Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Credit

<ul>
<li>This flash note is an update for our readers on the indicative probability of default for Energy Absolute Public Company Limited (EA).</li>
<li>We plotted EA’s probability of default, using Criat’s iRAP Global Plus PD Toolkit (iRap), against its peers, and we believe the chart indicated a high probability of default still.</li>
<li>Given a lack of reliable bond quotes in the THB bond market, we continue to issue our report on EA without a recommendation.</li>
</ul>


This flash note is an update for our readers on the indicative probability of default for Energy Absolute Public Company Limited (EA).
We plotted EA’s probability of default, using Criat’s iRAP Global Plus PD Toolkit (iRap), against its peers, and we believe the chart indicated a high probability of default still.
Given a lack of reliable bond quotes in the THB bond market, we continue to issue our report on EA without a recommendation.


Energy Absolute: Trying to Be a B+ Credit

<ul>
<li>The EA 248A bond meeting on 9-August produced a consent from bondholders to extend the maturity as per the company’s request.</li>
<li>EA’s CFO announced that the company has secured 3-year credit facilities from 9 financial institutions and Asset Plus Securities Fund Management.</li>
<li>Barring any further negative news , we believe the maturity extension and the long-term bank credit facilities could lead TRIS to at least reverse EA’s credit rating outlook.</li>
</ul>


The EA 248A bond meeting on 9-August produced a consent from bondholders to extend the maturity as per the company’s request.
EA’s CFO announced that the company has secured 3-year credit facilities from 9 financial institutions and Asset Plus Securities Fund Management.
Barring any further negative news , we believe the maturity extension and the long-term bank credit facilities could lead TRIS to at least reverse EA’s credit rating outlook.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> is proposing to take 64.67%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sermsuk-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15918:1" rel="noopener">Sermsuk PCL (SSC TB)</a>  private by way of a voluntary Delisting Offer.</li>
<li>T<a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Tender_Offer_SSC_Shares.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=808724" target="_blank" rel="noopener">he Offer price is THB 63/share</a>, a 27.9% premium to last close.</li>
<li>This Delisting Offer requires a Scheme-like shareholder vote. Payment may occur late 4Q24. This is an illiquid arb.</li>
</ul>



Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) is proposing to take 64.67%-held Sermsuk PCL (SSC TB)  private by way of a voluntary Delisting Offer.
The Offer price is THB 63/share, a 27.9% premium to last close.
This Delisting Offer requires a Scheme-like shareholder vote. Payment may occur late 4Q24. This is an illiquid arb.


Sermsuk (SSC TB): THBEV's Delisting Offer

<ul>
<li>The recent share price pullback sees <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ptt-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:197:1" rel="noopener">PTT PCL (PTT TB)</a> trading below its long-term averages, and with respect to peers. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on PTT are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


The recent share price pullback sees PTT PCL (PTT TB) trading below its long-term averages, and with respect to peers. 
Preceding my comments on PTT are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


<ul>
<li>Back on the 10th March, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> launched a Delisting Offer for 79.66%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oishi-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17370:1" rel="noopener">Oishi Group (OISHI TB)</a>, at THB 59/share, a 26.9% premium to last close. </li>
<li>This two-step Offer required a shareholder vote followed by a tendering process. Yesterday (the 3rd May), Oishi shareholders approved the Delisting Offer. </li>
<li>The tendering period may kick off around this time next month, with an expected payment late August. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 10th March, Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) launched a Delisting Offer for 79.66%-held Oishi Group (OISHI TB), at THB 59/share, a 26.9% premium to last close. 
This two-step Offer required a shareholder vote followed by a tendering process. Yesterday (the 3rd May), Oishi shareholders approved the Delisting Offer. 
The tendering period may kick off around this time next month, with an expected payment late August. 


Oishi Group: Shareholders Back ThaiBev’s Offer

Thailand

Global Power Synergy Public Company Limited is a utility company that primarily engages in the production and distribution of electricity, steam, and industrial water to government and industrial customers. The company also focuses on developing sustainable businesses through renewable energy resources and cutting-edge technologies, including energy storage systems and batteries for electric vehicles. It was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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Global Power Synergy (GPSC TB)

Energy Absolute: Trying to Be a B+ Credit

Update on Energy Absolute 's probability of default shows high risk compared to peers using iRAP Global Plus PD Toolkit. No recommendation due to...

Bondcritic

Energy Absolute: Band Aid Secured

We believe EA's near-term liquidity crunch is nearly over. Barring further negative news, the maturity extension and the bank credit facilities...

Bondcritic

Sermsuk (SSC TB): THBEV's Delisting Offer

This is done. The Offer Price is fair. Assuming completion early January 2025, I'd buy around THB 58.50, a 7% gross spread, or 15% annualised.

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: PTT Public Is Trading Cheap

I'd look to buy PTT outright; or hedge 40% with PTTEP (worth 36% of NAV); 15% of PTT Oil (worth 14% of NAV), together with O&G names to short.

David Blennerhassett

Oishi Group: Shareholders Back ThaiBev’s Offer

The Offer for Oishi has closed with ThaiBev holding 98.5%. Despite the odd 5.9% gain yesterday, Oishi's IR has confirmed that i) shares are...

David Blennerhassett

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Energy Absolute: Trying to Be a B+ Credit

​Update on Energy Absolute 's probability of default shows high risk compared to peers using iRAP Global Plus PD Toolkit. No recommendation due to...

Bondcritic

Energy Absolute: Band Aid Secured

We believe EA's near-term liquidity crunch is nearly over. Barring further negative news, the maturity extension and the bank credit facilities...

Bondcritic

Sermsuk (SSC TB): THBEV's Delisting Offer

This is done. The Offer Price is fair. Assuming completion early January 2025, I'd buy around THB 58.50, a 7% gross spread, or 15% annualised.

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: PTT Public Is Trading Cheap

I'd look to buy PTT outright; or hedge 40% with PTTEP (worth 36% of NAV); 15% of PTT Oil (worth 14% of NAV), together with O&G names to short.

David Blennerhassett

Oishi Group: Shareholders Back ThaiBev’s Offer

The Offer for Oishi has closed with ThaiBev holding 98.5%. Despite the odd 5.9% gain yesterday, Oishi's IR has confirmed that i) shares are...

David Blennerhassett

Update on Energy Absolute 's probability of default shows high risk compared to peers using iRAP Global Plus PD Toolkit. No recommendation due to...