APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Having first introduced the three red line guidance in late 2020, the government has begun shifting its stance, and relaxing some of its regulatory oversight.</li>
<li>In this note, we looked at recent news developments and how some larger developers fared against the three red lines criterion.</li>
<li>Of the large developers we looked at, there are a few names which stand out which could potentially do a capital raising given their financial standing. </li>
</ul>


Having first introduced the three red line guidance in late 2020, the government has begun shifting its stance, and relaxing some of its regulatory oversight.
In this note, we looked at recent news developments and how some larger developers fared against the three red lines criterion.
Of the large developers we looked at, there are a few names which stand out which could potentially do a capital raising given their financial standing. 


Chinese Developers’ Overview - Shift in Sentiment but a Few Still Needs Some Equity

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

Greentown Service Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Greentown Service held a reverse roadshow to analysts recently and shared its progress on FY23 target which we think is slower than expected with regard to core operating profit that estimated to grow at &lt;=20% level in 1H23 and imposed certain pressure in 2H23 to catch up FY23 target of 20-25% YoY growth.</li><li>It is also worth noting that the Company achieved a YoY decrease in administration expense, and operating cash flow is likely to reach a breakeven in 1H23.</li><li>We think the Company still has a chance to complete its full year target if the economy recovers faster than 1H23, and the Company can benefit from its fee collection and VAS business.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Greentown Service held a reverse roadshow to analysts recently and shared its progress on FY23 target which we think is slower than expected with regard to core operating profit that estimated to grow at &lt;=20% level in 1H23 and imposed certain pressure in 2H23 to catch up FY23 target of 20-25% YoY growth.It is also worth noting that the Company achieved a YoY decrease in administration expense, and operating cash flow is likely to reach a breakeven in 1H23.We think the Company still has a chance to complete its full year target if the economy recovers faster than 1H23, and the Company can benefit from its fee collection and VAS business.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Greentown Service (2869 HK) – Differentiation Leads to Long-Term Value

<ul><li>In line with profit alert, Greentown Service reported still strong top line growth at 18% YoY in FY22, thanks to its cooperation with Cinda Yue Life and strong thirdparty expansion.</li><li>However, the GPM has been impacted due to COVID and mix shift, thus dragging down core EBIT to -9% and NP -35% YoY.</li><li>We expect the company to gradually recover in 2023 with 15% YoY NP growth because 1) its high brand quality would accelerate in the expansion of existing home market (30% of overall GFA expansion) during post-period era.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In line with profit alert, Greentown Service reported still strong top line growth at 18% YoY in FY22, thanks to its cooperation with Cinda Yue Life and strong thirdparty expansion.However, the GPM has been impacted due to COVID and mix shift, thus dragging down core EBIT to -9% and NP -35% YoY.We expect the company to gradually recover in 2023 with 15% YoY NP growth because 1) its high brand quality would accelerate in the expansion of existing home market (30% of overall GFA expansion) during post-period era.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Greentown Service (2869 HK) – High brand quality to boost its 2023 recovery

<ul><li>The Company’s profit alert of 5-10% core net profit decline in 2022E was roughly in-line with the market expectation in consideration of a flat 1H22 and the even weaker macro during 2H22.</li><li>Core net margin lowered to 7% in 2022E from 9% in 2021 mainly due to GPM contraction to a range of 16-17% (est.).</li><li>While we think the margin will be gradually recovered by 1) resuming consumption that leads to recovery in community VAS such as housing brokerage, education services etc.; 2) higher proportion of commercial projects in managed GFA going forward as Company is putting more efforts on commercial projects expansion; and 3) less impairment among better macro environment. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Company’s profit alert of 5-10% core net profit decline in 2022E was roughly in-line with the market expectation in consideration of a flat 1H22 and the even weaker macro during 2H22.Core net margin lowered to 7% in 2022E from 9% in 2021 mainly due to GPM contraction to a range of 16-17% (est.).While we think the margin will be gradually recovered by 1) resuming consumption that leads to recovery in community VAS such as housing brokerage, education services etc.; 2) higher proportion of commercial projects in managed GFA going forward as Company is putting more efforts on commercial projects expansion; and 3) less impairment among better macro environment. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Greentown Service (2869 HK) – Profit alert roughly in-line

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jinke-smart-services-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29214:1" rel="noopener">Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK)</a>’s VGO from Boyu Capital at HK$12.00 per share has been declared unconditional. Boyu has waived the 7.71% valid acceptances condition. </li>
<li>Boyu has likely two aims for the unusual VGO – secure anti-trust approval and a re-rating by becoming the largest shareholder. Anti-trust approval was received on 8 November.  </li>
<li>Acceptances of 0.0081% of outstanding shares reflect the unattractive offer. The final closing date is 22 November. At the last close price, the spread to the offer is 2.7%. </li>
</ul>



Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK)’s VGO from Boyu Capital at HK$12.00 per share has been declared unconditional. Boyu has waived the 7.71% valid acceptances condition. 
Boyu has likely two aims for the unusual VGO – secure anti-trust approval and a re-rating by becoming the largest shareholder. Anti-trust approval was received on 8 November.  
Acceptances of 0.0081% of outstanding shares reflect the unattractive offer. The final closing date is 22 November. At the last close price, the spread to the offer is 2.7%. 


China

Greentown Service Group Co. Ltd. is a leading property management and services company. It provides comprehensive property management, community living, consulting, and technology services. The company was established in 1998 and is headquartered in Xihu District, Hangzhou, China.

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Greentown Service Group (2869 HK)

Chinese Developers’ Overview - Shift in Sentiment but a Few Still Needs Some Equity

Country Garden Holdings just launched a primary placement to raise US$300m, at a fixed 17.7% discount to last close. Proceeds will be used to repay...

Clarence Chu

Greentown Service (2869 HK) – Differentiation Leads to Long-Term Value

We think the Company still has a chance to complete its full year target if the economy recovers faster than 1H23, and the Company can benefit from...

CMB International

Greentown Service (2869 HK) – High brand quality to boost its 2023 recovery

In line with profit alert, Greentown Service reported still strong top line growth at 18% YoY in FY22, thanks to its cooperation with Cinda Yue...

CMB International

Greentown Service (2869 HK) – Profit alert roughly in-line

The Company’s profit alert of 5-10% core net profit decline in 2022E was roughly in-line with the market expectation in consideration of a flat...

CMB International

Jinke Smart (9666 HK) VGO Unconditional

Boyu has waived the 7.71% valid acceptances condition. The final closing date is 22 November. At the last close price, the spread to the offer is...

Arun George

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