FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

The abrupt turnaround in the AUD on Thursday may be indicative of a more erratic FX market this year.  But it may also reflect two big risks that continue to lurk in the background – increasing financial risk in China and financial stress emanating from the apartment sector in Australia.  The Australian employment data were also significantly weaker, fanning the concerns over under-employment expressed by the RBA in recent statements.  Commodity price indicators have been quite supportive for the AUD recently, but apartment sector financial stresses may now be on the footstep of the RBA before the economy has had time to work through the final phase of the mining investment downturn.  Australian banks’ are not too heavily exposed to apartment sector problems, but they have tightened credit to the sector.  Much less is known about property developers, but they are thought to be highly leveraged and facing significant headwinds.  They may prove to be a significant drag on activity and confidence and force the RBA to ease policy more than expected in coming months.  The New Zealand property market will not be immune with their banks also tightening credit under orders from head offices in Australia and tough new macroprudential measures introduced since October.

The abrupt turnaround in the AUD on Thursday may be indicative of a more erratic FX market this year.  But it may also reflect two big risks that continue to lurk in the background – increasing financial risk in China and financial stress emanating from the apartment sector in Australia.  The Australian employment data were also significantly weaker, fanning the concerns over under-employment expressed by the RBA in recent statements.  Commodity price indicators have been quite supportive for the AUD recently, but apartment sector financial stresses may now be on the footstep of the RBA before the economy has had time to work through the final phase of the mining investment downturn.  Australian banks’ are not too heavily exposed to apartment sector problems, but they have tightened credit to the sector.  Much less is known about property developers, but they are thought to be highly leveraged and facing significant headwinds.  They may prove to be a significant drag on activity and confidence and force the RBA to ease policy more than expected in coming months.  The New Zealand property market will not be immune with their banks also tightening credit under orders from head offices in Australia and tough new macroprudential measures introduced since October.

Apartment Glut Fears May Have Hit the AUD and NZD

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Equity Bottom-Up

Goodman Group’s reported fiscal 2016 earnings of AUD 40.1 cents per security, was in line with  our forecast and represented growth of 7.8% on the prior year. This is the sixth year running where Goodman has achieved annual EPS growth of 6% to 8% and management are forecasting this to continue, guiding for fiscal 2017 EPS of AUD 42.5 cents, representing growth of 6.0%. Distributions will rise in step, with the guided distribution of AUD 24.5 cents per security (based on a 60% payout ratio) representing a yield of 3.3% at current levels.The substantial yield premium on high-quality industrial property to bonds is a key factor behind strong institutional demand for Goodman-developed product. With an outlook for interest rates to reach exceptionally low levels, we expect sustained institutional demand for industrial property.Analyst: Tony Sherlock

Goodman Group’s reported fiscal 2016 earnings of AUD 40.1 cents per security, was in line with  our forecast and represented growth of 7.8% on the prior year. This is the sixth year running where Goodman has achieved annual EPS growth of 6% to 8% and management are forecasting this to continue, guiding for fiscal 2017 EPS of AUD 42.5 cents, representing growth of 6.0%. Distributions will rise in step, with the guided distribution of AUD 24.5 cents per security (based on a 60% payout ratio) representing a yield of 3.3% at current levels.The substantial yield premium on high-quality industrial property to bonds is a key factor behind strong institutional demand for Goodman-developed product. With an outlook for interest rates to reach exceptionally low levels, we expect sustained institutional demand for industrial property.Analyst: Tony Sherlock

Growing Institutional Demand for Industrial Assets Underpins Our Outlook for Strong Earnings Growth

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Equity Capital Markets

Propertylink Group / Equity Capital Markets

Propertylink (PHL), an Australia-based real estate group, is looking to raise about A$500m. PHL is an internally managed real estate company that owns, manages and co-invests in industrial and logistics properties in Australia.In this insight, we compare the company with its peers, recently listed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22748" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22748:1">Frasers Logistics &amp; Industrial (FLT SP)</a>  and with ASX listed IDR and TIX. We have some concerns about some of the company's directors background. Last but not the least we examine its valuation against its peers.  Please read this insight in conjunction with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4">Sumeet Singh</a>'s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/frasers-logistics-ipo-reasonable-valuation-but-decade-low-cap-rates-remain-a-worry" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:4093">Frasers Logistics IPO - Reasonable Valuation but Decade Low Cap Rates Remain a Worry</a>.

Propertylink (PHL), an Australia-based real estate group, is looking to raise about A$500m. PHL is an internally managed real estate company that owns, manages and co-invests in industrial and logistics properties in Australia.In this insight, we compare the company with its peers, recently listed Frasers Logistics &amp; Industrial (FLT SP)  and with ASX listed IDR and TIX. We have some concerns about some of the company's directors background. Last but not the least we examine its valuation against its peers.  Please read this insight in conjunction with Sumeet Singh's Frasers Logistics IPO - Reasonable Valuation but Decade Low Cap Rates Remain a Worry.

Propertylink IPO: Decent Yield Comes with Quality Concerns

Australia

Propertylink provides real estate services. The Company offers property management, project development, and investment management for logistics, technology parks, warehousing, commercial offices, and industrial sectors. Propertylink operates throughout Australia.

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Propertylink Group (1909266D AU)

Apartment Glut Fears May Have Hit the AUD and NZD

The abrupt turnaround in the AUD on Thursday may be indicative of a more erratic FX market this year. But it may also reflect two big risks that...

Greg Gibbs

Growing Institutional Demand for Industrial Assets Underpins Our Outlook for Strong Earnings Growth

Goodman Group’s reported fiscal 2016 earnings of AUD 40.1 cents per security, was in line with our forecast and represented growth of 7.8% on the...

Morningstar, Inc.

Propertylink IPO: Decent Yield Comes with Quality Concerns

Propertylink (PHL), an Australia-based real estate group, is looking to raise about A$500m. PHL is an internally managed real estate company that...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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