Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>This chart from Sentiment Trader highlights that also gold stocks are quite stretched - which isn’t a sell signal, as a stretched market can always become more stretched.</li><li>Note: We’re long the June contract of Gold since mid of March</li><li>Another interesting thought regarding gold demand going forward: if AI models really become more efficient and less data center usage is needed, demand for gold in tech could be affected as well.</li></ul>

This chart from Sentiment Trader highlights that also gold stocks are quite stretched - which isn’t a sell signal, as a stretched market can always become more stretched.Note: We’re long the June contract of Gold since mid of MarchAnother interesting thought regarding gold demand going forward: if AI models really become more efficient and less data center usage is needed, demand for gold in tech could be affected as well.

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Time for your weekly fix of what’s going on at the messy intersection of commodities and geopolitics.</li><li>Energy prices are drifting lower — just as Trump said they would — but I’m not so sure the driver is the one Trump and his team anticipated.</li><li>We’re staring down the barrel of a pretty material manufacturing slump in Q2.</li></ul>

Time for your weekly fix of what’s going on at the messy intersection of commodities and geopolitics.Energy prices are drifting lower — just as Trump said they would — but I’m not so sure the driver is the one Trump and his team anticipated.We’re staring down the barrel of a pretty material manufacturing slump in Q2.

The Drill: A rush for gold amidst a geopolitical circus unfolding

<ul><li>President Trump triggered turmoil in the stock and bond markets, sent shockwaves through the global economy, and claimed the U.S. would eliminate the national debt using trillions supposedly generated from his tariffs.</li><li>Just earlier this week, he declared he wouldn’t make a zero-tariff deal with the EU — and now, without any real change in circumstances, he’s suddenly starting to back down.</li><li>Trump dropped his country-specific tariffs down to a universal 10% rate for all trade partners except China on Wednesday - for a limited time period of 90 days - presumably to have more time to make deals with each country.</li></ul>

President Trump triggered turmoil in the stock and bond markets, sent shockwaves through the global economy, and claimed the U.S. would eliminate the national debt using trillions supposedly generated from his tariffs.Just earlier this week, he declared he wouldn’t make a zero-tariff deal with the EU — and now, without any real change in circumstances, he’s suddenly starting to back down.Trump dropped his country-specific tariffs down to a universal 10% rate for all trade partners except China on Wednesday - for a limited time period of 90 days - presumably to have more time to make deals with each country.

How Commodities React To Trumps New Global Trade Plans

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>A wave of growth-negative news has rolled in since the weekend.</li><li>Trump is reportedly furious with Putin and is now considering secondary tariffs on Russian oil—an escalation that would weigh on global growth.</li><li>Meanwhile, there’s no clear path to peace in Ukraine, with Russia holding the cards and continuing to gain ground, adding further geopolitical drag.</li></ul>

A wave of growth-negative news has rolled in since the weekend.Trump is reportedly furious with Putin and is now considering secondary tariffs on Russian oil—an escalation that would weigh on global growth.Meanwhile, there’s no clear path to peace in Ukraine, with Russia holding the cards and continuing to gain ground, adding further geopolitical drag.

Steno Signals #191: Meowing at Robots Ahead of Liberation Day!

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

<ul><li>President Trump very clearly lost his patience over the weekend and sharpened his rhetoric against Putin sharply (Iran too – more on that later).</li><li>Trump is now threatening third-party tariffs on countries buying Russian oil – namely China and India, of course.</li><li>To me, this is a sign that Putin is dragging out the negotiations, leveraging the fact that he is in no hurry to reach a peace agreement.</li></ul>

President Trump very clearly lost his patience over the weekend and sharpened his rhetoric against Putin sharply (Iran too – more on that later).Trump is now threatening third-party tariffs on countries buying Russian oil – namely China and India, of course.To me, this is a sign that Putin is dragging out the negotiations, leveraging the fact that he is in no hurry to reach a peace agreement.

The Drill: The Commodity Doom-Loop into Liberation Day

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Sentiment Signal in Gold

This chart from Sentiment Trader highlights that also gold stocks are quite stretched - which isn’t a sell signal, as a stretched market can always...

The Commodity Report

The Drill: A rush for gold amidst a geopolitical circus unfolding

Time for your weekly fix of what’s going on at the messy intersection of commodities and geopolitics. Energy prices are drifting lower — just as...

Steno Research

How Commodities React To Trumps New Global Trade Plans

Just earlier this week, he declared he wouldn’t make a zero-tariff deal with the EU — and now, without any real change in circumstances, he’s...

The Commodity Report

Steno Signals #191: Meowing at Robots Ahead of Liberation Day!

A wave of growth-negative news has rolled in since the weekend. Trump is reportedly furious with Putin and is now considering secondary tariffs on...

Steno Research

The Drill: The Commodity Doom-Loop into Liberation Day

President Trump very clearly lost his patience over the weekend and sharpened his rhetoric against Putin sharply (Iran too – more on that...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)