Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>The five-year data on past Bank of Japan interest rate decisions suggests that realized <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> volatility tends to slightly and temporarily increase after a rate decision announcement.</li>
<li>Investors might make use of this observation by adjusting the timing of directional trades around rate decisions or by using options.</li>
<li>With monetary policy expected to become more active in the next months, its effect on volatility might grow.</li>
</ul>


The five-year data on past Bank of Japan interest rate decisions suggests that realized Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) volatility tends to slightly and temporarily increase after a rate decision announcement.
Investors might make use of this observation by adjusting the timing of directional trades around rate decisions or by using options.
With monetary policy expected to become more active in the next months, its effect on volatility might grow.


EQD | Nikkei 225 Realized Volatility Following Rate Decisions

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>LDP won just 191 seats (down 68) and Komeito 24 (down 8), marking a decisive end to the 12-year "Abe Shinzo era" of renewed LDP dominance of Japan's polity. </li>
<li>The putative coalition of the CDPJ and centre-left parties have 185 seats, plus 8 for the Japan Communist Party. Big gains for the centre-left, but insufficient to form a government. </li>
<li>The Japan Innovation Party (Ishin) holds the balance of power, with 38 seats. It's ideologically closer to LDP, but ruled out joining it, so a disjointed non-LDP coalition is likely. </li>
</ul>


LDP won just 191 seats (down 68) and Komeito 24 (down 8), marking a decisive end to the 12-year "Abe Shinzo era" of renewed LDP dominance of Japan's polity. 
The putative coalition of the CDPJ and centre-left parties have 185 seats, plus 8 for the Japan Communist Party. Big gains for the centre-left, but insufficient to form a government. 
The Japan Innovation Party (Ishin) holds the balance of power, with 38 seats. It's ideologically closer to LDP, but ruled out joining it, so a disjointed non-LDP coalition is likely. 


Japan: LDP-Komeito Lose Their Abe-Era Majority; Political Uncertainty Ahead

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Global equity markets have experienced falling prices and increasing volatility over the past week. Some markets were affected more than others.</li>
<li>Hedging opportunities in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ftse-100-index-ukx" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22904:1" rel="noopener">FTSE 100 Index (UKX INDEX)</a>, or the Swiss Market Index; all with sub-13% implied volatility.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> experienced some of the largest market and volatility moves in international comparison, with more turbulence likely ahead following the Japanese elections.</li>
</ul>


Global equity markets have experienced falling prices and increasing volatility over the past week. Some markets were affected more than others.
Hedging opportunities in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX), the FTSE 100 Index (UKX INDEX), or the Swiss Market Index; all with sub-13% implied volatility.
The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) experienced some of the largest market and volatility moves in international comparison, with more turbulence likely ahead following the Japanese elections.


EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility - Nikkei 225, Nifty 50, S&P/ASX 200, S&P 500, SMI, FTSE 100

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>While it may not be what investors are clamouring for - China follows through with its policies.</li>
<li>The broad Japanese indices continue to struggle despite JPY weakness</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
While it may not be what investors are clamouring for - China follows through with its policies.
The broad Japanese indices continue to struggle despite JPY weakness


Overview #11 – China Follows Through While Japan Dithers and India Feeds the Ducks

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 INDEX</a> continues to move chaotically in highly unpredictable and fragmented fashion. At the moment it's been falling for 2 weeks (CC=-2 to be confirmed on Friday).</li>
<li>Since the index is in a phase where it keeps going up and down with no trend, we see an opportunity to accumulate short-term LONG positions on the current pullback.</li>
<li>A small bounce from current levels, rising towards the 41k target, could generate some good returns in a short span of time. This would be a reversal trade.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 INDEX continues to move chaotically in highly unpredictable and fragmented fashion. At the moment it's been falling for 2 weeks (CC=-2 to be confirmed on Friday).
Since the index is in a phase where it keeps going up and down with no trend, we see an opportunity to accumulate short-term LONG positions on the current pullback.
A small bounce from current levels, rising towards the 41k target, could generate some good returns in a short span of time. This would be a reversal trade.


EQD | Short-Term BUY Opportunity For The Nikkei 225

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

EQD | Nikkei 225 Realized Volatility Following Rate Decisions

Data shows that Nikkei 225 volatility tends to rise after Bank of Japan rate decisions, suggesting potential trading strategies for investors as...

Gaudenz Schneider

Japan: LDP-Komeito Lose Their Abe-Era Majority; Political Uncertainty Ahead

LDP-Komeito have 215 seats, 18 short of a majority. CDPJ and centre-left have 185 seats. JIP holds balance of power with 38. Political uncertainty...

Prasenjit K. Basu

EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility - Nikkei 225, Nifty 50, S&P/ASX 200, S&P 500, SMI, FTSE 100

Global equity markets have seen falling prices and rising volatility. Hedging opportunities exist in the FTSE 100, SMI, and S&P/ASX 200. The...

Gaudenz Schneider

Overview #11 – China Follows Through While Japan Dithers and India Feeds the Ducks

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the big kahunas in Asia - China, Japan and India

Rikki Malik

EQD | Short-Term BUY Opportunity For The Nikkei 225

The Nikkei 225 INDEX is currently moving chaotically, the trend remains unclear. We see an opportunity to accumulate LONG positions for a short...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Nikkei 225 Realized Volatility Following Rate Decisions

​Data shows that Nikkei 225 volatility tends to rise after Bank of Japan rate decisions, suggesting potential trading strategies for investors as...

Gaudenz Schneider

Japan: LDP-Komeito Lose Their Abe-Era Majority; Political Uncertainty Ahead

LDP-Komeito have 215 seats, 18 short of a majority. CDPJ and centre-left have 185 seats. JIP holds balance of power with 38. Political uncertainty...

Prasenjit K. Basu

EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility - Nikkei 225, Nifty 50, S&P/ASX 200, S&P 500, SMI, FTSE 100

​Global equity markets have seen falling prices and rising volatility. Hedging opportunities exist in the FTSE 100, SMI, and S&P/ASX 200. The...

Gaudenz Schneider

Overview #11 – China Follows Through While Japan Dithers and India Feeds the Ducks

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the big kahunas in Asia - China, Japan and India

Rikki Malik

EQD | Short-Term BUY Opportunity For The Nikkei 225

​The Nikkei 225 INDEX is currently moving chaotically, the trend remains unclear. We see an opportunity to accumulate LONG positions for a short...

Nico Rosti

Data shows that Nikkei 225 volatility tends to rise after Bank of Japan rate decisions, suggesting potential trading strategies for investors as...

Global equity markets have seen falling prices and rising volatility. Hedging opportunities exist in the FTSE 100, SMI, and S&P/ASX 200. The...

The Nikkei 225 INDEX is currently moving chaotically, the trend remains unclear. We see an opportunity to accumulate LONG positions for a short...