Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The JPY is knocking on a key level vs the USD</li>
<li>Uncertainty over Fed interest rate decision could be a catalyst for a reversal</li>
<li>Buy JPY, Gold and Gold miners on any short-term correction</li>
</ul>


The JPY is knocking on a key level vs the USD
Uncertainty over Fed interest rate decision could be a catalyst for a reversal
Buy JPY, Gold and Gold miners on any short-term correction


Tactical Trading -Fed Meeting a Catalyst for Counter-Trend Moves

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Although the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 INDEX</a> was rallying strong early in the year, from mid-March the rally started to falter, and after a fake recovery into July, it fell again, lower.</li>
<li>Should the index go lower from last week's Close at 36581.76, the next paragraphs of this insight will indicate what price levels are strong support to buy.</li>
<li>The only doubt we have is that the index's overall trend does not look good. A correction to 33000 (or lower) is a possibility - a negative YEARLY performance.</li>
</ul>


Although the Nikkei 225 INDEX was rallying strong early in the year, from mid-March the rally started to falter, and after a fake recovery into July, it fell again, lower.
Should the index go lower from last week's Close at 36581.76, the next paragraphs of this insight will indicate what price levels are strong support to buy.
The only doubt we have is that the index's overall trend does not look good. A correction to 33000 (or lower) is a possibility - a negative YEARLY performance.


EQD | The Nikkei 225's Trend Is Not Looking Good

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Vietcap

Vietcap

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The VN-Index (VNI) increased 2.6% in August. At the beginning of the month (August 1st to 5th), the VNI declined 5.1% as selling pressure occurred across all sectors in line with the negative performance of the global stock market in the same period (S&amp;P500: -4.8%; Nasdaq: -5.8%; DJI: -4.1%; Nikkei 225: -17.5%).</li><li>However, the VNI quickly recovered towards the end of August (+8.1%) due to several factors including: (1) global equity markets rallied with S&amp;P500: +8.9%; Nasdaq: +9.3%; DJI: +7.4%; Nikkei 225: +22.9%, (2) higher expectations about the removal of the "prefunding" bottleneck, which is a key criterion for the market upgrade by FTSE, (3) the appreciation of the VND supported market sentiment (the VND appreciated 1.6% against the USD in August), and (4) real estate stocks increased 4.5% in August as three amended laws (Land Law 2024, Housing Law 2023, and the Real Estate Business Law 2023) took effect from August 1, 2024.</li><li>As of August 30, the VNI closed at 1,283.9 (+2.6% MoM).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The VN-Index (VNI) increased 2.6% in August. At the beginning of the month (August 1st to 5th), the VNI declined 5.1% as selling pressure occurred across all sectors in line with the negative performance of the global stock market in the same period (S&amp;P500: -4.8%; Nasdaq: -5.8%; DJI: -4.1%; Nikkei 225: -17.5%).However, the VNI quickly recovered towards the end of August (+8.1%) due to several factors including: (1) global equity markets rallied with S&amp;P500: +8.9%; Nasdaq: +9.3%; DJI: +7.4%; Nikkei 225: +22.9%, (2) higher expectations about the removal of the "prefunding" bottleneck, which is a key criterion for the market upgrade by FTSE, (3) the appreciation of the VND supported market sentiment (the VND appreciated 1.6% against the USD in August), and (4) real estate stocks increased 4.5% in August as three amended laws (Land Law 2024, Housing Law 2023, and the Real Estate Business Law 2023) took effect from August 1, 2024.As of August 30, the VNI closed at 1,283.9 (+2.6% MoM).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Market Recap August 2024 - VN-Index extends gains in August

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 INDEX</a> has rebounded strongly in the past 2 weeks, there is a chance that it starts to pull back this week.</li>
<li>This insight will try to evaluate what support levels could be good to buy, assuming the index resumes its uptrend after the pullback. </li>
<li>The index could fall for 1 or 2 weeks, the current pullback pattern is bullish (i.e. buy-the-dip).</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 INDEX has rebounded strongly in the past 2 weeks, there is a chance that it starts to pull back this week.
This insight will try to evaluate what support levels could be good to buy, assuming the index resumes its uptrend after the pullback. 
The index could fall for 1 or 2 weeks, the current pullback pattern is bullish (i.e. buy-the-dip).


EQD | What If The Nikkei 225 Pulls Back This Week? (Buy Here)

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data  impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>Expectations for future US interest rate cuts get dialed back - JPY impact</li>
<li>CFTC data shows speculative froth has come out of some markets</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data  impacting our investment themes or outlook
Expectations for future US interest rate cuts get dialed back - JPY impact
CFTC data shows speculative froth has come out of some markets


Overview #7 Speculative Positioning Review

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

Tactical Trading -Fed Meeting a Catalyst for Counter-Trend Moves

JPY, Gold, and Gold miners have the potential for a short-term reversal due to uncertainty over extent of Fed interest rate decision.

Rikki Malik

EQD | The Nikkei 225's Trend Is Not Looking Good

The Nikkei 225 INDEX rally for the year 2024 is faltering, there is potential for further correction. Short-term, this week, look at the provided...

Nico Rosti

Market Recap August 2024 - VN-Index extends gains in August

Since the beginning of the year to end-August, the VNI increased 13.6%, outperforming regional markets such as the Philippines’ PCOMP (+6.9%),...

Vietcap

EQD | What If The Nikkei 225 Pulls Back This Week? (Buy Here)

The Nikkei 225 Index has rebounded strongly for the past 2 weeks, but may pull back this week, presenting potential buy-the-dip opportunities at...

Nico Rosti

Overview #7 Speculative Positioning Review

Recent events/data have led to a dialing back of expectations for US interest rate cuts, while CFTC data indicates a decrease in speculative...

Rikki Malik

Tactical Trading -Fed Meeting a Catalyst for Counter-Trend Moves

JPY, Gold, and Gold miners have the potential for a short-term reversal due to uncertainty over extent of Fed interest rate decision.

Rikki Malik

EQD | The Nikkei 225's Trend Is Not Looking Good

The ​Nikkei 225 INDEX rally for the year 2024 is faltering, there is potential for further correction. Short-term, this week, look at the provided...

Nico Rosti

Market Recap August 2024 - VN-Index extends gains in August

Since the beginning of the year to end-August, the VNI increased 13.6%, outperforming regional markets such as the Philippines’ PCOMP (+6.9%),...

Vietcap

EQD | What If The Nikkei 225 Pulls Back This Week? (Buy Here)

​The Nikkei 225 Index has rebounded strongly for the past 2 weeks, but may pull back this week, presenting potential buy-the-dip opportunities at...

Nico Rosti

Overview #7 Speculative Positioning Review

​Recent events/data have led to a dialing back of expectations for US interest rate cuts, while CFTC data indicates a decrease in speculative...

Rikki Malik

The Nikkei 225 INDEX rally for the year 2024 is faltering, there is potential for further correction. Short-term, this week, look at the provided...

The Nikkei 225 Index has rebounded strongly for the past 2 weeks, but may pull back this week, presenting potential buy-the-dip opportunities at...

Recent events/data have led to a dialing back of expectations for US interest rate cuts, while CFTC data indicates a decrease in speculative...