Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We welcome the regulators' formalization of financial asset classifications. This will gradually remove regulatory arbitrage and pave the way for further bank reintermediation.</li>
<li>The new rules will likely have limited impacts on bond holdings that have active secondary markets, but illiquid debt investment plans will come under more intense regulatory and auditor scrutiny.</li>
<li>We see an impact of 10-15bp on the listed banks' reported NPL ratios. That said, a handful of banks may be at risk of capital shortages if the environment worsens. </li>
</ul>


We welcome the regulators' formalization of financial asset classifications. This will gradually remove regulatory arbitrage and pave the way for further bank reintermediation.
The new rules will likely have limited impacts on bond holdings that have active secondary markets, but illiquid debt investment plans will come under more intense regulatory and auditor scrutiny.
We see an impact of 10-15bp on the listed banks' reported NPL ratios. That said, a handful of banks may be at risk of capital shortages if the environment worsens. 


Chinese Banks: New Asset Classification Rules | You Can Run but You Can't Hide

<ul>
<li>The Jan. PMI readings corroborate what investors had already known over the break. But it is noteworthy that SMEs appear much less upbeat than large corporations.  </li>
<li>SMEs account for 60% of GDP and an even higher proportion of job creation. Policy support has been keeping many of them afloat throughout the pandemic. </li>
<li>As the deadline on the PBOC's SME support program is fast approaching, small regional banks may bear the brunt of the impact on the financial system.</li>
</ul>


The Jan. PMI readings corroborate what investors had already known over the break. But it is noteworthy that SMEs appear much less upbeat than large corporations.  
SMEs account for 60% of GDP and an even higher proportion of job creation. Policy support has been keeping many of them afloat throughout the pandemic. 
As the deadline on the PBOC's SME support program is fast approaching, small regional banks may bear the brunt of the impact on the financial system.


China's Micro Loan Market: Key Takeaways from the Jan PMI

<ul>
<li>We expect to see a strong start to the week for China financials names, with sentiments buoyed by upbeat consumer spending data over the new year holiday.</li>
<li>Early signs point to relatively loose conditions in the interbank market as trading resumes across the board on Monday. The central bank's easing bias will likely continue.</li>
<li>We see more momentum for the sector ahead of Q4 earnings (brokers &gt; insurers &gt; banks). Stock selection will become more important thereafter.</li>
</ul>


We expect to see a strong start to the week for China financials names, with sentiments buoyed by upbeat consumer spending data over the new year holiday.
Early signs point to relatively loose conditions in the interbank market as trading resumes across the board on Monday. The central bank's easing bias will likely continue.
We see more momentum for the sector ahead of Q4 earnings (brokers &gt; insurers &gt; banks). Stock selection will become more important thereafter.


China Financials Weekly: Jan 30 | A Bubbly Opening

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As discussed in <a href="https://skr.ma/y2J0O" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Z Fin (1168 HK)'s Suspension: Expect Ou To Make An Offer</a>, following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-fin-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9999:1" rel="noopener">Z Fin (1168 HK)</a>'s suspension, an Offer from Ou Yaping, Z Fin's founder, was expected.</li>
<li>And that is what unfolded late last night (21st July). Ou is Offering HK$6.60/share, by way of a Scheme. Terms are final.</li>
<li>Terms are a 61.37% premium to undisturbed. Yet a 72.13% discount to NAV. Minorities are somewhat active looking at recent AGM voting. Yet terms are fair to listed peers. </li>
</ul>


As discussed in Z Fin (1168 HK)'s Suspension: Expect Ou To Make An Offer, following Z Fin (1168 HK)'s suspension, an Offer from Ou Yaping, Z Fin's founder, was expected.
And that is what unfolded late last night (21st July). Ou is Offering HK$6.60/share, by way of a Scheme. Terms are final.
Terms are a 61.37% premium to undisturbed. Yet a 72.13% discount to NAV. Minorities are somewhat active looking at recent AGM voting. Yet terms are fair to listed peers. 


Z Fin (1168 HK): Ou's "Fair" HK$6.60/Share Offer

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-fin-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9999:1" rel="noopener">Z Fin (1168 HK)</a> announced a scheme privatisation offer from Mr Yaping Ou at HK$6.60 per share, a 61.4% premium to the last close. The offer is final.</li>
<li>The offer is light and well below intrinsic value. Based on the August 2025 funding round, the implied value of Z Fin’s stake in ZA Global materially exceeds the offer. </li>
<li>While no disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake, the vote is not a foregone conclusion, particularly given the noticeable dissent at the recent AGM.   </li>
</ul>



Z Fin (1168 HK) announced a scheme privatisation offer from Mr Yaping Ou at HK$6.60 per share, a 61.4% premium to the last close. The offer is final.
The offer is light and well below intrinsic value. Based on the August 2025 funding round, the implied value of Z Fin’s stake in ZA Global materially exceeds the offer. 
While no disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake, the vote is not a foregone conclusion, particularly given the noticeable dissent at the recent AGM.   


Z Fin (1168 HK): Despite the High Takeover Premium, the Offer Is Well Short of Intrinsic Value

China

ZhongAn Online is China's first online-only insurance company, providing internet insurance services and insurance information technology services. It offers personalized products across health, digital life, consumer finance, and automotive ecosystems, and also provides IT consulting and digital banking services. The company was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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ZhongAn Online (6060 HK)

Chinese Banks: New Asset Classification Rules | You Can Run but You Can't Hide

New asset classification rules have officially been announced. We see this as a long-term positive for the sector as regulators continue to bring...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

China's Micro Loan Market: Key Takeaways from the Jan PMI

For the most part, the Jan PMI gauges were in line with investor expectations, although the more pessimistic SME sector may be a cause for concern...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

China Financials Weekly: Jan 30 | A Bubbly Opening

We expect a strong start to the week for the China financials space, after a new year holiday that confirms investors' hopes for a speedy recovery...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Z Fin (1168 HK): Despite the High Takeover Premium, the Offer Is Well Short of Intrinsic Value

The offer is light and well below intrinsic value. While no disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake, the vote carries risk, particularly...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Chinese Banks: New Asset Classification Rules | You Can Run but You Can't Hide

New asset classification rules have officially been announced. We see this as a long-term positive for the sector as regulators continue to bring...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

China's Micro Loan Market: Key Takeaways from the Jan PMI

For the most part, the Jan PMI gauges were in line with investor expectations, although the more pessimistic SME sector may be a cause for concern...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

China Financials Weekly: Jan 30 | A Bubbly Opening

We expect a strong start to the week for the China financials space, after a new year holiday that confirms investors' hopes for a speedy recovery...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Z Fin (1168 HK): Ou's "Fair" HK$6.60/Share Offer

This is an awful space to invest. 0.28x P/B appears a steal; but it's above the peer average. If illiquid arbs are your thing, pay up to HK$6.25...

David Blennerhassett

Z Fin (1168 HK): Despite the High Takeover Premium, the Offer Is Well Short of Intrinsic Value

The offer is light and well below intrinsic value. While no disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake, the vote carries risk, particularly...

Arun George