Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.</li>
<li>Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.
Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."


Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Dabur’s 1QFY25 results were in line with the preview update</li><li>Domestic volume growth, although on an improving trend, was below our estimates of 6%</li><li>Rural continues to grow faster than urban areas on the back of company-specific initiatives such as expanding the distribution network, launching affordable price point packs and the increased acceptance of Ayurveda</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Dabur’s 1QFY25 results were in line with the preview updateDomestic volume growth, although on an improving trend, was below our estimates of 6%Rural continues to grow faster than urban areas on the back of company-specific initiatives such as expanding the distribution network, launching affordable price point packs and the increased acceptance of AyurvedaContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Dabur (1QFY25 Results Review): On Par Performance. Maintain ADD

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>The company’s consolidated revenue grew by 7% YoY to Rs 3,349 Cr with India business volume growing by 5.2%, led by recovery in rural markets, stable performance across the portfolio, distribution expansion and market share gains.</li><li>The company’s international business grew by 18.4% YoY (in cc terms).</li><li>The management highlighted with the normal monsoons it expects further recovery in the coming quarters. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The company’s consolidated revenue grew by 7% YoY to Rs 3,349 Cr with India business volume growing by 5.2%, led by recovery in rural markets, stable performance across the portfolio, distribution expansion and market share gains.The company’s international business grew by 18.4% YoY (in cc terms).The management highlighted with the normal monsoons it expects further recovery in the coming quarters. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Dabur India  - Rural Is Seeing Sustained Sign of Recovery; Maintain BUY

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We expect our consumer coverage to report revenue growth in mid-single-digits (6% yoy), driven by volume growth.</li><li>At an aggregate level, we expect revenue/EBITDA/net income growth of 5.6/6.3/6.7% respectively in 1QFY25.</li><li>Our ground checks suggest that the demand environment for FMCG products has started gradually improving because of (1) improving volume growth trends in rural areas on the back of a favourable base and the reducing impact of inflation</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect our consumer coverage to report revenue growth in mid-single-digits (6% yoy), driven by volume growth.At an aggregate level, we expect revenue/EBITDA/net income growth of 5.6/6.3/6.7% respectively in 1QFY25.Our ground checks suggest that the demand environment for FMCG products has started gradually improving because of (1) improving volume growth trends in rural areas on the back of a favourable base and the reducing impact of inflationContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG, QSR & Alco Bev (Q1FY25 Results Preview): On an improving trajectory

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>Vodafone Idea requests Rs.24,747 crore bank guarantee waiver for spectrum payments from DoT</li>
<li>Brookfield invests $550 million in Tamil Nadu's Leap Green Energy for renewable growth</li>
<li>Adani Ports commits $1.2 billion to Vizhinjam, Kerala's future container transshipment hub</li>
</ul>


Vodafone Idea requests Rs.24,747 crore bank guarantee waiver for spectrum payments from DoT
Brookfield invests $550 million in Tamil Nadu's Leap Green Energy for renewable growth
Adani Ports commits $1.2 billion to Vizhinjam, Kerala's future container transshipment hub


#29 India Insight: VI Bank Guarantee, Adani Ports Commits $1.2 Bn, Brookfield Investment

India

Dabur India Ltd. manufactures soaps, detergents, hair oils, tooth powders, antacids and processed foods. The Company sells its products worldwide.

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Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN)

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

Dabur (1QFY25 Results Review): On Par Performance. Maintain ADD

Dabur’s 1QFY25 results were in line with the preview update. Domestic volume growth, although on an improving trend, was below our estimates of 6%

HDFC Securities

Dabur India - Rural Is Seeing Sustained Sign of Recovery; Maintain BUY

The company’s consolidated revenue grew by 7% YoY to Rs 3,349 Cr with India business volume growing by 5.2%, led by recovery in rural markets

Axis Direct

FMCG, QSR & Alco Bev (Q1FY25 Results Preview): On an improving trajectory

We expect our consumer coverage to report revenue growth in mid-single-digits (6% yoy), driven by volume growth. At an aggregate level, we expect...

HDFC Securities

#29 India Insight: VI Bank Guarantee, Adani Ports Commits $1.2 Bn, Brookfield Investment

Vodafone Idea seeks waiver for spectrum payments, Brookfield invests in Leap Green Energy, Adani Ports commits to Vizhinjam container hub.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

Dabur (1QFY25 Results Review): On Par Performance. Maintain ADD

Dabur’s 1QFY25 results were in line with the preview update. Domestic volume growth, although on an improving trend, was below our estimates of 6%

HDFC Securities

Dabur India - Rural Is Seeing Sustained Sign of Recovery; Maintain BUY

The company’s consolidated revenue grew by 7% YoY to Rs 3,349 Cr with India business volume growing by 5.2%, led by recovery in rural markets

Axis Direct

FMCG, QSR & Alco Bev (Q1FY25 Results Preview): On an improving trajectory

We expect our consumer coverage to report revenue growth in mid-single-digits (6% yoy), driven by volume growth. At an aggregate level, we expect...

HDFC Securities

#29 India Insight: VI Bank Guarantee, Adani Ports Commits $1.2 Bn, Brookfield Investment

​Vodafone Idea seeks waiver for spectrum payments, Brookfield invests in Leap Green Energy, Adani Ports commits to Vizhinjam container hub.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Vodafone Idea seeks waiver for spectrum payments, Brookfield invests in Leap Green Energy, Adani Ports commits to Vizhinjam container hub.