completely. It is a high price tag, but Unilever could finance the deal.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Li Ning (2331): Toe Injury

The injured toe will lead to either an increase in R&D cost, an increase in the COGS that will decrease GPM or extra marketing costs as part of...

Henry Soediarko

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