Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) breaking below our $70 “line in the sand” support level we highlighted last week, we believe additional downside is likely and that the path of least resistance is lower for global equities. Considering the damage done to major indexes around the world, any potential bottom is likely to take months to develop and until we see evidence of this repair process we want to be positioned primarily in Sectors with defensive characteristics. Of course, there will be major countertrend rallies along the way, but for now the trend is lower and we would treat rallies as selling opportunities. We outline important technical levels across all markets and highlight actionable opportunities within EM, and the Services and Staples Sectors.

With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) breaking below our $70 “line in the sand” support level we highlighted last week, we believe additional downside is likely and that the path of least resistance is lower for global equities. Considering the damage done to major indexes around the world, any potential bottom is likely to take months to develop and until we see evidence of this repair process we want to be positioned primarily in Sectors with defensive characteristics. Of course, there will be major countertrend rallies along the way, but for now the trend is lower and we would treat rallies as selling opportunities. We outline important technical levels across all markets and highlight actionable opportunities within EM, and the Services and Staples Sectors.

ACWI Below Our Line In The Sand: Further Weakness Expected

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Last Friday, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiabuxiabu-catering-management-china-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:76:1" rel="noopener">Xiabuxiabu (520 HK)</a> share price rally screams for a deep value turnaround story. But is it really the case?</li>
<li>The management went through the painful "trim the fat" exercise last year to cope with the falling customer traffic. </li>
<li>The ultra-cheap valuation plus buyback program and the Chairman buying from the open market should force some sort of squeeze, pushing the share price up. </li>
</ul>


Last Friday, Xiabuxiabu (520 HK) share price rally screams for a deep value turnaround story. But is it really the case?
The management went through the painful "trim the fat" exercise last year to cope with the falling customer traffic. 
The ultra-cheap valuation plus buyback program and the Chairman buying from the open market should force some sort of squeeze, pushing the share price up. 


Xiabuxiabu (520): Out of the Money Call Option

YTD sideways congestion for the MSCI ACWI ex-US and an intact downtrend for the MSCI EM index continue to point to a risk-off environment for international equity markets, and supports our neutral outlook. We continue to recommend avoiding broad indexed exposure in favor of selectivity. In today’s report we highlight actionable country- and Sector-specific themes within Norway, India, Japan and Australia.

YTD sideways congestion for the MSCI ACWI ex-US and an intact downtrend for the MSCI EM index continue to point to a risk-off environment for international equity markets, and supports our neutral outlook. We continue to recommend avoiding broad indexed exposure in favor of selectivity. In today’s report we highlight actionable country- and Sector-specific themes within Norway, India, Japan and Australia.

Global Ex-U.S. & EM Continue to Point to Risk-Off Environment

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

The MSCI EM index has recovered over the last couple of weeks and is now approaching a logical resistance level. We reiterate: avoid broad EM exposure and be selective.  India’s S&amp;P BSE SENSEX is our top country-specific EM index recommendation, overweight India. We also provide an update on Brazil’s Bovespa, which has surged over the last month following a steep selloff. We are skeptical that the index will be able to continue its unabated advance.  Today’s report also includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

The MSCI EM index has recovered over the last couple of weeks and is now approaching a logical resistance level. We reiterate: avoid broad EM exposure and be selective.  India’s S&amp;P BSE SENSEX is our top country-specific EM index recommendation, overweight India. We also provide an update on Brazil’s Bovespa, which has surged over the last month following a steep selloff. We are skeptical that the index will be able to continue its unabated advance.  Today’s report also includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Approaching Resistance; India Breaking Out to New Highs -- Add Exposure

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Naturally healthy packaged food registered 9% retail value growth in 2017 to reach CNY62.6 billion.</li><li>Naturally healthy packaged food benefited from the snacking trend in 2017.</li><li>Naturally Healthy (NH) olive oil recorded the strongest retail value growth of 16% in 2017.</li><li>Bestore Food Co led naturally healthy packaged food in 2017 with a retail value share of 9%.</li><li>Naturally healthy packaged food is expected to record a retail value CAGR of 5% at constant 2017 prices over the forecast period to reach CNY78.5 billion in 2022.</li></ul>

Naturally healthy packaged food registered 9% retail value growth in 2017 to reach CNY62.6 billion.Naturally healthy packaged food benefited from the snacking trend in 2017.Naturally Healthy (NH) olive oil recorded the strongest retail value growth of 16% in 2017.Bestore Food Co led naturally healthy packaged food in 2017 with a retail value share of 9%.Naturally healthy packaged food is expected to record a retail value CAGR of 5% at constant 2017 prices over the forecast period to reach CNY78.5 billion in 2022.

Sector Capsule: Naturally Healthy Packaged Food in China

China

Yihai International Holding Ltd. is primarily engaged in the research, development, manufacturing, distribution, and sales of compound condiments. The company's key products include hot pot soup flavorings, hot pot dipping sauces, chicken essence, Chinese-style compound condiments, and convenient ready-to-eat food products like self-serving small hot pots and instant rice. These products are sold under brands such as Haidilao and Magic Cook. The company is headquartered in Shanghai, China, and was founded in 2005.

Price Gauge
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Yihai International (1579 HK)

ACWI Below Our Line In The Sand: Further Weakness Expected

With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) breaking below our $70 “line in the sand” support level we highlighted last week, we believe additional downside is...

Vermilion Research

Xiabuxiabu (520): Out of the Money Call Option

Xiabuxiabu (520 HK) share price rally suggests a potential deep value turnaround, but is cost-cutting measures enough? Investors should treat this...

Henry Soediarko

Global Ex-U.S. & EM Continue to Point to Risk-Off Environment

YTD sideways congestion for the MSCI ACWI ex-US and an intact downtrend for the MSCI EM index continue to point to a risk-off environment for...

Vermilion Research

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Approaching Resistance; India Breaking Out to New Highs -- Add Exposure

The MSCI EM index has recovered over the last couple of weeks and is now approaching a logical resistance level. We reiterate: avoid broad EM...

Vermilion Research

Sector Capsule: Naturally Healthy Packaged Food in China

Naturally healthy packaged food registered 9% retail value growth in 2017 to reach CNY62.6 billion. Naturally healthy packaged food benefited from...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

ACWI Below Our Line In The Sand: Further Weakness Expected

With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) breaking below our $70 “line in the sand” support level we highlighted last week, we believe additional downside is...

Vermilion Research

Xiabuxiabu (520): Out of the Money Call Option

​Xiabuxiabu (520 HK) share price rally suggests a potential deep value turnaround, but is cost-cutting measures enough? Investors should treat this...

Henry Soediarko

Global Ex-U.S. & EM Continue to Point to Risk-Off Environment

YTD sideways congestion for the MSCI ACWI ex-US and an intact downtrend for the MSCI EM index continue to point to a risk-off environment for...

Vermilion Research

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Approaching Resistance; India Breaking Out to New Highs -- Add Exposure

The MSCI EM index has recovered over the last couple of weeks and is now approaching a logical resistance level. We reiterate: avoid broad EM...

Vermilion Research

Sector Capsule: Naturally Healthy Packaged Food in China

Naturally healthy packaged food registered 9% retail value growth in 2017 to reach CNY62.6 billion. Naturally healthy packaged food benefited from...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Xiabuxiabu (520 HK) share price rally suggests a potential deep value turnaround, but is cost-cutting measures enough? Investors should treat this...