Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">SoftBank Group (9984 JP)</a> reports Q1 FY2025 earnings on 7 August at 15:30 JST, with a conference call at 16:30 JST.</li>
<li>
Highlights: SoftBank’s post-earnings moves are often sharp and unpredictable — with outliers above ±12%. Options markets flag the results day as a high-volatility event to watch.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for investors or options traders focused on Japan: Understand how timing, historic patterns and current volatility pricing shape both opportunity and risk around SoftBank earnings.</li>
</ul>



SoftBank Group (9984 JP) reports Q1 FY2025 earnings on 7 August at 15:30 JST, with a conference call at 16:30 JST.

Highlights: SoftBank’s post-earnings moves are often sharp and unpredictable — with outliers above ±12%. Options markets flag the results day as a high-volatility event to watch.

Why Read: Essential for investors or options traders focused on Japan: Understand how timing, historic patterns and current volatility pricing shape both opportunity and risk around SoftBank earnings.


Softbank Group (9984 JP) Results on 7 Aug: Expected Move and Option Insights

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>KKR HKE Investment is offering 30m shares (12.86% of shares out) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> in a secondary offering that could raise up to JPY 91bn (US$620m).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applied-materials-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:283:1" rel="noopener">Applied Materials (AMAT US)</a> will become the largest shareholder in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> after the placement.</li>
<li>There will not be a lot of buying from passive trackers following the placement, but it could ease the way for inclusion of the stock in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 Index</a>.</li>
</ul>


KKR HKE Investment is offering 30m shares (12.86% of shares out) of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) in a secondary offering that could raise up to JPY 91bn (US$620m).

Applied Materials (AMAT US) will become the largest shareholder in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) after the placement.
There will not be a lot of buying from passive trackers following the placement, but it could ease the way for inclusion of the stock in the Nikkei 225 Index.


Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Small Index Impact for Now, but Could Lead to Something Bigger

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> September rebalance ends in 4 weeks. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.</li>
<li>There will be passive buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting</a> as the PAF moves from 0.5 to 1. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>'s index weight is below the 10% cap for now. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rohm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2953:1" rel="noopener">ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP)</a> replaces <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-data-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11232:1" rel="noopener">NTT Data Corp (9613 JP)</a> later this week and there will be a lot of focus on those names.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) September rebalance ends in 4 weeks. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.
There will be passive buying in BayCurrent Consulting as the PAF moves from 0.5 to 1. Fast Retailing (9983 JP)'s index weight is below the 10% cap for now. 

ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) replaces NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) later this week and there will be a lot of focus on those names.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2025): Potential Adds, Deletes, PAF, Capping & Other Changes

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for the key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 28 - August 1.</li>
<li>
OVERSOLD: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commonwealth-bank-of-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14:1" rel="noopener">Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU)</a> are just mildly oversold, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> is oversold.</li>
<li>
OVERBOUGHT: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon (AMZN US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc-cl-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOG US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA (NVDA US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 INDEX</a> </li>
</ul>


A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for the key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 28 - August 1.

OVERSOLD: China Mobile (941 HK) , Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU) are just mildly oversold, NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) is oversold.

OVERBOUGHT: Amazon (AMZN US) , Alphabet (GOOG US) , NVIDIA (NVDA US) , Toyota Motor (7203 JP) , Softbank Group (9984 JP) , Hang Seng Index , Nikkei 225 INDEX 


Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 28 – August 1

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>
Context: Central Bank rate decisions, index changes and political events can move markets and affect volatility. Exchange holidays and option expiration schedules might influence liquidity on these days.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Earnings season keeps several regional markets busy through early to mid-August. Meanwhile, three central banks in the region are scheduled to hold monetary policy meetings spaced across the month.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.</li>
</ul>



Context: Central Bank rate decisions, index changes and political events can move markets and affect volatility. Exchange holidays and option expiration schedules might influence liquidity on these days.

Highlights: Earnings season keeps several regional markets busy through early to mid-August. Meanwhile, three central banks in the region are scheduled to hold monetary policy meetings spaced across the month.

Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.


The Month Ahead: Key Events in August 2025

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

Softbank Group (9984 JP) Results on 7 Aug: Expected Move and Option Insights

SoftBank's earnings have historically triggered sharp post-earnings moves - a pattern mirrored in a dramatic implied volatility term structure.

Gaudenz Schneider

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Small Index Impact for Now, but Could Lead to Something Bigger

Kokusai Electric has traded in a tight range following its placement. 50m shares have traded since then vs the 30m placement shares. The stock has...

Brian Freitas

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2025): Potential Adds, Deletes, PAF, Capping & Other Changes

With the review period nearly complete, we expect 1-2 changes for the NKY in September. The Kokusai Electric placement improves inclusion odds. No...

Brian Freitas

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 28 – August 1

Key indices, stocks, commodities, and bonds forecast for the week July 28 - August 1: NIFTY oversold, while Amazon, Alphabet, NVIDIA, Toyota...

Nico Rosti

The Month Ahead: Key Events in August 2025

Three central banks (India, Australia, South Korea) decide on rates. Earnings season continues in South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, and India, and is...

Gaudenz Schneider

Softbank Group (9984 JP) Results on 7 Aug: Expected Move and Option Insights

​SoftBank's earnings have historically triggered sharp post-earnings moves - a pattern mirrored in a dramatic implied volatility term structure.

Gaudenz Schneider

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Small Index Impact for Now, but Could Lead to Something Bigger

Kokusai Electric has traded in a tight range following its placement. 50m shares have traded since then vs the 30m placement shares. The stock has...

Brian Freitas

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2025): Potential Adds, Deletes, PAF, Capping & Other Changes

With the review period nearly complete, we expect 1-2 changes for the NKY in September. The Kokusai Electric placement improves inclusion odds. No...

Brian Freitas

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 28 – August 1

​Key indices, stocks, commodities, and bonds forecast for the week July 28 - August 1: NIFTY oversold, while Amazon, Alphabet, NVIDIA, Toyota...

Nico Rosti

The Month Ahead: Key Events in August 2025

Three central banks (India, Australia, South Korea) decide on rates. Earnings season continues in South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, and India, and is...

Gaudenz Schneider

SoftBank's earnings have historically triggered sharp post-earnings moves - a pattern mirrored in a dramatic implied volatility term structure.

Key indices, stocks, commodities, and bonds forecast for the week July 28 - August 1: NIFTY oversold, while Amazon, Alphabet, NVIDIA, Toyota...