Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The ISM figure for May surprised negatively Monday, admittedly a short-term setback for the whole reflation story we have laid out over the past months.</li><li>There are however signs that we could be in for a VERY hot summer/autumn in manufacturing terms, and market pricing in cyclicals vs defensives are still showing support for materially higher ISM manufacturing levels around 56-57.</li><li>Chart 1a: Cyclicals vs Defensives. It might seem surprising to discuss the ISM reaching 56, but there are intriguing signs from high-beta economies like Sweden, Germany, Canada, and South Korea.</li></ul>

The ISM figure for May surprised negatively Monday, admittedly a short-term setback for the whole reflation story we have laid out over the past months.There are however signs that we could be in for a VERY hot summer/autumn in manufacturing terms, and market pricing in cyclicals vs defensives are still showing support for materially higher ISM manufacturing levels around 56-57.Chart 1a: Cyclicals vs Defensives. It might seem surprising to discuss the ISM reaching 56, but there are intriguing signs from high-beta economies like Sweden, Germany, Canada, and South Korea.

Business Cycle Watch – What if ISM Manufacturing rises to 56?

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>OPEC+ decided to extend production cuts to the end of 2025. It also plans to ease voluntary output cuts starting this October.</li>
<li>Easing hints sent oil prices tanking, shedding 5% over two days. Weak demand and ample supply thanks to overproduction by OPEC+ members lend little price support.</li>
<li>Summer driving season will ramp up gasoline demand. Weather might dampen demand, but panic buying will more than offset the demand pullback.</li>
</ul>


OPEC+ decided to extend production cuts to the end of 2025. It also plans to ease voluntary output cuts starting this October.
Easing hints sent oil prices tanking, shedding 5% over two days. Weak demand and ample supply thanks to overproduction by OPEC+ members lend little price support.
Summer driving season will ramp up gasoline demand. Weather might dampen demand, but panic buying will more than offset the demand pullback.


OPEC’s Hint at Easing Production Cuts Sends Oil Prices Tanking

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>The divergence between market-cap weighted and and non market-cap weighted indices is slowly normalizing, but the impact that NVIDIA (and some of the other big tech firms) has on both broad equity returns is notable with the 5 largest companies in the S&amp;P 500 accounting for roughly 30% of the index by now.</li><li>This does not only have implications for the distribution of returns between bigger indices (Nasdaq vs Dow Jones for instance), but also on indices option volatility, with the VIX ex NVIDIA hitting lows of around 9 in May (2017/2018 lows).</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.The divergence between market-cap weighted and and non market-cap weighted indices is slowly normalizing, but the impact that NVIDIA (and some of the other big tech firms) has on both broad equity returns is notable with the 5 largest companies in the S&amp;P 500 accounting for roughly 30% of the index by now.This does not only have implications for the distribution of returns between bigger indices (Nasdaq vs Dow Jones for instance), but also on indices option volatility, with the VIX ex NVIDIA hitting lows of around 9 in May (2017/2018 lows).

Positioning Watch – Turmoil in Markets Is Returning

<ul><li>Evening from Europe!What a bloodbath in long oil bets today, and we are bleeding alongside the crowd as we are down 5.7% in our long bets in the CLN4 future.</li><li>The OPEC+ meeting over the weekend did not fuel a bullish supply narrative as we can (at best) expect the status quo.</li><li>The supply cuts were prolonged (as was our base-case), but assuming that the cuts will actually be reversed by June or September 2025, which seems to be the forward guidance from OPEC now, we’d have to see a much stronger business cycle in Manufacturing for that to match with the demand side.</li></ul>

Evening from Europe!What a bloodbath in long oil bets today, and we are bleeding alongside the crowd as we are down 5.7% in our long bets in the CLN4 future.The OPEC+ meeting over the weekend did not fuel a bullish supply narrative as we can (at best) expect the status quo.The supply cuts were prolonged (as was our base-case), but assuming that the cuts will actually be reversed by June or September 2025, which seems to be the forward guidance from OPEC now, we’d have to see a much stronger business cycle in Manufacturing for that to match with the demand side.

Energy Cable: OPEC needs a big rebound on the demand side

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul><li>Brent crude has weakened by $10 since early April, with the prompt time spread indicating plentiful supply relative to consumption</li><li>Demand for crude oil for combustive fuels like gasoline and diesel is expected to peak towards the end of the decade, while demand for natural gas liquids used in petrochemical production is set to rise</li><li>Preliminary demand data for April showed signs of improvement, with observable oil inventories increasing, particularly in China, due to lower oil prices prompting stockpiling</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Brent crude has weakened by $10 since early April, with the prompt time spread indicating plentiful supply relative to consumptionDemand for crude oil for combustive fuels like gasoline and diesel is expected to peak towards the end of the decade, while demand for natural gas liquids used in petrochemical production is set to risePreliminary demand data for April showed signs of improvement, with observable oil inventories increasing, particularly in China, due to lower oil prices prompting stockpilingThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Commodities: Demand for Oil Is Good, Just Not for Crude

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Business Cycle Watch – What if ISM Manufacturing rises to 56?

The ISM figure for May surprised negatively Monday, admittedly a short-term setback for the whole reflation story we have laid out over the past...

Steno Research

OPEC’s Hint at Easing Production Cuts Sends Oil Prices Tanking

Oil prices tanking on OPEC’s intention to ease cuts. Seasonal demand to push gasoline demand & prices despite hurricane fears. This backdrop is...

Mint Finance

Positioning Watch – Turmoil in Markets Is Returning

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch. The divergence between market-cap weighted and and non market-cap weighted...

Steno Research

Energy Cable: OPEC needs a big rebound on the demand side

Evening from Europe! What a bloodbath in long oil bets today, and we are bleeding alongside the crowd as we are down 5.7% in our long bets in the...

Steno Research

Global Commodities: Demand for Oil Is Good, Just Not for Crude

The decline in Brent crude prices due to weakening spreads and a shift in demand towards petrochemicals and natural gas, accompanied by signs of...

At Any Rate

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