Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>A quick look at the tactical forecast models for some key markets impacted by the Israeli attack to Iran on June 13th.</li>
<li>We analyze: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crude-oil" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22869:1" rel="noopener">Crude Oil Futures (CL1 COM COMDTY)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold Futures (GOLD COMDTY)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> </li>
<li>Keep in mind that high volatility can push easily a market into the model's tails, and forecasts in tails area rely on less data (i.e. less accurate). </li>
</ul>


A quick look at the tactical forecast models for some key markets impacted by the Israeli attack to Iran on June 13th.
We analyze: Crude Oil Futures (CL1 COM COMDTY) , Gold Futures (GOLD COMDTY) , Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) , Nikkei 225 Index, Hang Seng Index and NIFTY Index 
Keep in mind that high volatility can push easily a market into the model's tails, and forecasts in tails area rely on less data (i.e. less accurate). 


Key Markets Tactical Outlooks After Israel Strike on Iran

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 06/Jun, U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.6m barrels (vs. expectations of a 2.4m barrel decline). Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected.</li>
<li>The EIA reported a 109 Bcf storage build, while analysts forecasted a 108 Bcf increase. Storage levels are 5.4% above the five-year average but 8.6% below year-ago levels.</li>
<li>Shell targets 12 MMT of new LNG capacity by 2030, while TotalEnergies partners with Mistral AI to enhance its low-carbon, multi-energy strategy using artificial intelligence.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 06/Jun, U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.6m barrels (vs. expectations of a 2.4m barrel decline). Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected.
The EIA reported a 109 Bcf storage build, while analysts forecasted a 108 Bcf increase. Storage levels are 5.4% above the five-year average but 8.6% below year-ago levels.
Shell targets 12 MMT of new LNG capacity by 2030, while TotalEnergies partners with Mistral AI to enhance its low-carbon, multi-energy strategy using artificial intelligence.


[ETP 2025/24] WTI Rises on Trade Hopes, Geopolitics; Henry Hub Slips on Weak Near-Term Outlook

<ul>
<li>WTI futures rose 6.2% for the week ending 06/Jun, as supply disruption fears and U.S.-China trade optimism outweighed concerns over the OPEC+ output hike.</li>
<li>The U.S. rig count fell by four to 559. The oil rig count fell by nine to 442, while gas rigs grew by five to 114.</li>
<li>WTI OI PCR remained at 0.83 on 06/Jun compared to 30/May. Call OI rose by 4.1% WoW, while put OI grew by 3.9%.</li>
</ul>


WTI futures rose 6.2% for the week ending 06/Jun, as supply disruption fears and U.S.-China trade optimism outweighed concerns over the OPEC+ output hike.
The U.S. rig count fell by four to 559. The oil rig count fell by nine to 442, while gas rigs grew by five to 114.
WTI OI PCR remained at 0.83 on 06/Jun compared to 30/May. Call OI rose by 4.1% WoW, while put OI grew by 3.9%.


[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/23] WTI Rebounded on Supply Risks and Trade Optimism

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 30/May, U.S. crude inventories fell by 4.3m barrels (vs. expectations of a 2.9m barrel decline). Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected.</li>
<li>The EIA reported a 122 Bcf storage build, while analysts forecasted a 111 Bcf increase. Storage levels are 4.7% above the five-year average but 10% below year-ago levels.</li>
<li>JPMorgan sees Reliance earnings rebounding on better margins; Saudi Aramco cuts Asia crude prices after OPEC+ supply hike.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 30/May, U.S. crude inventories fell by 4.3m barrels (vs. expectations of a 2.9m barrel decline). Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected.
The EIA reported a 122 Bcf storage build, while analysts forecasted a 111 Bcf increase. Storage levels are 4.7% above the five-year average but 10% below year-ago levels.
JPMorgan sees Reliance earnings rebounding on better margins; Saudi Aramco cuts Asia crude prices after OPEC+ supply hike.


[ETP 2025/23] WTI Rises on Supply Disruptions, Henry Hub Gains on Summer Demand Outlook

Global Commodities, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Global Commodities

<ul>
<li>Oil majors to extend voluntary production cuts with an eye to pushing crude oil prices to $100/barrel.</li>
<li>Demand for oil at record highs, fueled by strong travel, increased oil usage in power production &amp; solid Chinese petrochemicals activity.</li>
<li>Refiners are reaping near-record profits as their throughputs are set to reach a summer peak of 83.9m bpd in August.</li>
</ul>


Oil majors to extend voluntary production cuts with an eye to pushing crude oil prices to $100/barrel.
Demand for oil at record highs, fueled by strong travel, increased oil usage in power production &amp; solid Chinese petrochemicals activity.
Refiners are reaping near-record profits as their throughputs are set to reach a summer peak of 83.9m bpd in August.


Supply Tightness, Robust Demand Could Push Crude Oil Prices Into Triple Digit Territory

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Key Markets Tactical Outlooks After Israel Strike on Iran

Analysis of tactical forecast models for key markets impacted by Israeli attack on Iran. We analyze: Crude Oil, Gold, Nasdsaq100 Index, Nikkei...

Nico Rosti

[ETP 2025/24] WTI Rises on Trade Hopes, Geopolitics; Henry Hub Slips on Weak Near-Term Outlook

US crude inventories fell more than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose. Nat-gas storage levels are above 5-year average....

Mint Finance

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/23] WTI Rebounded on Supply Risks and Trade Optimism

WTI futures rose despite OPEC+ output hike concerns, U.S. rig count fell, and WTI OI PCR remained steady with call and put OI increasing.

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/23] WTI Rises on Supply Disruptions, Henry Hub Gains on Summer Demand Outlook

US crude inventories fell more than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose. EIA reports storage build slightly above forecast....

Mint Finance

Supply Tightness, Robust Demand Could Push Crude Oil Prices Into Triple Digit Territory

Oil prices surged nearly 3% to a fresh 10-month high yesterday, approaching $100/barrel, as Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported lower...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Key Markets Tactical Outlooks After Israel Strike on Iran

​Analysis of tactical forecast models for key markets impacted by Israeli attack on Iran. We analyze: Crude Oil, Gold, Nasdsaq100 Index, Nikkei...

Nico Rosti

[ETP 2025/24] WTI Rises on Trade Hopes, Geopolitics; Henry Hub Slips on Weak Near-Term Outlook

​US crude inventories fell more than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose. Nat-gas storage levels are above 5-year average....

Mint Finance

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/23] WTI Rebounded on Supply Risks and Trade Optimism

​WTI futures rose despite OPEC+ output hike concerns, U.S. rig count fell, and WTI OI PCR remained steady with call and put OI increasing.

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/23] WTI Rises on Supply Disruptions, Henry Hub Gains on Summer Demand Outlook

​US crude inventories fell more than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose. EIA reports storage build slightly above forecast....

Mint Finance

Supply Tightness, Robust Demand Could Push Crude Oil Prices Into Triple Digit Territory

Oil prices surged nearly 3% to a fresh 10-month high yesterday, approaching $100/barrel, as Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported lower...

Mint Finance

Analysis of tactical forecast models for key markets impacted by Israeli attack on Iran. We analyze: Crude Oil, Gold, Nasdsaq100 Index, Nikkei...

US crude inventories fell more than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose. Nat-gas storage levels are above 5-year average....

WTI futures rose despite OPEC+ output hike concerns, U.S. rig count fell, and WTI OI PCR remained steady with call and put OI increasing.

US crude inventories fell more than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose. EIA reports storage build slightly above forecast....