Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc. </li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND flows were small positive and NORTHBOUND flows a decent buy. AH premia stopped rising. Chinese shares bounced. SOEs being bought. Tech being sold. Tencent seeing SB outflows, still. </li>
<li>New article in China Securities Journal hints at new measures on SOEs. Watch this space. Wouldn't be short SOEs vs Privates on H/A basis. </li>
</ul>


The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc. 
SOUTHBOUND flows were small positive and NORTHBOUND flows a decent buy. AH premia stopped rising. Chinese shares bounced. SOEs being bought. Tech being sold. Tencent seeing SB outflows, still. 
New article in China Securities Journal hints at new measures on SOEs. Watch this space. Wouldn't be short SOEs vs Privates on H/A basis. 


A/H Premium Tracker (To 26 Jan 2024):  AH Premia Still Near Multi-Yr Wides, SOEs May See New Action

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Short notional in Hong Kong is HK$335bn and has been falling over the last 12 months due to a drop in the market.</li>
<li>In terms of short notional to marketcap, the Materials, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Utilities, Real Estate sectors are most shorted while the least shorted are Information Technology, Communication Services, Energy.</li>
<li>The largest shorts have been built on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc-4cc65854-d10c-4d20-bf7e-ca0e016715ff" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33772:1" rel="noopener">XPeng (9868)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrial-and-commercial-bank-of-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1119:1" rel="noopener">ICBC (1398)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi (1810)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:872:1" rel="noopener">Link REIT (823)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wharf-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:51:1" rel="noopener">Wharf Holdings (4)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Short notional in Hong Kong is HK$335bn and has been falling over the last 12 months due to a drop in the market.
In terms of short notional to marketcap, the Materials, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Utilities, Real Estate sectors are most shorted while the least shorted are Information Technology, Communication Services, Energy.
The largest shorts have been built on BYD (1211), XPeng (9868), ICBC (1398), Xiaomi (1810), Link REIT (823), JD.com (9618), Wharf Holdings (4) and New World Development (17). 


Hong Kong: Where Could Shorts Be Covered?

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 129.2% as of Jan 19th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 7.1ppt week-on-week, led by financials, materials, health care and offset by information technology.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Haier Smart H, ICBC, China Vanke, ZTE, China Rail Gr, China Com Cons, SMIC, China Longyuan.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 129.2% as of Jan 19th.
The average A-H premium changed by 7.1ppt week-on-week, led by financials, materials, health care and offset by information technology.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Haier Smart H, ICBC, China Vanke, ZTE, China Rail Gr, China Com Cons, SMIC, China Longyuan.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 19th): Haier Smart, ICBC, China Vanke, ZTE, CR Group, CCCC

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND flows showing momentum tendencies this past week on a single-stock basis, still. Hs gave up some ground vs As in Week One.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND saw HK$14.4bn of net IN-flows in the 4-day week to 5 Jan 2024. Total flows were HK$96bn.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND start the year by buying ETFs, high-div SOEs like China Mobile and CNOOC, coal names, and sports/consumer names.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND flows showing momentum tendencies this past week on a single-stock basis, still. Hs gave up some ground vs As in Week One.
SOUTHBOUND saw HK$14.4bn of net IN-flows in the 4-day week to 5 Jan 2024. Total flows were HK$96bn.
SOUTHBOUND start the year by buying ETFs, high-div SOEs like China Mobile and CNOOC, coal names, and sports/consumer names.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 5 Jan 2024); High Div SOEs Still Strongly Bought

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND flows showing momentum tendencies this past week on a single-stock basis. Hs up vs As quite strongly. Liquid Hs even better.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND saw HK$1.2bn of net IN-flows in the 3-day week to 29 Dec. Total flows were HK$88bn.</li>
<li>Bullish end to year for SOUTHBOUND owners but they did not mark the close. They were, however, big buyers of high-div SOEs.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND flows showing momentum tendencies this past week on a single-stock basis. Hs up vs As quite strongly. Liquid Hs even better.
SOUTHBOUND saw HK$1.2bn of net IN-flows in the 3-day week to 29 Dec. Total flows were HK$88bn.
Bullish end to year for SOUTHBOUND owners but they did not mark the close. They were, however, big buyers of high-div SOEs.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 29Dec23); CNOOC & Telcos to the BUY Side, Tracker Fund Sold Bigly

China

Postal Savings Bank of China Co., Ltd. provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, fund settlement, and other services. Postal Savings Bank of China provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

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Postal Savings Bank of China C (1658 HK)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 26 Jan 2024): AH Premia Still Near Multi-Yr Wides, SOEs May See New Action

AH Premia down slightly from multi-year wides a week ago. Chinese shares bounced in HK and mainland. SOEs still seeing SB inflow. Banks & SOEs NB...

Travis Lundy

Hong Kong: Where Could Shorts Be Covered?

HK Short notional HK$335bn and has been falling over the last year due to a drop in the market. There are stocks where shorts have risen over the...

Brian Freitas

A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 19th): Haier Smart, ICBC, China Vanke, ZTE, CR Group, CCCC

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Haier Smart H, ICBC, China Vanke, ZTE, China Rail Gr, China...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 5 Jan 2024); High Div SOEs Still Strongly Bought

Strong net buying in the first week of the year by SOUTHBOUND investors in HK Connect. Big buys in ETFs (they go back and forth every week), China...

Travis Lundy

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 29Dec23); CNOOC & Telcos to the BUY Side, Tracker Fund Sold Bigly

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows this week were light on a shortened 3-day week. High-div SOEs like Energy names and the large telcos were significantly...

Travis Lundy

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