Over 25-yrs in Global Materials & Soft Commodities

Charles Spencer

Commodities

INVESTMENT VIEW We remain sellers of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8632" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8632:1">SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US)</a> and expect further downside below US$115/sh (or ~US$50/oz of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22870" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a>) in the weeks ahead.  
US FED SUPPORTS RISING RATES Gold fell to its weakest level in a year overnight, down 1.2% to US$1,226/oz, as the dollar advanced and Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell reiterated the need for further gradual interest rate rises. The precious metal, which competes against real yielding assets like TIPS tends to be sold off in times of…

INVESTMENT VIEW We remain sellers of SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US) and expect further downside below US$115/sh (or ~US$50/oz of Gold (GOLD COMDTY)) in the weeks ahead.  
US FED SUPPORTS RISING RATES  Gold fell to its weakest level in a year overnight, down 1.2% to US$1,226/oz, as the dollar advanced and Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell reiterated the need for further gradual interest rate rises. The precious metal, which competes against real yielding assets like TIPS tends to be sold off in times of…

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

The fall in gold may make sense against the stronger USD.  However, it is odd to see it underperform other G10 currencies in an environment of higher global market volatility and increasing inflation pressure in the US.  The steep fall in CNY may reflect a new policy era under a new central bank governor, allowing currency flexibility to act as a shock absorber for the economy. It hasn't led to capital flight from China, and this may be helping limit contagion to global markets.  However, weak Chinese currency and equities are spreading more clearly to Asian markets. The threat of tariffs has not significantly dampened activity indicators in Asia or globally.  US surveys are still reporting rude health.  Inflation risks are rising in the US and are likely to keep the Fed raising rates at a steady pace.  The USD may remain relatively strong against most other currencies while it continues to raise rates.  Negative feedback from global market volatility and tariffs to US markets and economic confidence may not be sufficient yet to halt the USD’s advance.

The fall in gold may make sense against the stronger USD.  However, it is odd to see it underperform other G10 currencies in an environment of higher global market volatility and increasing inflation pressure in the US.  The steep fall in CNY may reflect a new policy era under a new central bank governor, allowing currency flexibility to act as a shock absorber for the economy. It hasn't led to capital flight from China, and this may be helping limit contagion to global markets.  However, weak Chinese currency and equities are spreading more clearly to Asian markets. The threat of tariffs has not significantly dampened activity indicators in Asia or globally.  US surveys are still reporting rude health.  Inflation risks are rising in the US and are likely to keep the Fed raising rates at a steady pace.  The USD may remain relatively strong against most other currencies while it continues to raise rates.  Negative feedback from global market volatility and tariffs to US markets and economic confidence may not be sufficient yet to halt the USD’s advance.

Gold Confounds, A New Era of CNY Flexibility, Inflation Pressure Builds in the USA

Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

Technical Analysis

The right configuration for some sort of a Crash is in place, so the answer is “much higher than normal”.  This is not a forecast as such, because real Crashes are rare and these set-ups can appear without the worst happening.  However, the bull market wave patterns which began pre-2010 are ending; some US and (many?) global indices have probably already rolled over into bear markets.  If we have indeed correctly read the patterns, it won’t be like 1987, more like Q3 1937, or perhaps Summer 2002 - a persistent decline of about 20% from June’s highs to below SPX 2,250 - although that may not be the full extent of the bear market.  So this is really more of an alert to think about what you would do if you find prices sliding through support you thought would hold.

The right configuration for some sort of a Crash is in place, so the answer is “much higher than normal”.  This is not a forecast as such, because real Crashes are rare and these set-ups can appear without the worst happening.  However, the bull market wave patterns which began pre-2010 are ending; some US and (many?) global indices have probably already rolled over into bear markets.  If we have indeed correctly read the patterns, it won’t be like 1987, more like Q3 1937, or perhaps Summer 2002 - a persistent decline of about 20% from June’s highs to below SPX 2,250 - although that may not be the full extent of the bear market.  So this is really more of an alert to think about what you would do if you find prices sliding through support you thought would hold.

INVESTMENT VIEW We remain sellers of  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8632" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8632:1">SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US)</a>, despite a deepening global trade war.  The key bearish trend highlighted in our note last May remain in-tact (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gold-price-challenged-by-rising-real-yields" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:20643">Gold Price Challenged by Rising Real Yields</a>).  Despite a fall of over ~US$40/oz since then, we continue to look for further downside of ~US$50/oz in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22870" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> this summer.
CHALLENGES REMAIN Despite the metal's reputation as a safe haven asset, investors have been selling <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22870" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> during the past month. In…

INVESTMENT VIEW We remain sellers of  SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US), despite a deepening global trade war.  The key bearish trend highlighted in our note last May remain in-tact (Gold Price Challenged by Rising Real Yields).  Despite a fall of over ~US$40/oz since then, we continue to look for further downside of ~US$50/oz in Gold (GOLD COMDTY) this summer.
CHALLENGES REMAIN Despite the metal's reputation as a safe haven asset, investors have been selling Gold (GOLD COMDTY) during the past month. In…

Gold has another 10% risk in it, unless it can break back above 1,306.Gold has probably been base-building since 2013, but the lack of bullish rally patterns since Q1 2017 had been warning that the process might not be complete.  We remain concerned that the rally from that Q1 low merely ended wave B up in an A-B-C “sideways” Flat 2nd wave trading range of 1,120- 1,375.  The completion of the B-wave opened the way for a fairly sharp 5-wave drop back to that 1,120 support area.  The action above…

Gold has another 10% risk in it, unless it can break back above 1,306.Gold has probably been base-building since 2013, but the lack of bullish rally patterns since Q1 2017 had been warning that the process might not be complete.  We remain concerned that the rally from that Q1 low merely ended wave B up in an A-B-C “sideways” Flat 2nd wave trading range of 1,120- 1,375.  The completion of the B-wave opened the way for a fairly sharp 5-wave drop back to that 1,120 support area.  The action above…

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

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Gold (GOLD COMDTY)

Gold Gets Tarnished Overnight

INVESTMENT VIEWWe remain sellers of SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US) and expect further downside below US$115/sh (or ~US$50/oz of Gold (GOLD COMDTY)) in...

Charles Spencer

Gold Confounds, A New Era of CNY Flexibility, Inflation Pressure Builds in the USA

The fall in gold may make sense against the stronger USD. However, it is odd to see it underperform other G10 currencies in an environment of...

Greg Gibbs

S&P 500: What Are the Odds of a Crash?

The right configuration for some sort of a Crash is in place, so the answer is “much higher than normal”. This is not a forecast as such, because...

Peter Beuttell

Gold Falls Despite Trade Wars

INVESTMENT VIEWWe remain sellers of SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US), despite a deepening global trade war. The key bearish trend highlighted in our...

Charles Spencer

Gold: Headed for 1,120

Gold has another 10% risk in it, unless it can break back above 1,306.Gold has probably been base-building since 2013, but the lack of bullish...

Peter Beuttell

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