Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the resistance at 1,630/1,635 points and the support at 1,611 points (50-week EMA)/1,600 points.</li><li>Today's investment momentum is negative after the Cabinet approved a financial transaction tax of 0.11%.</li><li>We switch our rating to Buy (from Neutral), with a new fair value of Bt46.30 (vs. 33.41 previously), while the required return has been lowered to 6.3% (vs. 8.1% previously), implying 17% upside.</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the resistance at 1,630/1,635 points and the support at 1,611 points (50-week EMA)/1,600 points.Today's investment momentum is negative after the Cabinet approved a financial transaction tax of 0.11%.We switch our rating to Buy (from Neutral), with a new fair value of Bt46.30 (vs. 33.41 previously), while the required return has been lowered to 6.3% (vs. 8.1% previously), implying 17% upside.

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the resistance at 1,630/1,635 points and the support at 1,611/1,600 points.</li><li>Today's momentum is slightly negative due to the increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in Thailand and many countries around the world, raising concern about the return of strict containment measures.</li><li>The key issues this week include the MPC meeting on November 30, in which it is expected to raise interest rates by 0.25% to 1.25% (positive to banking stocks), and the Motor Expo 2022 from December 1-12 (positive to hire purchase and automotive and parts operators).</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the resistance at 1,630/1,635 points and the support at 1,611/1,600 points.Today's momentum is slightly negative due to the increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in Thailand and many countries around the world, raising concern about the return of strict containment measures.The key issues this week include the MPC meeting on November 30, in which it is expected to raise interest rates by 0.25% to 1.25% (positive to banking stocks), and the Motor Expo 2022 from December 1-12 (positive to hire purchase and automotive and parts operators).

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to gain, with the resistance at 1,630/1,649 points and the support at 1,612 points (200-day EMA)/1,607 points (50-day EMA).</li><li>Today's momentum is positive after the US reported October's CPI at +7.7% YoY, below the consensus estimate of 7.9% YoY, while the Republican Party is likely to gain a majority of seats in the House of Representatives.</li><li>The latest Fed Watch Tool shows an 80.6% probability of the Fed hiking interest rates by just 50 bps in the upcoming meeting in December.</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to gain, with the resistance at 1,630/1,649 points and the support at 1,612 points (200-day EMA)/1,607 points (50-day EMA).Today's momentum is positive after the US reported October's CPI at +7.7% YoY, below the consensus estimate of 7.9% YoY, while the Republican Party is likely to gain a majority of seats in the House of Representatives.The latest Fed Watch Tool shows an 80.6% probability of the Fed hiking interest rates by just 50 bps in the upcoming meeting in December.

Recommendation: Buy on Weakness, Sell on Strength

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A Brookfield/MidOcean consortium has made a conditional, non-binding, indicative proposal to acquire 100% of the shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a> at A$9/share in cash.</li>
<li>The offer values <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>'s equity at A$15.5bn and is a 54.9% premium to the last close. The premium is over 50% even using longer term VWAPs.</li>
<li>There will be changes to the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices to maintain the number of index members. We will know more once an indicative timeline is published.</li>
</ul>


A Brookfield/MidOcean consortium has made a conditional, non-binding, indicative proposal to acquire 100% of the shares in Origin Energy (ORG AU) at A$9/share in cash.
The offer values Origin Energy (ORG AU)'s equity at A$15.5bn and is a 54.9% premium to the last close. The premium is over 50% even using longer term VWAPs.
There will be changes to the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices to maintain the number of index members. We will know more once an indicative timeline is published.


Origin Energy (ORG AU): Indicative Proposal from Brookfield & MidOcean; Index Implications

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,636/1,649 points and the support at 1,612 points (200-day EMA)/1,607 points (50-day EMA).</li><li>We recommend trading buy on HMPRO, SPA and CRC.</li><li>Technically, the index is on an uptrend in the form of a rounding bottom (U-shape), moving toward testing the target resistance of 1,649 points.</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,636/1,649 points and the support at 1,612 points (200-day EMA)/1,607 points (50-day EMA).We recommend trading buy on HMPRO, SPA and CRC.Technically, the index is on an uptrend in the form of a rounding bottom (U-shape), moving toward testing the target resistance of 1,649 points.

Canada

Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. operates as an investment management firm. The Company focuses on property development, renewable energy, infrastructure, insurance, and private equity. Brookfield Asset Management serves customers worldwide.

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Brookfield Asset Management Lt (BAM US)

Two-Year Earnings to Mark a 39% CAGR

The SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the resistance at 1,630/1,635 points and the support at 1,611 points (50-week EMA)/1,600...

Krungthai XSpring

Today's Daily Report

The SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the resistance at 1,630/1,635 points and the support at 1,611/1,600 points. Today's momentum...

Krungthai XSpring

Recommendation: Buy on Weakness, Sell on Strength

The SET Index is expected to gain, with the resistance at 1,630/1,649 points and the support at 1,612 points (200-day EMA)/1,607 points (50-day...

Krungthai XSpring

Origin Energy (ORG AU): Indicative Proposal from Brookfield & MidOcean; Index Implications

A Brookfield/MidOcean consortium has made an NBIO for Origin at A$9/share, a 54.9% premium to last. There is a high probability of this going...

Brian Freitas

Market Outlook

The SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,636/1,649 points and the support at 1,612 points (200-day EMA)/1,607...

Krungthai XSpring

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