Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

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News from Caixin

Equity Bottom-Up

Hope Education Group Co Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Some global investors are urging Chinese private education giant XJ International Holdings Co. Ltd. to redeem half of its $350 million in bonds before maturity, as the creditors fear the Hong Kong-listed firm may intentionally default on repayments.</li><li>The bonds are due in 2026, but the creditors asked for the early redemption to be completed by March 2 in a letter sent to the Chinese company last month by their legal adviser, Chicago-headquartered global law firm Kirkland &amp; Ellis LLP.</li><li>The creditors are a group of large international investors who collectively hold no less than $154 million, or about 50%, of the bonds’ outstanding principal amount, according to the letter seen by Caixin.</li></ul>

Some global investors are urging Chinese private education giant XJ International Holdings Co. Ltd. to redeem half of its $350 million in bonds before maturity, as the creditors fear the Hong Kong-listed firm may intentionally default on repayments.The bonds are due in 2026, but the creditors asked for the early redemption to be completed by March 2 in a letter sent to the Chinese company last month by their legal adviser, Chicago-headquartered global law firm Kirkland &amp; Ellis LLP.The creditors are a group of large international investors who collectively hold no less than $154 million, or about 50%, of the bonds’ outstanding principal amount, according to the letter seen by Caixin.

Chinese Education Giant Urged to Repay Bondholders Early as Default Fears Mount 

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-east-education-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27843:1" rel="noopener">China East Education (667 HK)</a> is interesting as it is probably the only education company with no debt. Net cash amounted to Rmb2.1bn, or 42% of its market capitalisation. </li>
<li>Earnings have bottomed out and the marginal YoY decline in 1H23 is due to upfront costs for staff recruitment. Its vocational education focus also faces fewer regulatory risks.</li>
<li>We consider it a potential privatisation candidate at 0.8x P/B. Its major shareholders owned 75% of the company, leaving a free float of less than HK$1.4bn.</li>
</ul>



China East Education (667 HK) is interesting as it is probably the only education company with no debt. Net cash amounted to Rmb2.1bn, or 42% of its market capitalisation. 
Earnings have bottomed out and the marginal YoY decline in 1H23 is due to upfront costs for staff recruitment. Its vocational education focus also faces fewer regulatory risks.
We consider it a potential privatisation candidate at 0.8x P/B. Its major shareholders owned 75% of the company, leaving a free float of less than HK$1.4bn.


China East Education (667 HK): Getting More Interesting

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-education-group-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18218:1" rel="noopener">China Education Group (839 HK)</a> appears to be facing the headwinds from higher USD interest rate and reduction in capitalised interest. The intangible write-off is another drag on FY23.</li>
<li>Newly registered students increased 17.8% for FY24. With better average fees, this will help the topline. Our concerns are high finance and operating costs will erode revenue growth.</li>
<li>Consensus is overly aggressive and there are risks of downgrade. Earnings may re-accelerate in the future, but weaker 1H FY24F keeps us on the sideline in the short term. </li>
</ul>



China Education Group (839 HK) appears to be facing the headwinds from higher USD interest rate and reduction in capitalised interest. The intangible write-off is another drag on FY23.
Newly registered students increased 17.8% for FY24. With better average fees, this will help the topline. Our concerns are high finance and operating costs will erode revenue growth.
Consensus is overly aggressive and there are risks of downgrade. Earnings may re-accelerate in the future, but weaker 1H FY24F keeps us on the sideline in the short term. 


China Education Group (839 HK): Not so Encouraging in the near Term

<ul>
<li>Despite the rally in share price after trading resumption and a reasonable FY22 result, there are still several tough issues faced by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-yuhua-education" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23627:1" rel="noopener">China Yuhua Education (6169 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Cash management, especially for offshore; no dividend payout in the near term; availability of CB refinancing and weakened margins are just some of the challenges. </li>
<li>Conversion to profit-basis for its schools and the operating outlook for new schools are also added issues that it needs to address. In our view, risks still outweigh return.</li>
</ul>


Despite the rally in share price after trading resumption and a reasonable FY22 result, there are still several tough issues faced by China Yuhua Education (6169 HK). 
Cash management, especially for offshore; no dividend payout in the near term; availability of CB refinancing and weakened margins are just some of the challenges. 
Conversion to profit-basis for its schools and the operating outlook for new schools are also added issues that it needs to address. In our view, risks still outweigh return.


China Yuhua Education (6169 HK): Issues Are Not over Yet

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 35 adds and 28 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the March rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 527.</li>
<li>We expect 29 of the 35 inclusions to the HSCI will be added to Stock Connect, while 20 of the 28 HSCI deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
<li>19 stocks could be deleted from Stock Connect only since their average market cap has dropped below HK$5bn- unless the new threshold of HK$4bn is approved in the next week.</li>
</ul>


There are 35 adds and 28 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the March rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 527.
We expect 29 of the 35 inclusions to the HSCI will be added to Stock Connect, while 20 of the 28 HSCI deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.
19 stocks could be deleted from Stock Connect only since their average market cap has dropped below HK$5bn- unless the new threshold of HK$4bn is approved in the next week.


HSCI Index Rebalance: 35 Adds, 28 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

China

China New University operates private universities in Central and South West China.

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China New Higher Education (2001 HK)

Chinese Education Giant Urged to Repay Bondholders Early as Default Fears Mount

Some global investors are urging Chinese private education giant XJ International Holdings Co. Ltd. to redeem half of its $350 million in bonds...

Caixin Global

China East Education (667 HK): Getting More Interesting

China East Education is debt-free with strong net cash. Earnings have stabilised, and it faces fewer regulatory risks. It is a potential...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Education Group (839 HK): Not so Encouraging in the near Term

CEG is facing challenges from higher USD interest rates, reduced capitalised interest, and write-offs. Despite a 17.8% increase in new students,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Yuhua Education (6169 HK): Issues Are Not over Yet

Despite avoiding default on CBs, Yuhua still faces challenges from cash management, no near-term dividend payout, availability of CB refinancing...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSCI Index Rebalance: 35 Adds, 28 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

There are 35 adds & 28 deletes for the HSCI in March leading to 29 adds & 20 deletes for Stock Connect. 19 index constituents could be dropped from...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Chinese Education Giant Urged to Repay Bondholders Early as Default Fears Mount

Some global investors are urging Chinese private education giant XJ International Holdings Co. Ltd. to redeem half of its $350 million in bonds...

Caixin Global

China East Education (667 HK): Getting More Interesting

​China East Education is debt-free with strong net cash. Earnings have stabilised, and it faces fewer regulatory risks. It is a potential...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Education Group (839 HK): Not so Encouraging in the near Term

​CEG is facing challenges from higher USD interest rates, reduced capitalised interest, and write-offs. Despite a 17.8% increase in new students,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Yuhua Education (6169 HK): Issues Are Not over Yet

Despite avoiding default on CBs, Yuhua still faces challenges from cash management, no near-term dividend payout, availability of CB refinancing...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSCI Index Rebalance: 35 Adds, 28 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

There are 35 adds & 28 deletes for the HSCI in March leading to 29 adds & 20 deletes for Stock Connect. 19 index constituents could be dropped from...

Brian Freitas

China East Education is debt-free with strong net cash. Earnings have stabilised, and it faces fewer regulatory risks. It is a potential...

CEG is facing challenges from higher USD interest rates, reduced capitalised interest, and write-offs. Despite a 17.8% increase in new students,...