Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> is closing the month of April in negative territory, first month down after 3 months up.</li>
<li>Our seasonal model indicates that May could also close down, but the index should find strong support in the 37770-36750 price area.</li>
<li>The month of May is a coin flip: the index could close up or down, caution is advised.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) is closing the month of April in negative territory, first month down after 3 months up.
Our seasonal model indicates that May could also close down, but the index should find strong support in the 37770-36750 price area.
The month of May is a coin flip: the index could close up or down, caution is advised.


EQD | Nikkei's Downtrend Could Continue in May (But the Bottom Is Near)

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>QE or not QE – that is the question for China.</li>
<li>Gold’s rise postponed by margin increases from major trading centres?</li>
<li>US markets looking increasingly risky as utilities rise in absolute and relative terms.</li>
</ul>


QE or not QE – that is the question for China.
Gold’s rise postponed by margin increases from major trading centres?
US markets looking increasingly risky as utilities rise in absolute and relative terms.


Macro Overview #2: A Review of Recent Events Impacting Our Investment Themes.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are a bunch of stocks that have underperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> and their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios in May.</li>
<li>The deletion from passive portfolios will lead to a liquidity event at the end of May where passive trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.</li>
<li>Shorts have been built up on all the stocks over the last few months and the extent of the positioning varies across stocks.</li>
</ul>


There are a bunch of stocks that have underperformed the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) and their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios in May.
The deletion from passive portfolios will lead to a liquidity event at the end of May where passive trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.
Shorts have been built up on all the stocks over the last few months and the extent of the positioning varies across stocks.


Japan - Increase in Shorts & Potential Passive Selling in May

<ul>
<li>Federal Reserve “shocks’ markets by taking early rate cuts off the table</li>
<li>New tactics in the Russia/Ukraine war do not bode well for lower oil prices</li>
<li>China releases  Q1 GDP data  which is "stronger" than expected </li>
</ul>


Federal Reserve “shocks’ markets by taking early rate cuts off the table
New tactics in the Russia/Ukraine war do not bode well for lower oil prices
China releases  Q1 GDP data  which is "stronger" than expected 


Macro Overview: A Review of Recent Events Impacting Our Investment Themes

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Macro is truly back with central banks and pricing of policy rates back on the top priority list amongst traders and investors.</li><li>Powell’s remarks from yesterday confirmed fears of the Fed deviating from their promised rate cuts back in December, and the question will now be, whether they will cut rates at all.</li><li>A pivot from a pivot is tough, but it might be exactly what’s going to happen.</li></ul>

Macro is truly back with central banks and pricing of policy rates back on the top priority list amongst traders and investors.Powell’s remarks from yesterday confirmed fears of the Fed deviating from their promised rate cuts back in December, and the question will now be, whether they will cut rates at all.A pivot from a pivot is tough, but it might be exactly what’s going to happen.

5 Things We Watch – Rates Pricing, Bond Positioning, Equities Setback, USD Wrecking Ball...

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

EQD | Nikkei's Downtrend Could Continue in May (But the Bottom Is Near)

The Nikkei is closing the month of April down, and the month of May is a coin flip, but strong LONG support is found between 37770 and 36750. The...

Nico Rosti

Macro Overview #2: A Review of Recent Events Impacting Our Investment Themes.

Is China going to embark on QE? Exchanges raise margin requirements to slow gold's ascent. US and Japanese stock markets look increasingly at risk

Rikki Malik

Japan - Increase in Shorts & Potential Passive Selling in May

There are a bunch of stocks in Japan that could be sold by passive global investors in May. Shorts have increased on all stocks and the extent of...

Brian Freitas

Macro Overview: A Review of Recent Events Impacting Our Investment Themes

Weekly Macro Review -Federal Reserve rules out early rate cuts, Russia/Ukraine conflict impacts oil prices, China's Q1 GDP exceeds expectations.

Rikki Malik

5 Things We Watch – Rates Pricing, Bond Positioning, Equities Setback, USD Wrecking Ball...

Macro is truly back with central banks and pricing of policy rates back on the top priority list amongst traders and investors. Powell’s remarks...

Steno Research

EQD | Nikkei's Downtrend Could Continue in May (But the Bottom Is Near)

The Nikkei is closing the month of April down, and the month of May is a coin flip, but strong LONG support is found between 37770 and 36750. The...

Nico Rosti

Macro Overview #2: A Review of Recent Events Impacting Our Investment Themes.

Is China going to embark on QE? Exchanges raise margin requirements to slow gold's ascent. US and Japanese stock markets look increasingly at risk

Rikki Malik

Japan - Increase in Shorts & Potential Passive Selling in May

There are a bunch of stocks in Japan that could be sold by passive global investors in May. Shorts have increased on all stocks and the extent of...

Brian Freitas

Macro Overview: A Review of Recent Events Impacting Our Investment Themes

Weekly Macro Review -​Federal Reserve rules out early rate cuts, Russia/Ukraine conflict impacts oil prices, China's Q1 GDP exceeds expectations.

Rikki Malik

5 Things We Watch – Rates Pricing, Bond Positioning, Equities Setback, USD Wrecking Ball...

Macro is truly back with central banks and pricing of policy rates back on the top priority list amongst traders and investors. Powell’s remarks...

Steno Research

Weekly Macro Review -Federal Reserve rules out early rate cuts, Russia/Ukraine conflict impacts oil prices, China's Q1 GDP exceeds expectations.