SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>SGX lists four stocks mining industrial minerals including tantalite, phosphate, limestone and marble, four coal mining stocks and three gold mining stocks. These 11 stocks are at different stages in the exploration, development, production cycle and have averaged a 19.0% gain in 2017 YTD.</li>
<li>
Of the three segments, mining industrial minerals has been the strongest performer in the 2017 YTD with an average 30.4% gain, led Alliance Minerals Assets. Coal was the next best performer with the four stocks…</li>
</ul>


SGX lists four stocks mining industrial minerals including tantalite, phosphate, limestone and marble, four coal mining stocks and three gold mining stocks. These 11 stocks are at different stages in the exploration, development, production cycle and have averaged a 19.0% gain in 2017 YTD.

Of the three segments, mining industrial minerals has been the strongest performer in the 2017 YTD with an average 30.4% gain, led Alliance Minerals Assets. Coal was the next best performer with the four stocks…


Average 19% YTD Gain in Key Mining Stocks

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>KTX upgrades our rating on SCGP to “Buy” from “Neutral,” with a new 2026E fair value of Bt20.35 based on the earnings yield method, assuming a required return of 5.35% and implying a target PER of 18.7x (versus the previous fair value of Bt17.55, based on a 6.20% required return).</li><li>We expect SCGP to report 3Q25E net profit of Bt1,047mn (+81% YoY, +4% QoQ).</li><li>For 4Q25E, we expect earnings to soften QoQ, pressured by a likely decline in profit margin from the previous quarter.</li></ul>

KTX upgrades our rating on SCGP to “Buy” from “Neutral,” with a new 2026E fair value of Bt20.35 based on the earnings yield method, assuming a required return of 5.35% and implying a target PER of 18.7x (versus the previous fair value of Bt17.55, based on a 6.20% required return).We expect SCGP to report 3Q25E net profit of Bt1,047mn (+81% YoY, +4% QoQ).For 4Q25E, we expect earnings to soften QoQ, pressured by a likely decline in profit margin from the previous quarter.

SCG PACKAGING Plc. (SCGP): 3Q25E Earnings Expected to Have Risen Both YoY and QoQ

Event-Driven

<ul><li>We have a positive view on SCPG's decision to acquire a 75% stake in the Intan Group to expand to the food and beverage packaging business in Indonesia.</li><li>Two-year core profit growth is expected to achieve a 23% CAGR, driven by potential capacity expansion and acquisition deals to support growth in the client base, which includes large producers of consumer goods.</li><li>We maintain our Buy rating, with the target price of Bt59.30/share (DCF, WACC at 6.9% and LT growth at 2%).</li></ul>

We have a positive view on SCPG's decision to acquire a 75% stake in the Intan Group to expand to the food and beverage packaging business in Indonesia.Two-year core profit growth is expected to achieve a 23% CAGR, driven by potential capacity expansion and acquisition deals to support growth in the client base, which includes large producers of consumer goods.We maintain our Buy rating, with the target price of Bt59.30/share (DCF, WACC at 6.9% and LT growth at 2%).

Acquisition of Stake in Intan Group in Indonesia

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Supun Walpola

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/scg-packaging-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28684:1" rel="noopener">SCG Packaging (SCGP TB)</a>’s short-term catalysts do not look attractive to us as we expect the Thai economy to decelerate further over the next 1-2 years. SCGP’s margins could also come under pressure if the current pricing gap wears-off with the decelerating demand. That being said, we like the fact that SCGP is expanding its regional foothold through M&amp;As and capacity expansions, and IPO proceeds should allow the company to pursue this strategy while maintaining debt to equity at a reasonable level. We like SCGP for its longer-term prospects but remain wary in the short-term.

SCG Packaging (SCGP TB)’s short-term catalysts do not look attractive to us as we expect the Thai economy to decelerate further over the next 1-2 years. SCGP’s margins could also come under pressure if the current pricing gap wears-off with the decelerating demand. That being said, we like the fact that SCGP is expanding its regional foothold through M&amp;As and capacity expansions, and IPO proceeds should allow the company to pursue this strategy while maintaining debt to equity at a reasonable level. We like SCGP for its longer-term prospects but remain wary in the short-term.

SCG Packaging IPO: Short-Term Catalysts Are Not Attractive

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/scg-packaging-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28684:1" rel="noopener">SCG Packaging (SCGP TB)</a> is the largest packaging paper producer and largest corrugated container producer in Southeast Asia, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. SCGP’s parent company is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-cement-pcl-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2589:1" rel="noopener">Siam Cement (SCC TB)</a>, which is a 99.04% shareholder. Following the SEC’s filing approval on 29 May, SCGP is in the process of engaging with potential cornerstone investors to raise $1.5 billion (50% more than the original target) in an October IPO, according to Reuters.   <div class="content-highlight">SCGP notes that the business has a long track record of growth spanning 20 years. SCGP opines that post-IPO, the growth should continue due to the combination of the ongoing shift to packaging solutions and the capital support to pursue growth initiatives. Unsurprisingly, the 1H20 was impacted by the COVID-19 outbreak but the situation in the key markets of Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia is improving. Overall, we think that SCGP’s fundamentals offer more positives than negatives. </div>

SCG Packaging (SCGP TB) is the largest packaging paper producer and largest corrugated container producer in Southeast Asia, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. SCGP’s parent company is Siam Cement (SCC TB), which is a 99.04% shareholder. Following the SEC’s filing approval on 29 May, SCGP is in the process of engaging with potential cornerstone investors to raise $1.5 billion (50% more than the original target) in an October IPO, according to Reuters.   SCGP notes that the business has a long track record of growth spanning 20 years. SCGP opines that post-IPO, the growth should continue due to the combination of the ongoing shift to packaging solutions and the capital support to pursue growth initiatives. Unsurprisingly, the 1H20 was impacted by the COVID-19 outbreak but the situation in the key markets of Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia is improving. Overall, we think that SCGP’s fundamentals offer more positives than negatives. 

SCG Packaging IPO Initiation: Shrink Wrapping

Indonesia

PT Fajar Surya Wisesa Tbk is a leading Indonesian manufacturer of packaging paper, producing industrial paper such as containerboard (liner and corrugating medium) and boxboard for consumer and industrial goods packaging. The company offers products like Kraft Liner Board, Corrugated Medium Paper, and Coated Duplex Board. Headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia, the company was founded in 1988.

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Fajar Surya Wisesa (FASW IJ)

Average 19% YTD Gain in Key Mining Stocks

SGX lists four stocks mining industrial minerals including tantalite, phosphate, limestone and marble, four coal mining stocks and three gold...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

SCG PACKAGING Plc. (SCGP): 3Q25E Earnings Expected to Have Risen Both YoY and QoQ

KTX upgrades our rating on SCGP to “Buy” from “Neutral,” with a new 2026E fair value of Bt20.35 based on the earnings yield method, assuming a...

Krungthai XSpring

Acquisition of Stake in Intan Group in Indonesia

We have a positive view on SCPG's decision to acquire a 75% stake in the Intan Group to expand to the food and beverage packaging business in...

Krungthai XSpring

SCG Packaging IPO: Short-Term Catalysts Are Not Attractive

SCG Packaging (SCGP TB)’s short-term catalysts do not look attractive to us as we expect the Thai economy to decelerate further over the next 1-2...

Supun Walpola

SCG Packaging IPO Initiation: Shrink Wrapping

SCGP is the largest packaging paper producer and largest corrugated container producer in Southeast Asia, according to Frost & Sullivan. SCGP’s...

Arun George

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