Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Event-Driven

Contemporary Amperex Technology / Event-Driven

Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK)

<ul>
<li>This note analyses price behaviour around thirteen regular HSI rebalance events (March 2022 to March 2026), covering 32 ADD and 5 DELETE stock-events.</li>
<li>We examine the announcement-to-implementation (WAI) window for systematic positioning effects and whether the resulting premium creates predictable post-implementation reversals.</li>
<li>We apply those patterns to the four stocks affected by the March 2026 rebalance (three ADDs, one DELETE) to assess positioning dynamics and post-implementation setup.</li>
</ul>


This note analyses price behaviour around thirteen regular HSI rebalance events (March 2022 to March 2026), covering 32 ADD and 5 DELETE stock-events.
We examine the announcement-to-implementation (WAI) window for systematic positioning effects and whether the resulting premium creates predictable post-implementation reversals.
We apply those patterns to the four stocks affected by the March 2026 rebalance (three ADDs, one DELETE) to assess positioning dynamics and post-implementation setup.


HSI Index Rebalance: Historical Patterns & March '25 Analysis

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Contemporary Amperex Technology / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-molybdenum-co-ltd-d9c46a67-e31f-431f-9f5f-02222265d701" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8585:1" rel="noopener">China Molybdenum (3993 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/laopu-gold-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44036:1" rel="noopener">Laopu Gold (6181 HK)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> in March, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a> will be deleted.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.5% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$9.65bn (US$1.23bn). Big capping inflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> and big capping outflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>With decent size to buy from passives, the A/H trades on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technolog" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">CATL (300750 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-molybdenum-co-ltd-d9c46a67-e31f-431f-9f5f-02222265d701" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8585:1" rel="noopener">China Molybdenum (3993 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cmoc-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28168:1" rel="noopener">CMOC Group (603993 CH)</a> become interesting.</li>
</ul>



CATL (3750 HK), China Molybdenum (3993 HK) and Laopu Gold (6181 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Index in March, while Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) will be deleted.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.5% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$9.65bn (US$1.23bn). Big capping inflows for Tencent (700 HK) and big capping outflows for HSBC Holdings (5 HK). 
With decent size to buy from passives, the A/H trades on CATL (3750 HK) / CATL (300750 CH) and China Molybdenum (3993 HK) / CMOC Group (603993 CH) become interesting.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: 3 Adds & 1 Delete as More A/H Pairs Selected

Equity Capital Markets

Contemporary Amperex Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>We examine H-share trading behavior around the six-month cornerstone lock-up expiry for A+H listings since 2025, assessing whether these events create systematic price pressure or primarily affect liquidity.</li>
<li>We align each stock around its expiry date (T0) and analyze price and trading volume, incorporating both market-adjusted returns and a measure of overhang intensity relative to typical liquidity.</li>
<li>Elevated trading activity emerges around expiry, but we find no consistent aggregate post-expiry underperformance; overhang intensity appears more linked to liquidity shifts than directional price moves.</li>
</ul>


We examine H-share trading behavior around the six-month cornerstone lock-up expiry for A+H listings since 2025, assessing whether these events create systematic price pressure or primarily affect liquidity.
We align each stock around its expiry date (T0) and analyze price and trading volume, incorporating both market-adjusted returns and a measure of overhang intensity relative to typical liquidity.
Elevated trading activity emerges around expiry, but we find no consistent aggregate post-expiry underperformance; overhang intensity appears more linked to liquidity shifts than directional price moves.


HK A+H IPO 2025 Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry: Price and Liquidity Evidences

<ul>
<li>Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> that will be implemented at the close on 6 March.</li>
<li>We highlight 8 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc-0533692c-6dae-4014-baa1-ed0b050638f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29259:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings (9987 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-xdc-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39917:1" rel="noopener">WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3sbio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:459:1" rel="noopener">3SBio Inc (1530 HK)</a> have better odds than others of being added to the index.</li>
</ul>


Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 6 March.
We highlight 8 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.

CATL (3750 HK), Yum China Holdings (9987 HK), WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK) and 3SBio Inc (1530 HK) have better odds than others of being added to the index.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Mar26

<ul>
<li>In this note, we take a statistical view of the A+H listing in 2025.</li>
<li>We examine time-series trends in IPO performance, subscription dynamics, market sentiment, and sponsor performance.</li>
<li>We also look at A-H premium dynamics post-listing and sector-level deal performance.</li>
</ul>


In this note, we take a statistical view of the A+H listing in 2025.
We examine time-series trends in IPO performance, subscription dynamics, market sentiment, and sponsor performance.
We also look at A-H premium dynamics post-listing and sector-level deal performance.


HK A+H IPO 2025: Essential Statistics Ahead of the 2026 Wave

China

Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited. operates as a battery products manufacturing company. The Company produces and sells power battery materials, energy storage batteries energy storage battery cells, systems, and other products. Contemporary Amperex Technology also provides batteries recycling services.

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH)

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Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH)

HSI Index Rebalance: Historical Patterns & March '25 Analysis

HSI March 2026 rebalance: positioning timing, reversal patterns, and flow-impact analysis across 12 completed events with actionable signals for...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: 3 Adds & 1 Delete as More A/H Pairs Selected

There are 3 adds, 1 delete for the HSI to take us to 90 members. We should get to the 100-target early 2027. With mainland China closed for the...

Brian Freitas

HK A+H IPO 2025 Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry: Price and Liquidity Evidences

Do A+H cornerstone lock-up expiries trigger meaningful selling pressure? We analyze price and liquidity patterns around T0 — and the evidence...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Mar26

We highlight 8 potential adds to the HSI in March. CATL is still a high prob add along with Healthcare names. Estimated turnover is 4.1% and trade...

Brian Freitas

HK A+H IPO 2025: Essential Statistics Ahead of the 2026 Wave

A+H IPOs in 2025: with the A–H premium compression, why did some IPOs still work while most large deals failed to deliver excess returns?

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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