Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this deep dive report, we initiate coverage on Softbank Group with a ¥6,300 target price and Neutral recommendation</li>
<li>We are cautious on global tech and consider that the main risk to the story but a recovery in China sentiment provides some offset</li>
<li>For Q3 results next week, we expect the defensive theme of the last two quarters to continue</li>
</ul>


In this deep dive report, we initiate coverage on Softbank Group with a ¥6,300 target price and Neutral recommendation
We are cautious on global tech and consider that the main risk to the story but a recovery in China sentiment provides some offset
For Q3 results next week, we expect the defensive theme of the last two quarters to continue


Softbank Group (Neutral) - Japan’s Global Tech Play: Initiation of Coverage and Q3 Preview

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.</li>
<li>The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.</li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.</li>
</ul>


PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.
The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.
In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.


China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Baozun delivered in-line 3Q22 results.</li><li>With priority on cost optimization and working capital efficiency, we expect BZUN to see margin improvement ahead (forecasting Non-GAAP OP at double digit YoY growth in FY23E), despite muted topline.</li><li>Epidemic resurgence would dampen 4Q22E momentum (forecasting GMV/rev +0%/-13% YoY), but the negative impact has been almost priced in.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Baozun delivered in-line 3Q22 results.With priority on cost optimization and working capital efficiency, we expect BZUN to see margin improvement ahead (forecasting Non-GAAP OP at double digit YoY growth in FY23E), despite muted topline.Epidemic resurgence would dampen 4Q22E momentum (forecasting GMV/rev +0%/-13% YoY), but the negative impact has been almost priced in.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Baozun (BZUN US) – Focus on enhancing brand management

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

<ul>
<li>Weimob has emerged from the pandemic stronger and leaner, further consolidating its leadership in China's e-commerce SaaS market. </li>
<li>Drawing insights into the supply side (merchants/brands) on  Alibaba platform, our bottom-up analysis suggests that Weimob potentially has a US$600mn revenue opportunity by 2025.</li>
<li>We value Weimob at US$3bn assigning 5xPS on its US$600mn revenue by 2025,  implying 25% CAGR over 3-year period. Patience needed to navigate high-inflation environment which pressures growth assets. </li>
</ul>


Weimob has emerged from the pandemic stronger and leaner, further consolidating its leadership in China's e-commerce SaaS market. 
Drawing insights into the supply side (merchants/brands) on  Alibaba platform, our bottom-up analysis suggests that Weimob potentially has a US$600mn revenue opportunity by 2025.
We value Weimob at US$3bn assigning 5xPS on its US$600mn revenue by 2025,  implying 25% CAGR over 3-year period. Patience needed to navigate high-inflation environment which pressures growth assets. 


Weimob (2013 HK): Strategic Patience Will Be Rewarded (Part 2)

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Chinese e-commerce is having a solid month with most names up 30% in June. Yet this seems more a dead-cat-bounce than a change in direction of the share price momentum.</li>
<li>While there’s plenty of additional downside to big e-commerce players in e-commerce, smaller ones such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baozun-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24184:1" rel="noopener">Baozun Inc. (BZUN US)</a> has limited down side with shares trading near 1.0x P/B multiple.   </li>
<li>Meanwhile <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huitongda-network-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33789:1" rel="noopener">Huitongda (9878 HK)</a> is yet to experience the post IPO sell-off and trading at expensive multiples. This raises an opportunity for a Long Bozun Short Huitongda trade.</li>
</ul>


Chinese e-commerce is having a solid month with most names up 30% in June. Yet this seems more a dead-cat-bounce than a change in direction of the share price momentum.
While there’s plenty of additional downside to big e-commerce players in e-commerce, smaller ones such as Baozun Inc. (BZUN US) has limited down side with shares trading near 1.0x P/B multiple.   
Meanwhile Huitongda (9878 HK) is yet to experience the post IPO sell-off and trading at expensive multiples. This raises an opportunity for a Long Bozun Short Huitongda trade.


China E-Commerce Pair Trade: Long Baozun Short Huitongda

United States

Baozun Inc. provides e-commerce solutions. The Company's services include website design, development and hosting, information technology infrastructure, customer service, warehousing, and logistics services, as well as digital marketing. Baozun serves customers in China.

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Baozun Inc. (BZUN US)

Softbank Group (Neutral) - Japan’s Global Tech Play: Initiation of Coverage and Q3 Preview

In this deep dive report, we initiate coverage at Neutral with a ¥6,300 target price. We think global tech will struggle but a recovery in China...

Kirk Boodry

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

Baozun (BZUN US) – Focus on enhancing brand management

Baozun delivered in-line 3Q22 results. With priority on cost optimization and working capital efficiency, we expect BZUN to see margin improvement...

CMB International

Weimob (2013 HK): Strategic Patience Will Be Rewarded (Part 2)

Our bottom-up analysis suggests Weimob has a US$600mn revenue opportunity and could achieve US$100mn net profit by 2025 and we value the company at...

Eric Chen

China E-Commerce Pair Trade: Long Baozun Short Huitongda

Unlike most of the tech/e-commerce IPOs in the recent past, Huitongda is yet to experience a post-IPO sell-off due to low trading volumes and the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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