Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>DeepSeek appears to have turned the chatbot market upside-down, putting pressure on AI-linked stocks. The dust has yet to settle, but the selloff has been largely contained to AI-linked stocks.</li>
<li>The rest of the market did not seem to care; the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 was roughly flat yesterday.</li>
<li>Additionally, market dynamics remain healthy. Bottom line: as long as the S&amp;P 500 remains above 5600-5670, our long-term outlook remains bullish.</li>
</ul>


DeepSeek appears to have turned the chatbot market upside-down, putting pressure on AI-linked stocks. The dust has yet to settle, but the selloff has been largely contained to AI-linked stocks.
The rest of the market did not seem to care; the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 was roughly flat yesterday.
Additionally, market dynamics remain healthy. Bottom line: as long as the S&amp;P 500 remains above 5600-5670, our long-term outlook remains bullish.


S&P 500 Testing Prior Breakout Level; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy Despite AI-Linked Weakness

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crude-oil" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22869:1" rel="noopener">Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)</a> has been pulling back last week, and this week started with another drop (in sync with falling US stocks).</li>
<li>The commodity may be reaching soon a a support area with a high probability of reversal. There are various conflicting forecasts for Oil, our forecast is only short-term. </li>
<li>Our Crude Oil model indicates the 74-70 support area as oversold, a reversal of the trend may begin from there, the trend could continue higher afterwards.</li>
</ul>



Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY) has been pulling back last week, and this week started with another drop (in sync with falling US stocks).
The commodity may be reaching soon a a support area with a high probability of reversal. There are various conflicting forecasts for Oil, our forecast is only short-term. 
Our Crude Oil model indicates the 74-70 support area as oversold, a reversal of the trend may begin from there, the trend could continue higher afterwards.


Crude Oil: A Buying Opportunity Could Be Near

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>Soybean-Meal Oversupply Crisis Incoming? When you crush soybeans, you get one part of soy oil and another part of soy meal.</li><li>Per soybean crushed, you get something like an 80/20 meal to oil share.</li><li>While the soy oil part is currently in high demand due to a higher bioethanol requirement (Brazil increased the share from 14% to15% as of 2025), there isn’t an additional demand driver for soy meal.</li></ul>

Soybean-Meal Oversupply Crisis Incoming? When you crush soybeans, you get one part of soy oil and another part of soy meal.Per soybean crushed, you get something like an 80/20 meal to oil share.While the soy oil part is currently in high demand due to a higher bioethanol requirement (Brazil increased the share from 14% to15% as of 2025), there isn’t an additional demand driver for soy meal.

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish, and since late-December we have been suggesting to use the pullback as a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>Most recent/highest conviction "buy-the-dip" call came last week (1/14/25) amid all major indexes testing supports (SPX, QQQ, DJI, IJH, VXF, IWM, ARKK, SMH), bullish breadth divergences, other ongoing bullish signals.</li>
<li>Those dip buys are finally paying off, with all these indexes breaking out from 1+month consolidations. The SPX has gapped-up on four of past five trading days, indicating significant strength</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish, and since late-December we have been suggesting to use the pullback as a buying opportunity.
Most recent/highest conviction "buy-the-dip" call came last week (1/14/25) amid all major indexes testing supports (SPX, QQQ, DJI, IJH, VXF, IWM, ARKK, SMH), bullish breadth divergences, other ongoing bullish signals.
Those dip buys are finally paying off, with all these indexes breaking out from 1+month consolidations. The SPX has gapped-up on four of past five trading days, indicating significant strength


Local Tops for 10-Year Treasury Yield, DXY, and Crude Oil; All Major Indexes Breaking Out. Bullish

<ul>
<li>Rising DXY, Treasury yields, and now energy commodities breaking out (Bloomberg Commodity index $DJP and WTI crude oil) suggests upside is likely to be capped, but...</li>
<li>...we still continue to see many other risk-on signals. As a result, we view this pullback as a buying opportunity, with all the major indexes testing/holding at support</li>
<li>Looking for support on the S&amp;P 500 at 5850, the 100-day MA (currently 5820), 5765-5770, and 5600-5670. As long as the S&amp;P 500 remains above 5600-5670, our outlook remains bullish</li>
</ul>


Rising DXY, Treasury yields, and now energy commodities breaking out (Bloomberg Commodity index $DJP and WTI crude oil) suggests upside is likely to be capped, but...
...we still continue to see many other risk-on signals. As a result, we view this pullback as a buying opportunity, with all the major indexes testing/holding at support
Looking for support on the S&amp;P 500 at 5850, the 100-day MA (currently 5820), 5765-5770, and 5600-5670. As long as the S&amp;P 500 remains above 5600-5670, our outlook remains bullish


S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Bull Flag Supports; Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buy the Pullback

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

S&P 500 Testing Prior Breakout Level; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy Despite AI-Linked Weakness

$SPX Testing Prior Breakout Level; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy Despite AI-Linked Weakness; $DXY, Treasury yields, and crude oil near-term tops...

Vermilion Research

Crude Oil: A Buying Opportunity Could Be Near

Crude Oil is pulling back, 2 weeks down, nearly oversold, we see strong support for reversal in the 74-70 price area. A reversal could lead to a...

Nico Rosti

Soybean-Meal Oversupply Crisis Incoming?

Soybean-Meal Oversupply Crisis Incoming? When you crush soybeans, you get one part of soy oil and another part of soy meal. Per soybean crushed,...

The Commodity Report

Local Tops for 10-Year Treasury Yield, DXY, and Crude Oil; All Major Indexes Breaking Out. Bullish

Local Tops for 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX, U.S. Dollar $DXY, & WTI Crude Oil $CL_F, Now Tailwinds for Equities; All Major Indexes We Discussed...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Bull Flag Supports; Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buy the Pullback

$SPX and $QQQ $NDX Testing Bull Flag Supports; Bullish Breadth Divergences (SPX and $IWM % above 20-dma); All Major Indexes Above Key Supports $DJI...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

S&P 500 Testing Prior Breakout Level; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy Despite AI-Linked Weakness

$SPX Testing Prior Breakout Level; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy Despite AI-Linked Weakness; $DXY, Treasury yields, and crude oil near-term tops...

Vermilion Research

Crude Oil: A Buying Opportunity Could Be Near

​Crude Oil is pulling back, 2 weeks down, nearly oversold, we see strong support for reversal in the 74-70 price area. A reversal could lead to a...

Nico Rosti

Soybean-Meal Oversupply Crisis Incoming?

Soybean-Meal Oversupply Crisis Incoming? When you crush soybeans, you get one part of soy oil and another part of soy meal. Per soybean crushed,...

The Commodity Report

Local Tops for 10-Year Treasury Yield, DXY, and Crude Oil; All Major Indexes Breaking Out. Bullish

Local Tops for 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX, U.S. Dollar $DXY, & WTI Crude Oil $CL_F, Now Tailwinds for Equities; All Major Indexes We Discussed...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Bull Flag Supports; Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buy the Pullback

$SPX and $QQQ $NDX Testing Bull Flag Supports; Bullish Breadth Divergences (SPX and $IWM % above 20-dma); All Major Indexes Above Key Supports $DJI...

Vermilion Research

Crude Oil is pulling back, 2 weeks down, nearly oversold, we see strong support for reversal in the 74-70 price area. A reversal could lead to a...