Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Unseasoned loans are especially high for 2 banks and very low for 2 others, divergent risks</li>
<li>Worsening China economy, geopolitical concerns, beware of well-held China banks</li>
<li>Rising losses at China's corporate suggests worse asset quality than reported</li>
</ul>


Unseasoned loans are especially high for 2 banks and very low for 2 others, divergent risks
Worsening China economy, geopolitical concerns, beware of well-held China banks
Rising losses at China's corporate suggests worse asset quality than reported


China Banks - Unseasoned Loans, Institutional Ownership, Corporate Losses

Asia Ex-J Consumer/ Transport analyst

Valerie Law, CFA

This is the inaugural report of “The Week that Was in Greater China@Smartkarma” that feature major insights on China, Macau, Hong Kong and Taiwan during the week. This is a collaborative report among <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/605" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:605">Daniel Hellberg</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/820" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:820">Scott Laprise/ 乐天虎</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/803" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:803">Valerie Law, CFA</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:9">Ke Yan, CFA, FRM</a>. It is written on a rotational basis amongst us at the moment, so if you would like to be included, do drop us a message.<h2>Macro</h2>Early in the week, China concluded its inaugural Belt and Road forum sealing deals with 68…

This is the inaugural report of “The Week that Was in Greater China@Smartkarma” that feature major insights on China, Macau, Hong Kong and Taiwan during the week. This is a collaborative report among Daniel Hellberg, Scott Laprise/ 乐天虎, Valerie Law, CFA, and Ke Yan, CFA, FRM. It is written on a rotational basis amongst us at the moment, so if you would like to be included, do drop us a message.MacroEarly in the week, China concluded its inaugural Belt and Road forum sealing deals with 68…

The Week that Was in Greater China@SmartKarma – Belt Road, Beef and Better Domestic Figures

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 12 September, Shenyang SASAC increased its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shengjing-bank-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:96:1" rel="noopener">Shengjing Bank Co Ltd H (2066 HK)</a> offer by 21.2% from HK$1.32 to HK$1.60. The IFA opines it is fair and reasonable.</li>
<li>The revised terms should ensure the support of key shareholders. However, the IFA analysis is flawed, and the revised offer is light.</li>
<li>While the 21 October vote on the delisting proposal should pass, the satisfaction of the minimum acceptance condition (90% of independent H shares) poses a challenge. </li>
</ul>


On 12 September, Shenyang SASAC increased its Shengjing Bank Co Ltd H (2066 HK) offer by 21.2% from HK$1.32 to HK$1.60. The IFA opines it is fair and reasonable.
The revised terms should ensure the support of key shareholders. However, the IFA analysis is flawed, and the revised offer is light.
While the 21 October vote on the delisting proposal should pass, the satisfaction of the minimum acceptance condition (90% of independent H shares) poses a challenge. 


Shengjing Bank (2066 HK): Minimum Acceptance Condition in Focus as Offer Opens

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank / Event-Driven

Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (3618 HK)

<ul>
<li>Last week, CICC Hong Kong and SOE Jilin Financial Holding Group tabled a rescue offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jilin-jiutai-rural-comm-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23735:1" rel="noopener">Jilin Bank (6122 HK)</a>, as discussed in<a href="https://skr.ma/UL5z1" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Jilin Bank (6122 HK): Another Hobson's Choice</a>
</li>
<li>This follows a similar bailout of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-jinzhou-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21014:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Jinzhou (416 HK)</a> in early 2024, as detailed in <a href="https://skr.ma/N19a2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bank of Jinzhou (416 HK) To Be Taken Private.</a>
</li>
<li>Tarring the sector with same brush is potentially oversimplifying the situation. But the issues faced by Jilin Bank and BoJ are unlikely to be isolated. Below I dig deeper.  </li>
</ul>


Last week, CICC Hong Kong and SOE Jilin Financial Holding Group tabled a rescue offer for Jilin Bank (6122 HK), as discussed in Jilin Bank (6122 HK): Another Hobson's Choice

This follows a similar bailout of Bank Of Jinzhou (416 HK) in early 2024, as detailed in Bank of Jinzhou (416 HK) To Be Taken Private.

Tarring the sector with same brush is potentially oversimplifying the situation. But the issues faced by Jilin Bank and BoJ are unlikely to be isolated. Below I dig deeper.  


Chinese RCBs: Two Bailouts. How Many More At Risk?

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>On the IPOs front, Campus Activewear got great coverage, while Rainbow and Shieldus appear to be struggling.</li>
<li>There were no large placements, apart from a selldown in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/areit-ayalaland-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28856:1" rel="noopener">Areit (AyalaLand REIT) (AREIT PM)</a> and a friends and family round in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongyuan-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24139:1" rel="noopener">Zhongyuan Bank (1216 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPOs front, Campus Activewear got great coverage, while Rainbow and Shieldus appear to be struggling.
There were no large placements, apart from a selldown in Areit (AyalaLand REIT) (AREIT PM) and a friends and family round in Zhongyuan Bank (1216 HK).


ECM Weekly (2nd May 22) - LIC, Shieldus, One Store, Campus, Rainbow, Kakao Pay, Uju, GoTo, Zhongyuan

China

Zhongyuan Bank provides comprehensive banking products and services across corporate, retail, and financial markets segments. Its corporate banking offers loans, trade financing, and deposit services, while retail banking provides personal loans, deposits, and wealth management. The bank also engages in inter-bank money market transactions and debt securities trading. It was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Zhengzhou, China.

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Zhongyuan Bank (1216 HK)

China Banks - Unseasoned Loans, Institutional Ownership, Corporate Losses

China concerns rising, we look at banks' unseasoned loans, institutional ownership, and losses of loss making companies in China - soaring.

Daniel Tabbush

The Week that Was in Greater China@SmartKarma – Belt Road, Beef and Better Domestic Figures

This is the inaugural report of “The Week that Was in Greater China@Smartkarma” that feature major insights on China, Macau, Hong Kong and Taiwan...

Valerie Law, CFA

Shengjing Bank (2066 HK): Minimum Acceptance Condition in Focus as Offer Opens

While the 21 October vote on the delisting proposal should pass, the satisfaction of the minimum acceptance condition (90% of independent H shares)...

Arun George

Chinese RCBs: Two Bailouts. How Many More At Risk?

This is largely an objective insight. There can be no guarantee/certainty why one bank may need to hoist the white flag, while another does not....

David Blennerhassett

ECM Weekly (2nd May 22) - LIC, Shieldus, One Store, Campus, Rainbow, Kakao Pay, Uju, GoTo, Zhongyuan

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)