External broker reports(aggregated public sources), MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

MNC Sekuritas, the first wholly-owned subsidiary established by the Group back in 1989, provides a complete range of services, from equity, fixed income, investment banking to providing research to optimize clients’ investments. Thus far, the company has more than 140 points of sales with over 100,000 clients. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>UNVR's unsatisfactory performance, particularly in the late stages of FY23, is attributed to the "consumer sentiment" effect.</li><li>The Middle East geopolitical situation culminated in a fatwa by MUI on Nov-23, prompted consumers to "shift" to alternate brands.</li><li>▪Despite the sales running rate in Jan-24 successfully recovering to 92%, given the ongoing Middle East geopolitical instability, we anticipate the AMP/revenue level to remain high to dispel misinformation, potentially hindering profitability.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

UNVR's unsatisfactory performance, particularly in the late stages of FY23, is attributed to the "consumer sentiment" effect.The Middle East geopolitical situation culminated in a fatwa by MUI on Nov-23, prompted consumers to "shift" to alternate brands.▪Despite the sales running rate in Jan-24 successfully recovering to 92%, given the ongoing Middle East geopolitical instability, we anticipate the AMP/revenue level to remain high to dispel misinformation, potentially hindering profitability.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

UNVR IJ - MNC Sekuritas Equity Report February 22, 2024

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultrajaya-milk-industry-trading-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13892:1" rel="noopener">Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ)</a> is back to the boil in terms of sales growth for both its dairy and carton tea businesses, which both benefit from a nominalisation of mobility. </li>
<li>The company's margins have improved in the dairy business as cost pressure has abated with falling powdered milk prices. Competition has picked up but the overall market is growing sufficiently. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultrajaya-milk-industry-trading-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13892:1" rel="noopener">Ultrajaya Milk</a> will open a new distribution centre in 1Q2024, which should help to drive growth plus it looks to launch new product categories in 2024. Valuations are attractive.</li>
</ul>



Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ) is back to the boil in terms of sales growth for both its dairy and carton tea businesses, which both benefit from a nominalisation of mobility. 
The company's margins have improved in the dairy business as cost pressure has abated with falling powdered milk prices. Competition has picked up but the overall market is growing sufficiently. 

Ultrajaya Milk will open a new distribution centre in 1Q2024, which should help to drive growth plus it looks to launch new product categories in 2024. Valuations are attractive.


Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ) - The Milkmaid Cometh

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>With the FMCG market having sound growth prospects, we estimate FY24F growth of 7% yoy.</li><li>Some categories still showed promising growth in 3Q23, despite the market’s overall volume contraction.</li><li>We maintain our sector OW rating and expect ICBP (TP Rp13,000) and MYOR (TP Rp3,500) to fare better under a soft recovery scenario.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

With the FMCG market having sound growth prospects, we estimate FY24F growth of 7% yoy.Some categories still showed promising growth in 3Q23, despite the market’s overall volume contraction.We maintain our sector OW rating and expect ICBP (TP Rp13,000) and MYOR (TP Rp3,500) to fare better under a soft recovery scenario.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer: Room for Growth Is Still in Store (OVERWEIGHT)

<ul><li>We expect more provision for social aid and the festive events in 1H24 to cushion soft purchasing power recovery amid modest wage hikes.</li><li>We forecast FY24 net profit growth for the sector of 10.6% yoy (core profits: +5% yoy) supported by sales volume recovery (3-9%).</li><li>We maintain sector OW rating and expect ICBP (TP Rp13,000) and MYOR (TP Rp3,500) to fare better under soft recovery scenario.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect more provision for social aid and the festive events in 1H24 to cushion soft purchasing power recovery amid modest wage hikes.We forecast FY24 net profit growth for the sector of 10.6% yoy (core profits: +5% yoy) supported by sales volume recovery (3-9%).We maintain sector OW rating and expect ICBP (TP Rp13,000) and MYOR (TP Rp3,500) to fare better under soft recovery scenario.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer: Festive events in 1H24 and higher social aid to cushion soft recovery in FY24 (OVERWEIGHT)

<ul><li>Within our FMCG coverage, we expect UNVR to benefit the least from the upcoming year-end holidays and election-related spending, as our channel check indicated potential impact from recent negative campaign on its products.</li><li>We lowered our FY23-24F net profit estimates by -5.8%/ -6.8% and our TP to Rp3,200 (from Rp4,100 prev.), and maintain our Hold rating.</li><li>In Nov-Dec23, the government aims to disburse IDR7.5tn of social assistance funds with an additional IDR2.7tn in the form of rice distribution.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Within our FMCG coverage, we expect UNVR to benefit the least from the upcoming year-end holidays and election-related spending, as our channel check indicated potential impact from recent negative campaign on its products.We lowered our FY23-24F net profit estimates by -5.8%/ -6.8% and our TP to Rp3,200 (from Rp4,100 prev.), and maintain our Hold rating.In Nov-Dec23, the government aims to disburse IDR7.5tn of social assistance funds with an additional IDR2.7tn in the form of rice distribution.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Unilever Indonesia (UNVR.IJ) - Expect a Softer FY24 Growth Outlook

Indonesia

PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk manufactures soaps, detergents, margarine, oil and dairy based foods, tea based beverages, ice cream, and cosmetics.

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Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ)

UNVR IJ - MNC Sekuritas Equity Report February 22, 2024

UNVR's unsatisfactory performance, particularly in the late stages of FY23, is attributed to the "consumer sentiment" effect.

MNC Sekuritas

Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ) - The Milkmaid Cometh

Ultrajaya Milk will open a new distribution centre in 1Q2024, which should help to drive growth plus it looks to launch new product categories in...

Angus Mackintosh

Consumer: Room for Growth Is Still in Store (OVERWEIGHT)

We maintain our sector OW rating and expect ICBP (TP Rp13,000) and MYOR (TP Rp3,500) to fare better under a soft recovery scenario.

BRI Danareksa Research

Unilever Indonesia (UNVR.IJ) - Expect a Softer FY24 Growth Outlook

Within our FMCG coverage, we expect UNVR to benefit the least from the upcoming year-end holidays and election-related spending

BRI Danareksa Research

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